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In sports analytics, player tracking data have driven significant advancements in the task of player evaluation. We present a novel generative framework for evaluating the observed frame-by-frame player positioning against a distribution of…

Applications · Statistics 2026-03-24 Quang Nguyen , Ronald Yurko

Player tracking data have provided great opportunities to generate novel insights into understudied areas of American football, such as pre-snap motion. Using a Bayesian multilevel model with heterogeneous variances, we provide an…

Applications · Statistics 2025-02-25 Quang Nguyen , Ronald Yurko

A quest for uncovering influence of behaviour on team performance involves understanding individual behaviour, interactions with others and environment, variations across groups, and effects of interventions. Although insights into each of…

Physics and Society · Physics 2025-04-11 Hidemasa Ishii , Yohei Takai , Yuichiro Marui , Yoshihiro Yamazaki , Yusuke Kato , Hiroshi Kori

Focusing on motion of two interacting players in football games, two velocity vectors for the pair of one player and the nearest opponent player exhibit strong alignment. Especially, we find that there exists a characteristic interpersonal…

Physics and Society · Physics 2018-02-20 Takuma Narizuka , Yoshihiro Yamazaki

Tackling is a fundamental defensive move in American football, with the main purpose of stopping the forward motion of the ball-carrier. However, current tackling metrics are manually recorded outcomes that are inherently flawed due to…

Applications · Statistics 2025-01-08 Quang Nguyen , Ruitong Jiang , Meg Ellingwood , Ronald Yurko

Continuous-time assessments of game outcomes in sports have become increasingly common in the last decade. In American football, only discrete-time estimates of play value were possible, since the most advanced public football datasets were…

Traditional NBA player evaluation metrics are based on scoring differential or some pace-adjusted linear combination of box score statistics like points, rebounds, assists, etc. These measures treat performances with the outcome of the game…

Applications · Statistics 2023-09-21 Sameer K. Deshpande , Shane T. Jensen

The objective of this study was to incorporate contextual information into the modelling of player movements. This was achieved by combining the distributions of forthcoming passing contests that players committed to and those they did not.…

Applications · Statistics 2019-07-26 Bartholomew Spencer , Karl Jackson , Sam Robertson

Orientation is a crucial skill for football players that becomes a differential factor in a large set of events, especially the ones involving passes. However, existing orientation estimation methods, which are based on computer-vision…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-06-02 Adrià Arbués-Sangüesa , Adrián Martín , Paulino Granero , Coloma Ballester , Gloria Haro

Although the data-driven analysis of football players' performance has been developed for years, most research only focuses on the on-ball event including shots and passes, while the off-ball movement remains a little-explored area in this…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-09-06 Yisheng Pei , Varuna De Silva , Mike Caine

The purpose of this research is to create a machine learning-based smart coaching approach for football that can replace manual analysis with real-time feedback for trainers. In-depth analysis of football player data by humans is…

Signal Processing · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2023-02-08 Rahman Sahinler , Omer Burak Goktas , Berkay Mumcu , Damla Sen , Feyza Kocaturk , Huseyin Uvet

This article presents a holistic compound Poisson regression model framework to forecast number of corner kicks taken in association football. Corner kick taken events are often decisive in the match outcome and inherently arrive in batch…

Applications · Statistics 2023-11-08 Stan Yip , Yinghong Zou , Ronald Tsz Hin Hung , Ka Fai Cedric Yiu

The strategic orchestration of football matchplays profoundly influences game outcomes, motivating a surge in research aimed at uncovering tactical nuances through social network analysis. In this paper, we delve into the microscopic…

Physics and Society · Physics 2024-08-16 Ming-Xia Li , Li-Gong Xu , Wei-Xing Zhou

We consider the task of determining a football player's ability for a given event type, for example, scoring a goal. We propose an interpretable Bayesian model which is fit using variational inference methods. We implement a Poisson model…

Applications · Statistics 2020-09-24 Gavin A. Whitaker , Ricardo Silva , Daniel Edwards , Ioannis Kosmidis

We consider the task of determining the number of chances a soccer team creates, along with the composite nature of each chance-the players involved and the locations on the pitch of the assist and the chance. We propose an interpretable…

Applications · Statistics 2018-02-26 Gavin A. Whitaker , Ricardo Silva , Daniel Edwards

Given a monocular video of a soccer match, this paper presents a computational model to estimate the most feasible pass at any given time. The method leverages offensive player's orientation (plus their location) and opponents' spatial…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2020-04-16 Adrià Arbués-Sangüesa , Adrián Martín , Javier Fernández , Coloma Ballester , Gloria Haro

Numerous statistics have been proposed for the measure of offensive ability in major league baseball. While some of these measures may offer moderate predictive power in certain situations, it is unclear which simple offensive metrics are…

Applications · Statistics 2021-07-21 Blakeley B. McShane , Alexander Braunstein , James Piette , Shane T. Jensen

Defensive coverage schemes in the National Football League (NFL) represent complex tactical patterns requiring coordinated assignments among defenders who must react dynamically to the offense's passing concept. This paper presents a…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-03-30 Kevin Song , Evan Diewald , Ornob Siddiquee , Chris Boomhower , Keegan Abdoo , Mike Band , Amy Lee

The objective of the present study is to present a computational model of the motion of a single athlete in a team and to compare the resulting trajectory with experimental data obtained in the field during competitions by match analysis…

Biological Physics · Physics 2008-11-25 E. Grimpampi , A. Pasculli , A. Sacripanti

In recent years, great emphasis has been placed on the prediction of association football. Due to this, several studies have proposed different types of statistical models to predict the outcome of a football match. However, most existing…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-08-11 Roberto Macrì-Demartino , Leonardo Egidi , Nicola Torelli
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