Related papers: Nested importance sampling for Bayesian inference:…
Parameter inference is a fundamental problem in data-driven modeling. Given observed data that is believed to be a realization of some parameterized model, the aim is to find parameter values that are able to explain the observed data. In…
Implicit sampling is a weighted sampling method that is used in data assimilation, where one sequentially updates estimates of the state of a stochastic model based on a stream of noisy or incomplete data. Here we describe how to use…
Importance sampling with data-driven proposal distributions is widely used in practice. A common workflow first generates an auxiliary sample of size $N$ from an approximation of the target distribution, constructs a density estimate $\hat…
Multiplicative noise models are often used instead of additive noise models in cases in which the noise variance depends on the state. Furthermore, when Poisson distributions with relatively small counts are approximated with normal…
Bayesian inference for models that have an intractable partition function is known as a doubly intractable problem, where standard Monte Carlo methods are not applicable. The past decade has seen the development of auxiliary variable Monte…
Experimental design is crucial for inference where limitations in the data collection procedure are present due to cost or other restrictions. Optimal experimental designs determine parameters that in some appropriate sense make the data…
We establish an ordering criterion for the asymptotic variances of two consistent Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) estimators: an importance sampling (IS) estimator, based on an approximate reversible chain and subsequent IS weighting, and a…
Spurred on by recent successes in causal inference competitions, Bayesian nonparametric (and high-dimensional) methods have recently seen increased attention in the causal inference literature. In this paper, we present a comprehensive…
We introduce a novel approach to boost the efficiency of the importance nested sampling (INS) technique for Bayesian posterior and evidence estimation using deep learning. Unlike rejection-based sampling methods such as vanilla nested…
Bayesian inference was once a gold standard for learning with neural networks, providing accurate full predictive distributions and well calibrated uncertainty. However, scaling Bayesian inference techniques to deep neural networks is…
This paper deals with the Monte-Carlo methods for evaluating expectations of functionals of solutions to McKean-Vlasov Stochastic Differential Equations (MV-SDE) with drifts of super-linear growth. We assume that the MV-SDE is approximated…
The intrinsic dimensionality of an inverse problem is affected by prior information, the accuracy and number of observations, and the smoothing properties of the forward operator. From a Bayesian perspective, changes from the prior to the…
Importance sampling (IS) consists in biasing samples from a distribution $f$ towards another distribution $g$. Concretely, given samples $X_i$ from $f$, the IS measure is $$\hat{g}_n = \frac{1}{Z_n}\sum_{i=1}^n \frac{g(X_i)}{f(X_i)}…
For complex latent variable models, the likelihood function is not available in closed form. In this context, a popular method to perform parameter estimation is Importance Weighted Variational Inference. It essentially maximizes the…
Bayesian inference under a set of priors, called robust Bayesian analysis, allows for estimation of parameters within a model and quantification of epistemic uncertainty in quantities of interest by bounded (or imprecise) probability.…
This paper is concerned with the numerical solution of model-based, Bayesian inverse problems. We are particularly interested in cases where the cost of each likelihood evaluation (forward-model call) is expensive and the number of un-…
In variational inference, the benefits of Bayesian models rely on accurately capturing the true posterior distribution. We propose using neural samplers that specify implicit distributions, which are well-suited for approximating complex…
Models with dimension more than the available sample size are now commonly used in various applications. A sensible inference is possible using a lower-dimensional structure. In regression problems with a large number of predictors, the…
We propose a novel adaptive importance sampling scheme for Bayesian inversion problems where the inference of the variables of interest and the power of the data noise is split. More specifically, we consider a Bayesian analysis for the…
Many high dimensional integrals can be reduced to the problem of finding the relative measures of two sets. Often one set will be exponentially larger than the other, making it difficult to compare the sizes. A standard method of dealing…