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Accurate remaining useful life (RUL) prediction hinges on the quality of health indicators (HIs), yet existing methods often fail to disentangle complex degradation mechanisms in multi-sensor systems or quantify uncertainty in HI…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-12-01 Lucas Thil , Jesse Read , Rim Kaddah , Guillaume Doquet

Accurate Remaining Useful Life (RUL) prediction coupled with uncertainty quantification remains a critical challenge in aerospace prognostics. This research introduces a novel uncertainty-aware deep learning framework that learns aleatoric…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-11-27 Krishang Sharma

A core part of maintenance planning is a monitoring system that provides a good prognosis on health and degradation, often expressed as remaining useful life (RUL). Most of the current data-driven approaches for RUL prediction focus on…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-09-25 Ahbishek Srinivasan , Juan Carlos Andresen , Anders Holst

On top of machine learning models, uncertainty quantification (UQ) functions as an essential layer of safety assurance that could lead to more principled decision making by enabling sound risk assessment and management. The safety and…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-03-28 Venkat Nemani , Luca Biggio , Xun Huan , Zhen Hu , Olga Fink , Anh Tran , Yan Wang , Xiaoge Zhang , Chao Hu

The importance of uncertainty quantification is increasingly recognized in the diverse field of machine learning. Accurately assessing model prediction uncertainty can help provide deeper understanding and confidence for researchers and…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-12-03 Tianyi Chen , Yingzhou Lu , Nan Hao , Yuanyuan Zhang , Capucine Van Rechem , Jintai Chen , Tianfan Fu

Reliable uncertainty quantification on RUL prediction is crucial for informative decision-making in predictive maintenance. In this context, we assess some of the latest developments in the field of uncertainty quantification for…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-02-10 Luis Basora , Arthur Viens , Manuel Arias Chao , Xavier Olive

Rotating machinery is essential to modern life, from power generation to transportation and a host of other industrial applications. Since such equipment generally operates under challenging working conditions, which can lead to untimely…

Signal Processing · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2021-09-27 Zhaoyi Xu , Yanjie Guo , Joseph Homer Saleh

Accurately estimating a Health Index (HI) from condition monitoring data (CM) is essential for reliable and interpretable prognostics and health management (PHM) in complex systems. In most scenarios, complex systems operate under varying…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-05-09 Kristupas Bajarunas , Marcia L. Baptista , Kai Goebel , Manuel A. Chao

Many approaches for estimation of Remaining Useful Life (RUL) of a machine, using its operational sensor data, make assumptions about how a system degrades or a fault evolves, e.g., exponential degradation. However, in many domains…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2016-08-23 Pankaj Malhotra , Vishnu TV , Anusha Ramakrishnan , Gaurangi Anand , Lovekesh Vig , Puneet Agarwal , Gautam Shroff

Vital signs, such as heart rate and blood pressure, are critical indicators of patient health and are widely used in clinical monitoring and decision-making. While deep learning models have shown promise in forecasting these signals, their…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-09-18 Li Rong Wang , Thomas C. Henderson , Yew Soon Ong , Yih Yng Ng , Xiuyi Fan

Estimating uncertainty is at the core of performing scientific measurements in HEP: a measurement is not useful without an estimate of its uncertainty. The goal of uncertainty quantification (UQ) is inextricably linked to the question, "how…

High Energy Physics - Experiment · Physics 2022-11-02 Thomas Y. Chen , Biprateep Dey , Aishik Ghosh , Michael Kagan , Brian Nord , Nesar Ramachandra

Ensuring the runtime safety of autonomous systems remains challenging due to deep learning components' inherent uncertainty and their sensitivity to environmental changes. In this paper, we propose an enhancement of traditional uncertainty…

Software Engineering · Computer Science 2025-07-08 Radouane Bouchekir , Michell Guzman Cancimance

To facilitate healthcare delivery, language models (LMs) have significant potential for clinical prediction tasks using electronic health records (EHRs). However, in these high-stakes applications, unreliable decisions can result in high…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2024-11-07 Zizhang Chen , Peizhao Li , Xiaomeng Dong , Pengyu Hong

The main objective of Prognostics and Health Management is to estimate the Remaining Useful Lifetime (RUL), namely, the time that a system or a piece of equipment is still in working order before starting to function incorrectly. In recent…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-01-02 Alireza Javanmardi , Eyke Hüllermeier

Remaining Useful Life (RUL) estimation is the problem of inferring how long a certain industrial asset can be expected to operate within its defined specifications. Deploying successful RUL prediction methods in real-life applications is a…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-04-09 Luca Biggio , Alexander Wieland , Manuel Arias Chao , Iason Kastanis , Olga Fink

Uncertainty quantification is crucial for building reliable and trustable machine learning systems. We propose to estimate uncertainty in recurrent neural networks (RNNs) via stochastic discrete state transitions over recurrent timesteps.…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-11-25 Cheng Wang , Carolin Lawrence , Mathias Niepert

Uncertainty quantification is a key pillar of trustworthy machine learning. It enables safe reactions under unsafe inputs, like predicting only when the machine learning model detects sufficient evidence, discarding anomalous data, or…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-08-27 Michael Kirchhof

Prediction of Remaining Useful Lifetime(RUL) in the modern manufacturing and automation workplace for machines and tools is essential in Industry 4.0. This is clearly evident as continuous tool wear, or worse, sudden machine breakdown will…

Signal Processing · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2022-07-05 Haoren Guo , Haiyue Zhu , Jiahui Wang , Vadakkepat Prahlad , Weng Khuen Ho , Tong Heng Lee

Uncertainty Quantification (UQ) is pivotal in enhancing the robustness, reliability, and interpretability of Machine Learning (ML) systems for healthcare, optimizing resources and improving patient care. Despite the emergence of ML-based…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-05-07 L. Julián Lechuga López , Shaza Elsharief , Dhiyaa Al Jorf , Firas Darwish , Congbo Ma , Farah E. Shamout

Health-aware control (HAC) has emerged as one of the domains where control synthesis is sought based upon the failure prognostics of system/component or the Remaining Useful Life (RUL) predictions of critical components. The fact that…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2020-10-20 Mayank Shekhar Jha , Philippe Weber , Didier Theilliol , Jean-Christophe Ponsart , Didier Maquin
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