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Improving the performance of solar flare forecasting is a hot topic in solar physics research field. Deep learning has been considered a promising approach to perform solar flare forecasting in recent years. We first used the Generative…

Solar and Stellar Astrophysics · Physics 2021-12-15 Zheng Deng , Feng Wang , Hui Deng , Lei Tan , Linhua Deng , Song Feng

Among the eruptive activity phenomena observed on the Sun, the most technology threatening ones are flares with associated coronal mass ejections (CMEs) and solar energetic particles (SEPs). Flares with associated CMEs and SEPs are produced…

Accurate forecasting of solar power generation with fine temporal and spatial resolution is vital for the operation of the power grid. However, state-of-the-art approaches that combine machine learning with numerical weather predictions…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-11-09 Jelena Simeunović , Baptiste Schubnel , Pierre-Jean Alet , Rafael E. Carrillo

We present an ensemble prediction system using a Deep Learning Weather Prediction (DLWP) model that recursively predicts key atmospheric variables with six-hour time resolution. This model uses convolutional neural networks (CNNs) on a…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2021-12-10 Jonathan A. Weyn , Dale R. Durran , Rich Caruana , Nathaniel Cresswell-Clay

In the 1990s, the constant error carousel and gating were introduced as the central ideas of the Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM). Since then, LSTMs have stood the test of time and contributed to numerous deep learning success stories, in…

Precise and timely traffic flow prediction plays a critical role in developing intelligent transportation systems and has attracted considerable attention in recent decades. Despite the significant progress in this area brought by deep…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-05-03 Wenzheng Zhao

Short-term load forecasting is one of the crucial sections in smart grid. Precise forecasting enables system operators to make reliable unit commitment and power dispatching decisions. With the advent of big data, a number of artificial…

Signal Processing · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2018-09-27 Tiantian Li , Bo Wang , Min Zhou , Junzo Watada

In this study, we present a deep learning-optimization framework to tackle dynamic mixed-integer programs. Specifically, we develop a bidirectional Long Short Term Memory (LSTM) framework that can process information forward and backward in…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-07-08 Dogacan Yilmaz , İ. Esra Büyüktahtakın

Streamflow forecasting is key to effectively managing water resources and preparing for the occurrence of natural calamities being exacerbated by climate change. Here we use the concept of fast and slow flow components to create a new…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-07-14 Miguel Paredes Quiñones , Maciel Zortea , Leonardo S. A. Martins

Long-Short-Term-Memory (LSTM) networks have been used extensively for time series forecasting in recent years due to their ability of learning patterns over different periods of time. In this paper, this ability is applied to learning the…

Signal Processing · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2020-06-30 Mayank Jain , Shilpa Manandhar , Yee Hui Lee , Stefan Winkler , Soumyabrata Dev

A Bayesian approach to solar flare prediction has been developed, which uses only the event statistics of flares already observed. The method is simple, objective, and makes few ad hoc assumptions. It is argued that this approach should be…

Astrophysics · Physics 2016-03-09 M. S. Wheatland

The advancement of distributed generation technologies in modern power systems has led to a widespread integration of renewable power generation at customer side. However, the intermittent nature of renewable energy poses new challenges to…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-01-31 Devinder Kaur , Shama Naz Islam , Md. Apel Mahmud , Md. Enamul Haque , Adnan Anwar

We analyzed the soft X-ray light curves from the {\sl Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellites (GOES)} over the last 37 years (1975-2011) and measured with an automated flare detection algorithm over 300,000 solar flare events…

Solar and Stellar Astrophysics · Physics 2012-07-18 Markus J. Aschwanden , Samuel L. Freeland

Time series forecasting plays a crucial role in diverse fields, necessitating the development of robust models that can effectively handle complex temporal patterns. In this article, we present a novel feature selection method embedded in…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-01-01 Raquel Espinosa , Fernando Jiménez , José Palma

This paper presents a post hoc analysis of a deep learning-based full-disk solar flare prediction model. We used hourly full-disk line-of-sight magnetogram images and selected binary prediction mode to predict the occurrence of…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-10-10 Chetraj Pandey , Rafal A. Angryk , Manolis K. Georgoulis , Berkay Aydin

Solar flares, along with other sun-originated events such as Coronal Mass Ejections, fast solar wind streams, and solar energetic particles are among the most relevant events in Space Weather. Moreover, solar flares are the most energetic…

Solar and Stellar Astrophysics · Physics 2022-11-21 Nicola Plutino , Francesco Berrilli , Dario Del Moro , Luca Giovannelli

The sunspot number (SSN), the total solar irradiance (TSI), a TSI reconstruction, and the solar flare index (SFI), are analyzed for long-range persistence (LRP). Standard Hurst analysis yields $H \approx 0.9$, which suggests strong LRP.…

Space Physics · Physics 2015-06-03 Martin Rypdal , Kristoffer Rypdal

The project aims to research on combining deep learning specifically Long-Short Memory (LSTM) and basic statistics in multiple multistep time series prediction. LSTM can dive into all the pages and learn the general trends of variation in a…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2017-10-13 Chuanyun Zang

Hybrid methods have been shown to outperform pure statistical and pure deep learning methods at both forecasting tasks, and at quantifying the uncertainty associated with those forecasts (prediction intervals). One example is Multivariate…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-02-28 Thabang Mathonsi , Terence L van Zyl

We present several methods towards construction of precursors, which show great promise towards early predictions, of solar flare events in this paper. A data pre-processing pipeline is built to extract useful data from multiple sources,…

Solar and Stellar Astrophysics · Physics 2020-01-08 Yang Chen , Ward B. Manchester , Alfred O. Hero , Gabor Toth , Benoit DuFumier , Tian Zhou , Xiantong Wang , Haonan Zhu , Zeyu Sun , Tamas I. Gombosi