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The proximal causal inference framework enables the identification and estimation of causal effects in the presence of unmeasured confounding by leveraging two disjoint sets of observed strong proxies: negative control treatments and…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-12-16 Antonio Olivas-Martinez , Peter B. Gilbert , Andrea Rotnitzky

Real-world vaccine effectiveness has increasingly been studied using matching-based approaches, particularly in observational cohort studies following the target trial emulation framework. Although matching is appealing in its simplicity,…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-04-07 Emily Wu , Elizabeth Rogawski McQuade , Mats Stensrud , Razieh Nabi , David Benkeser

Variations in individuals' perceptions of vaccination and decision-making processes can give rise to poor vaccination coverage. The future vaccination promotion programs will benefit from understanding this heterogeneity amongst groups…

Quantitative Methods · Quantitative Biology 2024-11-05 Azadeh Aghaeeyan , Mark A. Lewis , Pouria Ramazi

Assessing immune responses to study vaccines as surrogates of protection plays a central role in vaccine clinical trials. Motivated by three ongoing or pending HIV vaccine efficacy trials, we consider such surrogate endpoint assessment in a…

Applications · Statistics 2008-12-18 Li Qin , Peter B. Gilbert , Dean Follmann , Dongfeng Li

Recently, the intervention calculus when the DAG is absent (IDA) method was developed to estimate lower bounds of causal effects from observational high-dimensional data. Originally it was introduced to assess the effect of baseline…

In most of the recent immunological literature the differences across antigen receptor populations are examined via non-parametric statistical measures of species overlap and diversity borrowed from ecological studies. While this approach…

Biomolecules · Quantitative Biology 2010-03-05 Grzegorz A. Rempala , Michal Seweryn , Leszek Ignatowicz

Observational data are often used to estimate real-world effectiveness and durability of vaccines. A sequence of trials can be emulated to draw inference from such data while minimizing selection bias, immortal time bias, and confounding.…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-09-03 Justin B. DeMonte , Bonnie E. Shook-Sa , Michael G. Hudgens

Results from randomized controlled trials (RCTs) help determine vaccination strategies and related public health policies. However, defining and identifying estimands that can guide policies in infectious disease settings is difficult, even…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-01-24 Mats J. Stensrud , Louisa H. Smith

While conducting probabilistic surveys is the gold standard for assessing vaccine coverage, implementing these surveys poses challenges for global health. There is a need for more convenient option that is more affordable and practical.…

Applications · Statistics 2026-03-30 Nathaniel Dyrkton , Shomoita Alam , Susan Shepherd , Ibrahim Sana , Kevin Phelan , Jay JH Park

In this study, we present an immuno-epidemic model to understand mitigation options during an epidemic break. The model incorporates comorbidity and multiple-vaccine doses through a system of coupled integro-differential equations to…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2025-05-28 Samiran Ghosh , Malay Banerjee , Amit K Chattopadhyay

It is increasingly common to collect pre-post data with pseudonyms or self-constructed identifiers. On survey responses from sensitive populations, identifiers may be made optional to encourage higher response rates. The ability to match…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-12-25 Raymond Pomponio , Bailey K. Fosdick , Julia Wrobel , Ryan A. Peterson

The test-negative design has become popular for evaluating the effectiveness of post-licensure vaccines using observational data. In addition to its logistical convenience on data collection, the design is also believed to control for the…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-05-15 Soumyabrata Kundu , Peng Ding , Jingshu Wang , Xinran Li

We propose a new continuous-discrete mixture regression model which is useful for describing highly censored data. We motivate our investigation based on a case-study in biometry related to measles vaccines in Haiti. In this case-study, the…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-07-27 Mário F. Desousa , Helton Saulo , Manoel Santos-Neto , Víctor Leiva

Viral infections trigger complex immune responses with heterogeneous outcomes shaped by nonlinear feedbacks. An ordinary differential equation model is developed to investigate immune response dynamics during viral infection, incorporating…

Quantitative Methods · Quantitative Biology 2025-10-08 Xiaoxin Wang , Kai Kang , Leyi Zhang , Changjing Zhuge

Explicit knowledge of total community-level immune seroprevalence is critical to developing policies to mitigate the social and clinical impact of SARS-CoV-2. Publicly available vaccination data are frequently cited as a proxy for…

Applications · Statistics 2022-02-21 Yajuan Si , Leonard Covello , Siquan Wang , Theodore Covello , Andrew Gelman

We analyze infection spreading processes in a system where only a fraction $p$ of individuals can be affected by disease, while remaining $1-p$ individuals are immune. Such a picture can emerge as a natural consequence of previously…

Disordered Systems and Neural Networks · Physics 2021-12-06 V. Blavatska , Yu. Holovatch

During the COVID-19 pandemic, regulatory decision-making was hampered by a lack of timely and high-quality data on rare outcomes. Studying rare outcomes following infection and vaccination requires conducting multi-center observational…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-07-22 Malcolm Risk , Xu Shi , Lili Zhao

Indirect comparisons of treatment-specific outcomes across separate studies often inform decision-making in the absence of head-to-head randomized comparisons. Differences in baseline characteristics between study populations may introduce…

Applications · Statistics 2020-04-09 David Cheng , Rajeev Ayyagari , James Signorovitch

In vaccine trials with long-term participant follow-up, it is of great importance to identify surrogate markers that accurately infer long-term immune responses. These markers offer practical advantages such as providing early, indirect…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-08-28 Arthur Hughes , Layla Parast , Rodolphe Thiébaut , Boris P. Hejblum

Cluster-randomized trials are often conducted to assess vaccine effects. Defining estimands of interest before conducting a trial is integral to the alignment between a study's objectives and the data to be collected and analyzed. This…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-10-10 Kayla W. Kilpatrick , Michael G. Hudgens , M. Elizabeth Halloran