Related papers: An ensemble Kalman approach to randomized maximum …

We propose a new regularisation strategy for the classical ensemble Kalman inversion (EKI) framework. The strategy consists of: (i) an adaptive choice for the regularisation parameter in the update formula in EKI, and (ii) criteria for the…

In this paper we study the computation of the nonparametric maximum likelihood estimator (NPMLE) in multivariate mixture models. Our first approach discretizes this infinite dimensional convex optimization problem by fixing the support…

We consider the problem of estimating rare event probabilities, focusing on systems whose evolution is governed by differential equations with uncertain input parameters. If the system dynamics is expensive to compute, standard sampling…

This work proposes a Bayesian inference method for the reduced-order modeling of time-dependent systems. Informed by the structure of the governing equations, the task of learning a reduced-order model from data is posed as a Bayesian…

This paper is on Bayesian inference for parametric statistical models that are defined by a stochastic simulator which specifies how data is generated. Exact sampling is then possible but evaluating the likelihood function is typically…

It is common practice to use Laplace approximations to compute marginal likelihoods in Bayesian versions of generalised linear models (GLM). Marginal likelihoods combined with model priors are then used in different search algorithms to…

In Bayesian inverse problems, one aims at characterizing the posterior distribution of a set of unknowns, given indirect measurements. For non-linear/non-Gaussian problems, analytic solutions are seldom available: Sequential Monte Carlo…

Ensemble forecast based on physics-informed models is one of the most widely used forecast algorithms for complex turbulent systems. A major difficulty in such a method is the model error that is ubiquitous in practice. Data-driven machine…

Bayesian optimization is a powerful tool for optimizing an expensive-to-evaluate black-box function. In particular, the effectiveness of expected improvement (EI) has been demonstrated in a wide range of applications. However, theoretical…

Classic Bayesian methods with complex models are frequently infeasible due to an intractable likelihood. Simulation-based inference methods, such as Approximate Bayesian Computing (ABC), calculate posteriors without accessing a likelihood…

In this study, we consider an empirical Bayes method for Boltzmann machines and propose an algorithm for it. The empirical Bayes method allows estimation of the values of the hyperparameters of the Boltzmann machine by maximizing a specific…

We describe $k$-MLE, a fast and efficient local search algorithm for learning finite statistical mixtures of exponential families such as Gaussian mixture models. Mixture models are traditionally learned using the expectation-maximization…

We consider the problem of conditioning a geological process-based computer simulation, which produces basin models by simulating transport and deposition of sediments, to data. Emphasising uncertainty quantification, we frame this as a…

Bayesian optimization through Gaussian process regression is an effective method of optimizing an unknown function for which every measurement is expensive. It approximates the objective function and then recommends a new measurement point…

The two primary approaches for high-dimensional regression problems are sparse methods (e.g., best subset selection, which uses the L0-norm in the penalty) and ensemble methods (e.g., random forests). Although sparse methods typically yield…

The Ensemble Kalman methodology in an inverse problems setting can be viewed as an iterative scheme, which is a weakly tamed discretization scheme for a certain stochastic differential equation (SDE). Assuming a suitable approximation…

In this paper, we propose two new algorithms for maximum-likelihood estimation (MLE) of high dimensional sparse covariance matrices. Unlike most of the state of-the-art methods, which either use regularization techniques or penalize the…

The likelihood-free sequential Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC) algorithms, are increasingly popular inference tools for complex biological models. Such algorithms proceed by constructing a succession of probability distributions over…

Models of stochastic processes are widely used in almost all fields of science. Theory validation, parameter estimation, and prediction all require model calibration and statistical inference using data. However, data are almost always…

This paper presents a computationally fast algorithm for estimating, both, the system and observation noise covariances of nonlinear dynamics, that can be used in an ensemble Kalman filtering framework. The new method is a modification of…