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Governments are increasingly considering integrating autonomous AI agents in high-stakes military and foreign-policy decision-making, especially with the emergence of advanced generative AI models like GPT-4. Our work aims to scrutinize the…
Background: What counts as violence is neither self-evident nor universally agreed upon. While physical aggression is prototypical, contemporary societies increasingly debate whether exclusion, humiliation, online harassment or symbolic…
AI-enabled military systems are a fixture of modern military conflict. Applications vary from autonomous drones for surveillance and attack to AI-supported target selection. The importance of AI for modern conflict shows also in public…
The spread of media bias is a significant concern as political discourse shapes beliefs and opinions. Addressing this challenge computationally requires improved methods for interpreting news. While large language models (LLMs) can scale…
Large language models (LLMs) are increasingly employed for decision-support across multiple domains. We investigate whether these models display a systematic preferential bias in favor of artificial intelligence (AI) itself. Across three…
Would artificial intelligence (AI) cut interest rates or adopt conservative monetary policy? Would it deregulate or opt for a more controlled economy? As AI use by economic policymakers, academics, and market participants grows…
Humanitarian negotiations in conflict zones, called \emph{frontline negotiation}, are often highly adversarial, complex, and high-risk. Several best-practices have emerged over the years that help negotiators extract insights from large…
This is the first of a series of short reports that seek to help business, education, and policy leaders understand the technical details of working with AI through rigorous testing. In this report, we demonstrate two things: - There is no…
AI models are already deployed in societies affected by armed conflict, and journalists, humanitarian workers, governments and ordinary citizens rely on them for information or for their work processes. No established practice exists for…
To some, the advent of artificial intelligence (AI) promises better decision-making and increased military effectiveness while reducing the influence of human error and emotions. However, there is still debate about how AI systems,…
Numerous decision-making tasks require estimating causal effects under interventions on different parts of a system. As practitioners consider using large language models (LLMs) to automate decisions, studying their causal reasoning…
Large language models (LLMs) are increasingly proposed as agents in strategic decision environments, yet their behavior in structured geopolitical simulations remains under-researched. We evaluate six popular state-of-the-art LLMs alongside…
The rapid advancement of LLMs sparked significant interest in their potential to augment or automate managerial functions. One of the most recent trends in AI benchmarking is performance of Large Language Models (LLMs) over longer time…
Large Language Models (LLMs) are increasingly used in educational settings as interactive tools for collaboration. However, their tendency toward sycophancy, aligning with user beliefs even when incorrect, raises concerns for learning and…
Decision-making is a fundamental capability in everyday life. Large Language Models (LLMs) provide multifaceted support in enhancing human decision-making processes. However, understanding the influencing factors of LLM-assisted…
Generative AI (GenAI) is increasingly used in survey contexts to simulate human preferences. While many research endeavors evaluate the quality of synthetic GenAI data by comparing model-generated responses to gold-standard survey results,…
Large Language Models (LLMs) have demonstrated their capabilities across various tasks, from language translation to complex reasoning. Understanding and predicting human behavior and biases are crucial for artificial intelligence (AI)…
Can AI reason about a war before its trajectory becomes historically obvious? Analyzing this capability is difficult because retrospective geopolitical prediction is heavily confounded by training-data leakage. We address this challenge…
Wargames are simulations of conflicts in which participants' decisions influence future events. While casual wargaming can be used for entertainment or socialization, serious wargaming is used by experts to explore strategic implications of…
Large Language Models (LLMs) are increasingly deployed across diverse contexts to support decision-making. While existing evaluations effectively probe latent model capabilities, they often overlook the impact of context framing on…