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One essential component of operational space weather forecasting is the prediction of solar flares. With a multitude of flare forecasting methods now available online it is still unclear which of these methods performs best, and none are…

Space Physics · Physics 2020-08-04 Jordan A. Guerra , Sophie A. Murray , D. Shaun Bloomfield , Peter T. Gallagher

In this study we determine scaling relationships of observed solar flares that can be used to predict upper limits of the GOES-class magnitude of solar flares. The flare prediction scheme is based on the scaling of the slowly-varying…

Solar and Stellar Astrophysics · Physics 2020-07-15 Markus J. Aschwanden

Ensuring sustainability demands more efficient energy management with minimized energy wastage. Therefore, the power grid of the future should provide an unprecedented level of flexibility in energy management. To that end, intelligent…

Neural and Evolutionary Computing · Computer Science 2018-11-29 Daniel L. Marino , Kasun Amarasinghe , Milos Manic

Accurate climate forecasting is vital for Bangladesh, a region highly susceptible to climate change impacts on temperature and rainfall. Existing models often struggle to capture long-range dependencies and complex temporal patterns in…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-10-29 Usman Gani Joy , Shahadat kabir , Tasnim Niger

This study proposes a multi-resolution Convolutional Long Short-Term Memory (ConvLSTM) ensemble framework that leverages diverse temporal input resolutions to mitigate error accumulation and improve long-horizon forecasting of…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-05-25 Jihoon Kim , Heejung Youn

We present a case study of solar flare forecasting by means of metadata feature time series, by treating it as a prominent class-imbalance and temporally coherent problem. Taking full advantage of pre-flare time series in solar active…

Solar and Stellar Astrophysics · Physics 2021-05-26 Azim Ahmadzadeh , Berkay Aydin , Manolis K. Georgoulis , Dustin J. Kempton , Sushant S. Mahajan , Rafal A. Angryk

Time series prediction can be generalized as a process that extracts useful information from historical records and then determines future values. Learning long-range dependencies that are embedded in time series is often an obstacle for…

Neural and Evolutionary Computing · Computer Science 2018-10-25 Yuxiu Hua , Zhifeng Zhao , Rongpeng Li , Xianfu Chen , Zhiming Liu , Honggang Zhang

Since with massive data growth, the need for autonomous and generic anomaly detection system is increased. However, developing one stand-alone generic anomaly detection system that is accurate and fast is still a challenge. In this paper,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2018-12-03 Sooyeon Lee , Huy Kang Kim

In order to solve the problems such as difficult to extract effective features and low accuracy of sales volume prediction caused by complex relationships such as market sales volume in time series prediction, we proposed a time series…

Signal Processing · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2024-06-06 Jianyu Liu , Wei Chen , Yong Zhang , Zhenfeng Chen , Bin Wan , Jinwei Hu

Rising global energy demand from population growth raises concerns about the sustainability of fossil fuels. Consequently, the energy sector has increasingly transitioned to renewable energy sources like solar and wind, which are naturally…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2025-09-30 Afsaneh Mollasalehi , Armin Farhadi

We developed a reliable probabilistic solar flare forecasting model using a deep neural network, named Deep Flare Net-Reliable (DeFN-R). The model can predict the maximum classes of flares that occur in the following 24 h after observing…

Solar and Stellar Astrophysics · Physics 2020-09-02 Naoto Nishizuka , Yûki Kubo , Komei Sugiura , Mitsue Den , Mamoru Ishii

We developed an operational solar flare prediction model using deep neural networks, named Deep Flare Net (DeFN). DeFN can issue probabilistic forecasts of solar flares in two categories, such as >=M-class and <M-class events or >=C-class…

Solar and Stellar Astrophysics · Physics 2021-12-03 Naoto Nishizuka , Yuki Kubo , Komei Sugiura , Mitsue Den , Mamoru Ishii

Solar irradiance forecasts can be dynamic and unreliable due to changing weather conditions. Near the Arctic circle, this also translates into a distinct set of further challenges. This work is forecasting solar irradiance with Norwegian…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-01-20 Niklas Erdmann , Lars Ø. Bentsen , Roy Stenbro , Heine N. Riise , Narada Warakagoda , Paal Engelstad

Accurate short-term energy consumption forecasting is essential for efficient power grid management, resource allocation, and market stability. Traditional time-series models often fail to capture the complex, non-linear dependencies and…

Computers and Society · Computer Science 2026-01-27 Abhishek Maity , Viraj Tukarul

To create early warning capabilities for upcoming Space Weather disturbances, we have selected a dataset of 61 emerging active regions, which allows us to identify characteristic features in the evolution of acoustic power density to…

Solar and Stellar Astrophysics · Physics 2024-12-25 Spiridon Kasapis , Irina N. Kitiashvili , Alexander G. Kosovichev , John T. Stefan , Bhairavi Apte

Solar flares are among the most powerful and dynamic events in the solar system, resulting from the sudden release of magnetic energy stored in the Sun's atmosphere. These energetic bursts of electromagnetic radiation can release up to…

Solar and Stellar Astrophysics · Physics 2025-05-07 Julia Bringewald

Accurate photovoltaic (PV) power forecasting is critical for integrating renewable energy sources into the grid, optimizing real-time energy management, and ensuring energy reliability amidst increasing demand. However, existing models…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-05-08 Guang Wu , Yun Wang , Qian Zhou , Ziyang Zhang

The prediction of solar flares is still a significant challenge in space weather research, with no techniques currently capable of producing reliable forecasts performing significantly above climatology. In this paper, we present a flare…

Solar and Stellar Astrophysics · Physics 2022-10-12 Christian Thibeault , Antoine Strugarek , Paul Charbonneau , Benoit Tremblay

This paper presents an advanced Federated Learning (FL) framework for forecasting complex spatiotemporal data, improving upon recent state-of-the-art models. In the proposed approach, the original Gated Recurrent Unit (GRU) module within…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-10-02 Thien Pham , Angelo Furno , Faïcel Chamroukhi , Latifa Oukhellou

We study short-horizon forecasting of weekly terrorism incident counts using the Global Terrorism Database (GTD, 1970--2016). We build a reproducible pipeline with fixed time-based splits and evaluate a Bidirectional LSTM (BiLSTM) against…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-10-20 Oluwasegun Adegoke