Related papers: Measuring Geopolitical Alignment and Economic Grow…
We show that since the mid-1990s, the trade-promoting effects of tariff liberalization have been increasingly offset by deteriorating geopolitical alignment, slowing trade globalization after 2007. To quantify this barrier, we use large…
Growth rate of real GDP per capita, GDPpc, is represented as a sum of two components, a monotonically decreasing economic trend and fluctuations related to population change. The economic trend is modelled by an inverse function of GDPpc…
The growth rate of real GDP per capita in the biggest OECD countries is represented as a sum of two components - a steadily decreasing trend and fluctuations related to the change in some specific age population. The long term trend in the…
Today, the economy is greatly influenced by Artificial General Intelligence (AGI). The purpose of this paper is to determine the impact of the quantitative relations of AGI on the country's economic parameters. The authors use the analysis…
Economic growth is measured as the rate of relative change in gross domestic product (GDP) per capita. Yet, when incomes follow random multiplicative growth, the ensemble-average (GDP per capita) growth rate is higher than the time-average…
Economy correlations between the 19 richest countries are investigated through their Gross Domestic Product increments. A distance is defined between increment correlation matrix elements and their evolution studied as a function of time…
Growth rate of the world Growth Domestic Product (GDP) is analysed to determine possible pathways of the future economic growth. The analysis is based on using the latest data of the World Bank and it reveals that the growth rate between…
We study the impact of climate volatility on economic growth exploiting data on 133 countries between 1960 and 2019. We show that the conditional (ex ante) volatility of annual temperatures increased steadily over time, rendering climate…
Globalization processes interweave economic structures at a worldwide scale, trade playing a central role as one of the elemental channels of interaction among countries. Despite the significance of such phenomena, measuring economic…
This paper considers an often forgotten relationship, the time delay between a cause and its effect in economies and finance. We treat the case of Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) and economic growth, - measured through a country Gross…
The Gapminder project set out to use statistics to dispel simplistic notions about global development. In the same spirit, we use persistent homology, a technique from computational algebraic topology, to explore the relationship between…
Analysis of the urban population fraction data for sixteen populous countries over the last fifty years reveals a universal increase in urbanization, exhibiting four qualitatively distinct temporal patterns: (i) continuously accelerating…
Growth rate of real GDP per capita is represented as a sum of two components -- a monotonically decreasing economic trend and fluctuations related to a specific age population change. The economic trend is modeled by an inverse function of…
The fixed-event forecasting setup is common in economic policy. It involves a sequence of forecasts of the same (`fixed') predictand, so that the difficulty of the forecasting problem decreases over time. Fixed-event point forecasts are…
We analyze the fluctuations in the gross domestic product (GDP) of 152 countries for the period 1950--1992. We find that (i) the distribution of annual growth rates for countries of a given GDP decays with ``fatter'' tails than for a…
The gross domestic product (GDP) is the most widely used indicator in macroeconomics and the main tool for measuring a country's economic output. Due to the diversity and complexity of the world economy, a wide range of models have been…
Real GDP growth rate in developed countries is found to be a sum of two terms. The first term is the reciprocal value of the duration of the period of mean income growth with work experience, Tcr. The current value of Tcr in the USA is 40…
Growth in the global human population this century will have momentous consequences for societies and the environment. Population growth has come with higher aggregate human welfare, but also climate change and biodiversity loss. Based on…
We use the logistic equation to model the dynamics of the GDP and the trade of the six countries with the highest GDP in the world, namely, USA, China, Japan, Germany, UK and India. From the modelling of the economic data, which are made…
Political stability is crucial for the socioeconomic development of nations, particularly in geopolitically sensitive regions such as the Gulf Cooperation Council Countries, Saudi Arabia, UAE, Kuwait, Qatar, Oman, and Bahrain. This study…