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In high-dimensional classification settings, we wish to seek a balance between high power and ensuring control over a desired loss function. In many settings, the points most likely to be misclassified are those who lie near the decision…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2017-06-06 Arun Srinivasan

In the drug discovery process, where experiments can be costly and time-consuming, computational models that predict drug-target interactions are valuable tools to accelerate the development of new therapeutic agents. Estimating the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-07-22 Hannah Rosa Friesacher , Ola Engkvist , Lewis Mervin , Yves Moreau , Adam Arany

Constrained optimization problems appear in a wide variety of challenging real-world problems, where constraints often capture the physics of the underlying system. Classic methods for solving these problems rely on iterative algorithms…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2023-06-13 Meiyi Li , Soheil Kolouri , Javad Mohammadi

Some recent works observed the instability of post-hoc explanations when input side perturbations are applied to the model. This raises the interest and concern in the stability of post-hoc explanations. However, the remaining question is:…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2022-12-13 Ruixuan Tang , Hanjie Chen , Yangfeng Ji

Reliable uncertainty estimation is critical for deploying neural networks (NNs) in real-world applications. While existing calibration techniques often rely on post-hoc adjustments or coarse-grained binning methods, they remain limited in…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-05-30 Pedro Mendes , Paolo Romano , David Garlan

Deep learning has revolutionized modern data science. However, how to accurately quantify the uncertainty of predictions from large-scale deep neural networks (DNNs) remains an unresolved issue. To address this issue, we introduce a novel…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-08-05 Yan Sun , Faming Liang

In an increasing number of applications designers have access to multiple computer models which typically have different levels of fidelity and cost. Traditionally, designers calibrate these models one at a time against some high-fidelity…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-06-02 Jonathan Tammer Eweis-Labolle , Tyler Johnson , Xiangyu Sun , Ramin Bostanabad

Analyzing classification model performance is a crucial task for machine learning practitioners. While practitioners often use count-based metrics derived from confusion matrices, like accuracy, many applications, such as weather…

Human-Computer Interaction · Computer Science 2022-07-29 Peter Xenopoulos , Joao Rulff , Luis Gustavo Nonato , Brian Barr , Claudio Silva

Code language models are increasingly adopted for both understanding and generative tasks. Despite their success, these models frequently produce overconfident incorrect predictions and underconfident correct predictions, undermining their…

Software Engineering · Computer Science 2026-05-20 Ravishka Rathnasuriya , Wei Yang

Proper scoring rules evaluate the quality of probabilistic predictions, playing an essential role in the pursuit of accurate and well-calibrated models. Every proper score decomposes into two fundamental components -- proper calibration…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-12-15 Teodora Popordanoska , Sebastian G. Gruber , Aleksei Tiulpin , Florian Buettner , Matthew B. Blaschko

To facilitate a wide-spread acceptance of AI systems guiding decision making in real-world applications, trustworthiness of deployed models is key. That is, it is crucial for predictive models to be uncertainty-aware and yield…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-03-04 Christian Tomani , Florian Buettner

A set of probabilistic predictions is well calibrated if the events that are predicted to occur with probability p do in fact occur about p fraction of the time. Well calibrated predictions are particularly important when machine learning…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2014-01-14 Mahdi Pakdaman Naeini , Gregory F. Cooper , Milos Hauskrecht

Calibration is a well-studied property of predictors which guarantees meaningful uncertainty estimates. Multicalibration is a related notion -- originating in algorithmic fairness -- which requires predictors to be simultaneously calibrated…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-11-06 Dutch Hansen , Siddartha Devic , Preetum Nakkiran , Vatsal Sharan

This paper proposes a robust approximation method for solving chance constrained optimization (CCO) of polynomials. Assume the CCO is defined with an individual chance constraint that is affine in the decision variables. We construct a…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2024-08-27 Bo Rao , Liu Yang , Suhan Zhong , Guangming Zhou

The partitioning of data for estimation and calibration critically impacts the performance of propensity score based estimators like inverse probability weighting (IPW) and double/debiased machine learning (DML) frameworks. We extend recent…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-05-20 Sven Klaassen , Jan Rabenseifner , Jannis Kueck , Philipp Bach

We introduce a framework for calibrating machine learning models so that their predictions satisfy explicit, finite-sample statistical guarantees. Our calibration algorithms work with any underlying model and (unknown) data-generating…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-10-03 Anastasios N. Angelopoulos , Stephen Bates , Emmanuel J. Candès , Michael I. Jordan , Lihua Lei

Estimates of predictive uncertainty are important for accurate model-based planning and reinforcement learning. However, predictive uncertainties---especially ones derived from modern deep learning systems---can be inaccurate and impose a…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-06-21 Ali Malik , Volodymyr Kuleshov , Jiaming Song , Danny Nemer , Harlan Seymour , Stefano Ermon

Recent studies have revealed that, beyond conventional accuracy, calibration should also be considered for training modern deep neural networks. To address miscalibration during learning, some methods have explored different penalty…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2023-04-13 Bingyuan Liu , Jérôme Rony , Adrian Galdran , Jose Dolz , Ismail Ben Ayed

Neural networks have proven successful at learning from complex data distributions by acting as universal function approximators. However, they are often overconfident in their predictions, which leads to inaccurate and miscalibrated…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-02-23 Jeffrey Willette , Juho Lee , Sung Ju Hwang

A typical desideratum for quantifying the uncertainty from a classification model as a prediction set is class-conditional singleton set calibration. That is, such sets should map to the output of well-calibrated selective classifiers,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-12-02 Allen Schmaltz , Danielle Rasooly