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Methods to quantify uncertainty in predictions from arbitrary models are in demand in high-stakes domains like medicine and finance. Conformal prediction has emerged as a popular method for producing a set of predictions with specified…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-03-19 Jessica Hullman , Yifan Wu , Dawei Xie , Ziyang Guo , Andrew Gelman

Existing recommendation methods often struggle to model users' multifaceted preferences due to the diversity and volatility of user behavior, as well as the inherent uncertainty and ambiguity of item attributes in practical scenarios.…

Information Retrieval · Computer Science 2025-06-19 Zihao Li , Qiang Chen , Lixin Zou , Aixin Sun , Chenliang Li

Calibration is a well-studied property of predictors which guarantees meaningful uncertainty estimates. Multicalibration is a related notion -- originating in algorithmic fairness -- which requires predictors to be simultaneously calibrated…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-11-06 Dutch Hansen , Siddartha Devic , Preetum Nakkiran , Vatsal Sharan

Calibration has been proposed as a way to enhance the reliability and adoption of machine learning classifiers. We study a particular aspect of this proposal: how does calibrating a classification model affect the decisions made by…

Human-Computer Interaction · Computer Science 2025-08-27 Meir Nizri , Amos Azaria , Chirag Gupta , Noam Hazon

Providing recommendations that are both relevant and diverse is a key consideration of modern recommender systems. Optimizing both of these measures presents a fundamental trade-off, as higher diversity typically comes at the cost of…

Information Retrieval · Computer Science 2024-08-08 Erica Coppolillo , Giuseppe Manco , Aristides Gionis

Confidence calibration -- the problem of predicting probability estimates representative of the true correctness likelihood -- is important for classification models in many applications. We discover that modern neural networks, unlike…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2017-08-04 Chuan Guo , Geoff Pleiss , Yu Sun , Kilian Q. Weinberger

In the current landscape of ever-increasing levels of digitalization, we are facing major challenges pertaining to scalability. Recommender systems have become irreplaceable both for helping users navigate the increasing amounts of data…

Information Retrieval · Computer Science 2024-04-03 Bjørnar Vassøy , Helge Langseth

Survey statisticians make use of the available auxiliary information to improve estimates. One important example is given by calibration estimation, that seeks for new weights that are close (in some sense) to the basic design weights and…

Methodology · Statistics 2014-05-23 M. Giovanna Ranalli , Antonio Arcos , Maria del Mar Rueda , Annalisa Teodoro

A machine learning model is calibrated if its predicted probability for an outcome matches the observed frequency for that outcome conditional on the model prediction. This property has become increasingly important as the impact of machine…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-02-25 Muthu Chidambaram , Rong Ge

Ensuring that classifiers are well-calibrated, i.e., their predictions align with observed frequencies, is a minimal and fundamental requirement for classifiers to be viewed as trustworthy. Existing methods for assessing multiclass…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-10-30 Mahmoud Hegazy , Michael I. Jordan , Aymeric Dieuleveut

People in the Internet era have to cope with the information overload, striving to find what they are interested in, and usually face this situation by following a limited number of sources or friends that best match their interests. A…

Physics and Society · Physics 2013-03-26 Duanbing Chen , An Zeng , Giulio Cimini , Yi-Cheng Zhang

Discrimination and calibration represent two important properties of survival analysis, with the former assessing the model's ability to accurately rank subjects and the latter evaluating the alignment of predicted outcomes with actual…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-06-04 Shi-ang Qi , Yakun Yu , Russell Greiner

Current practice for evaluating recommender systems typically focuses on point estimates of user-oriented effectiveness metrics or business metrics, sometimes combined with additional metrics for considerations such as diversity and…

Information Retrieval · Computer Science 2023-09-13 Michael D. Ekstrand , Ben Carterette , Fernando Diaz

Recommender systems are effective tools for mitigating information overload and have seen extensive applications across various domains. However, the single focus on utility goals proves to be inadequate in addressing real-world concerns,…

Information Retrieval · Computer Science 2024-03-05 Yuying Zhao , Yu Wang , Yunchao Liu , Xueqi Cheng , Charu Aggarwal , Tyler Derr

In safety-critical applications a probabilistic model is usually required to be calibrated, i.e., to capture the uncertainty of its predictions accurately. In multi-class classification, calibration of the most confident predictions only is…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-09-30 David Widmann , Fredrik Lindsten , Dave Zachariah

The ongoing rapid expansion of the Internet greatly increases the necessity of effective recommender systems for filtering the abundant information. Extensive research for recommender systems is conducted by a broad range of communities…

Physics and Society · Physics 2015-06-04 Linyuan Lü , Matus Medo , Chi Ho Yeung , Yi-Cheng Zhang , Zi-Ke Zhang , Tao Zhou

Recommender systems are software tools used to generate and provide suggestions for items and other entities to the users by exploiting various strategies. Hybrid recommender systems combine two or more recommendation strategies in…

Information Retrieval · Computer Science 2019-01-15 Erion Çano , Maurizio Morisio

Fairness is an emerging and challenging topic in recommender systems. In recent years, various ways of evaluating and therefore improving fairness have emerged. In this study, we examine existing evaluation measures of fairness in…

Information Retrieval · Computer Science 2024-05-21 Theresia Veronika Rampisela , Maria Maistro , Tuukka Ruotsalo , Christina Lioma

The evolution of the user's content still remains a problem for an accurate recommendation.This is why the current research aims to design Recommender Systems (RS) able to continually adapt information that matches the user's interests.…

Information Retrieval · Computer Science 2013-05-09 Djallel Bouneffouf

In an increasing number of applications designers have access to multiple computer models which typically have different levels of fidelity and cost. Traditionally, designers calibrate these models one at a time against some high-fidelity…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-06-02 Jonathan Tammer Eweis-Labolle , Tyler Johnson , Xiangyu Sun , Ramin Bostanabad