Related papers: Bayesian Optimal Stopping with Maximum Value Knowl…
Let $X_n,...,X_1$ be i.i.d. random variables with distribution function $F$. A statistician, knowing $F$, observes the $X$ values sequentially and is given two chances to choose $X$'s using stopping rules. The statistician's goal is to stop…
We study a budgeted hyper-parameter tuning problem, where we optimize the tuning result under a hard resource constraint. We propose to solve it as a sequential decision making problem, such that we can use the partial training progress of…
The Bayesian persuasion paradigm of strategic communication models interaction between a privately-informed agent, called the sender, and an ignorant but rational agent, called the receiver. The goal is typically to design a (near-)optimal…
Using duality theory techniques we derive simple, closed-form formulas for bounding the optimal revenue of a monopolist selling many heterogeneous goods, in the case where the buyer's valuations for the items come i.i.d. from a uniform…
We develop the theory and practice of an approach to modelling and probabilistic inference in causal networks that is suitable when application-specific or analysis-specific constraints should inform such inference or when little or no data…
Structure learning of Bayesian networks is an important problem that arises in numerous machine learning applications. In this work, we present a novel approach for learning the structure of Bayesian networks using the solution of an…
We consider a simple control problem in which the underlying dynamics depend on a parameter $a$ that is unknown and must be learned. We study three variants of the control problem: Bayesian control, in which we have a prior belief about…
We consider a finite horizon optimal stopping problem related to trade-off strategies between expected profit and cost cash-flows of an investment under uncertainty. The optimal problem is first formulated in terms of a system of Snell…
In this paper, the problem of distributed opportunistic channel access in wireless relaying is investigated. A relay network with multiple source-destination pairs and multiple relays is considered. All the source nodes contend through a…
We consider an insurance company modelling its surplus process by a Brownian motion with drift. Our target is to maximise the expected exponential utility of discounted dividend payments, given that the dividend rates are bounded by some…
We extend the classical setting of an optimal stopping problem under full information to include for problems with an unknown state. The framework allows the unknown state to influence (i) the drift of the underlying process, (ii) the…
We study a classic Bayesian mechanism design setting of monopoly problem for an additive buyer in the presence of budgets. In this setting a monopolist seller with $m$ heterogeneous items faces a single buyer and seeks to maximize her…
We consider a Bayesian persuasion problem where the persuader and the decision maker communicate through an imperfect channel that has a fixed and limited number of messages and is subject to exogenous noise. We provide an upper bound on…
We study an optimal dividend problem under a bankruptcy constraint. Firms face a trade-off between potential bankruptcy and extraction of profits. In contrast to previous works, general cash flow drifts, including Ornstein--Uhlenbeck and…
In this paper we consider the problem of finding stable maxima of expensive (to evaluate) functions. We are motivated by the optimisation of physical and industrial processes where, for some input ranges, small and unavoidable variations in…
We study online Bayesian persuasion problems in which an informed sender repeatedly faces a receiver with the goal of influencing their behavior through the provision of payoff-relevant information. Previous works assume that the sender has…
We study the problem of allocating $T$ sequentially arriving items among $n$ homogeneous agents under the constraint that each agent must receive a pre-specified fraction of all items, with the objective of maximizing the agents' total…
Designing predictive controllers towards optimal closed-loop performance while maintaining safety and stability is challenging. This work explores closed-loop learning for predictive control parameters under imperfect information while…
We study the problem of learning revenue-optimal multi-bidder auctions from samples when the samples of bidders' valuations can be adversarially corrupted or drawn from distributions that are adversarially perturbed. First, we prove tight…
Portfolio construction is the science of balancing reward and risk; it is at the core of modern finance. In this paper, we tackle the question of optimal decision-making within a Bayesian paradigm, starting from a decision-theoretic…