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To further develop the statistical inference problem for heterogeneous treatment effects, this paper builds on Breiman's (2001) random forest tree (RFT)and Wager et al.'s (2018) causal tree to parameterize the nonparametric problem using…

Econometrics · Economics 2022-03-15 Lai Xinglin

Connected acyclic graphs (trees) are data objects that hierarchically organize categories. Collections of trees arise in a diverse variety of fields, including evolutionary biology, public health, machine learning, social sciences and…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-12-01 Maria Alejandra Valdez Cabrera , Amy D Willis , Armeen Taeb

Traditional statistical inference in cluster randomized trials typically invokes the asymptotic theory that requires the number of clusters to approach infinity. In this article, we propose an alternative conformal causal inference…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-10-03 Bingkai Wang , Fan Li , Mengxin Yu

Causal discovery is a crucial initial step in establishing causality from empirical data and background knowledge. Numerous algorithms have been developed for this purpose. Among them, the score-matching method has demonstrated superior…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-04-14 Hao Chen , Kai Yi

Causally insufficient structures (models with latent or hidden variables, or with confounding etc.) of joint probability distributions have been subject of intense study not only in statistics, but also in various AI systems. In AI, belief…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2018-06-04 Mieczysław A. Kłopotek

Estimating conditional means using only the marginal means available from aggregate data is commonly known as the ecological inference problem (EI). We provide a reassessment of EI, including a new formalization of identification conditions…

Applications · Statistics 2026-01-13 Shiro Kuriwaki , Cory McCartan

Amidst the rapid expansion of Machine Learning (ML) and Large Language Models (LLMs), understanding the semantics within their mechanisms is vital. Causal analyses define semantics, while gradient-based methods are essential to eXplainable…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2024-03-26 Yosuke Miyanishi , Minh Le Nguyen

This paper proposes FREEtree, a tree-based method for high dimensional longitudinal data with correlated features. Popular machine learning approaches, like Random Forests, commonly used for variable selection do not perform well when there…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-06-18 Yuancheng Xu , Athanasse Zafirov , R. Michael Alvarez , Dan Kojis , Min Tan , Christina M. Ramirez

The traditional two-stage approach to causal inference first identifies a single causal model (or equivalence class of models), which is then used to answer causal queries. However, this neglects any epistemic model uncertainty. In…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-04-25 Christian Toth , Christian Knoll , Franz Pernkopf , Robert Peharz

We propose a constraint-based algorithm, which automatically determines causal relevance thresholds, to infer causal networks from data. We call these topological thresholds. We present two methods for determining the threshold: the first…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-04-24 Filipe Barroso , Diogo Gomes , Gareth J. Baxter

Class-Incremental Learning (CIL) is a practical and challenging problem for achieving general artificial intelligence. Recently, Pre-Trained Models (PTMs) have led to breakthroughs in both visual and natural language processing tasks.…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-02-16 Junhao Zheng , Ruiyan Wang , Chongzhi Zhang , Huawen Feng , Qianli Ma

This paper proposes the use of causal modeling to detect and mitigate algorithmic bias that is nonlinear in the protected attribute. We provide a general overview of our approach. We use the German Credit data set, which is available for…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-05-08 Wendy Hui , Wai Kwong Lau

The discovery of causal relationships from high-dimensional data is a major open problem in bioinformatics. Machine learning and feature attribution models have shown great promise in this context but lack causal interpretation. Here, we…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-04-26 Payam Dibaeinia , Saurabh Sinha

Learning about cause and effect is arguably the main goal in applied econometrics. In practice, the validity of these causal inferences is contingent on a number of critical assumptions regarding the type of data that has been collected and…

Econometrics · Economics 2023-03-03 Paul Hünermund , Elias Bareinboim

The ever-growing collections of data series create a pressing need for efficient similarity search, which serves as the backbone for various analytics pipelines. Recent studies have shown that tree-based series indexes excel in many…

Databases · Computer Science 2025-02-05 Qitong Wang , Ioana Ileana , Themis Palpanas

Given a rooted tree and a ranking of its leaves, what is the minimum number of inversions of the leaves that can be attained by ordering the tree? This variation of the problem of counting inversions in arrays originated in mathematical…

Data Structures and Algorithms · Computer Science 2024-07-02 Ivan Hu , Dieter van Melkebeek , Andrew Morgan

Random forests are widely used in regression. However, the decision trees used as base learners are poor approximators of linear relationships. To address this limitation we propose RaFFLE (Random Forest Featuring Linear Extensions), a…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-02-17 Jakob Raymaekers , Peter J. Rousseeuw , Thomas Servotte , Tim Verdonck , Ruicong Yao

As large language models (LLMs) witness increasing deployment in complex, high-stakes decision-making scenarios, it becomes imperative to ground their reasoning in causality rather than spurious correlations. However, strong performance on…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2026-02-24 Yuzhe Wang , Yaochen Zhu , Jundong Li

The clique tree algorithm is the standard method for doing inference in Bayesian networks. It works by manipulating clique potentials - distributions over the variables in a clique. While this approach works well for many networks, it is…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2013-01-30 Daphne Koller , Uri Lerner , Dragomir Anguelov

Causal inference in a nonlinear system of multivariate timeseries is instrumental in disentangling the intricate web of relationships among variables, enabling us to make more accurate predictions and gain deeper insights into real-world…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-01-17 Wasim Ahmad , Maha Shadaydeh , Joachim Denzler