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We study the feasibility of identifying epistemic uncertainty (reflecting a lack of knowledge), as opposed to aleatoric uncertainty (reflecting entropy in the underlying distribution), in the outputs of large language models (LLMs) over…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-02-28 Gustaf Ahdritz , Tian Qin , Nikhil Vyas , Boaz Barak , Benjamin L. Edelman

Despite widespread success in language understanding and generation, large language models (LLMs) exhibit unclear and often inconsistent behavior when faced with tasks that require probabilistic reasoning. In this work, we present the first…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2025-09-29 Mobina Pournemat , Keivan Rezaei , Gaurang Sriramanan , Arman Zarei , Jiaxiang Fu , Yang Wang , Hamid Eghbalzadeh , Soheil Feizi

Estimating hidden states in dynamical systems, also known as optimal filtering, is a long-standing problem in various fields of science and engineering. In this paper, we introduce a general filtering framework, \textbf{LLM-Filter}, which…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-09-25 Shiqi Liu , Wenhan Cao , Chang Liu , Zeyu He , Tianyi Zhang , Shengbo Eben Li

While Large Language Models (LLMs) have demonstrated exceptional multitasking abilities, fine-tuning these models on downstream, domain-specific datasets is often necessary to yield superior performance on test sets compared to their…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2024-03-15 Haoran Yang , Yumeng Zhang , Jiaqi Xu , Hongyuan Lu , Pheng Ann Heng , Wai Lam

As large language models (LLMs) are increasingly used for factual question-answering, it becomes more important for LLMs to have the capability to communicate the likelihood that their answer is correct. For these verbalized expressions of…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2025-12-15 Sophia Hager , David Mueller , Kevin Duh , Nicholas Andrews

Large Language Models (LLMs) have demonstrated impressive capabilities in code generation and are increasingly integrated into the software development process. However, ensuring the correctness of LLM-generated code remains a critical…

Software Engineering · Computer Science 2025-10-06 Thanh Trong Vu , Tuan-Dung Bui , Thu-Trang Nguyen , Son Nguyen , Hieu Dinh Vo

Pre-trained Language Models (PLMs) encode various facts about the world at their pre-training phase as they are trained to predict the next or missing word in a sentence. There has a been an interest in quantifying and improving the amount…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2024-10-18 Paul Youssef , Jörg Schlötterer , Christin Seifert

While Large Language Models (LLMs) have shown exceptional performance in various tasks, one of their most prominent drawbacks is generating inaccurate or false information with a confident tone. In this paper, we provide evidence that the…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2023-10-18 Amos Azaria , Tom Mitchell

Decoding strategies manipulate the probability distribution underlying the output of a language model and can therefore affect both generation quality and its uncertainty. In this study, we investigate the impact of decoding strategies on…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2025-09-23 Wataru Hashimoto , Hidetaka Kamigaito , Taro Watanabe

Over the past decades, researchers and ML practitioners have come up with better and better ways to build, understand and improve the quality of ML models, but mostly under the key assumption that the training data is distributed…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-10-14 Yeounoh Chung , Peter J. Haas , Eli Upfal , Tim Kraska

Large Language Models (LLMs) are known to hallucinate, whereby they generate plausible but inaccurate text. This phenomenon poses significant risks in critical applications, such as medicine or law, necessitating robust hallucination…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2024-10-23 Benedict Aaron Tjandra , Muhammed Razzak , Jannik Kossen , Kunal Handa , Yarin Gal

Large language models (LLMs) are increasingly used as decision-support tools in data-constrained scientific workflows, where correctness and validity are critical. However, evaluation practices often emphasize stability or reproducibility…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-03-18 Nazia Riasat

Despite their outstanding performance, large language models (LLMs) suffer notorious flaws related to their preference for simple, surface-level textual relations over full semantic complexity of the problem. This proposal investigates a…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2022-06-20 Michal Štefánik

When using large language models (LLMs) in high-stakes applications, we need to know when we can trust their predictions. Some works argue that prompting high-performance LLMs is sufficient to produce calibrated uncertainties, while others…

The proliferation of open-source Large Language Models (LLMs) from various institutions has highlighted the urgent need for comprehensive evaluation methods. However, current evaluation platforms, such as the widely recognized HuggingFace…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2024-11-01 Fanghua Ye , Mingming Yang , Jianhui Pang , Longyue Wang , Derek F. Wong , Emine Yilmaz , Shuming Shi , Zhaopeng Tu

Large Language Models (LLMs) are increasingly used to automate classification tasks in business, such as analyzing customer satisfaction from text. However, the inherent stochasticity of LLMs can create measurement error when the outcome is…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-04-24 Yichi Zhang , Ignacio Martinez

The widespread adoption of Large Language Models (LLMs) in critical applications has introduced severe reliability and security risks, as LLMs remain vulnerable to notorious threats such as hallucinations, jailbreak attacks, and backdoor…

Cryptography and Security · Computer Science 2026-04-07 Shide Zhou , Kailong Wang , Ling Shi , Haoyu Wang

Uncertainty estimation is important for deploying LLMs in high-stakes applications such as healthcare and finance, where hallucinations can appear fluent and plausible while being factually incorrect, making it difficult for users to judge…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-05-08 Mingcheng Zhu , Yu Liu , Tingting Zhu

Large Language Models (LLMs) are increasingly deployed for clinical reasoning tasks, which inherently require eliciting calibrated probabilistic beliefs based on available evidence. However, real-world clinical data are frequently…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2026-03-19 Yuta Kobayashi , Vincent Jeanselme , Shalmali Joshi

Large Language Model (LLM) inference systems present significant challenges in statistical performance characterization due to dynamic workload variations, diverse hardware architectures, and complex interactions between model size, batch…

Performance · Computer Science 2025-05-15 Kaustabha Ray , Nelson Mimura Gonzalez , Bruno Wassermann , Rachel Tzoref-Brill , Dean H. Lorenz