Related papers: Introducing a New Brexit-Related Uncertainty Index…

Economic Policy Uncertainty (EPU) is a critical indicator in economic studies, while it can be used to forecast a recession. Under higher levels of uncertainty, firms' owners cut their investment, which leads to a longer post-recession…

In 2016, United Kingdom (UK) citizens voted to leave the European Union (EU), which was officially implemented in 2020. During this period, UK residents experienced a great deal of uncertainty around the UK's continued relationship with the…

Quantification of economic uncertainty is a key concept for the prediction of macro economic variables such as gross domestic product (GDP), and it becomes particularly relevant on real-time or short-time predictions methodologies, such as…

This paper examines the evolution of business and consumer uncertainty amid the coronavirus pandemic in 32 European countries and the European Union (EU).Since uncertainty is not directly observable, we approximate it using the geometric…

This paper constructs internationally consistent measures of macroeconomic uncertainty. Our econometric framework extracts uncertainty from revisions in data obtained from standardized national accounts. Applying our model to post-WWII…

Both uncertainty estimation and interpretability are important factors for trustworthy machine learning systems. However, there is little work at the intersection of these two areas. We address this gap by proposing a novel method for…

Macroeconomic factors have a critical impact on banking credit risk, which cannot be directly controlled by banks, and therefore, there is a need for an early credit risk warning system based on the macroeconomy. By comparing different…

Brexit and its implications are an ongoing topic of interest since the Brexit referendum in 2016. In 2019 the House of commons held a number of "indicative" and "meaningful" votes as part of the Brexit approval process. The voting behaviour…

Economic Policy Uncertainty (EPU) represents the uncertainty realized by the investors during economic policy alterations. EPU is a critical indicator in economic studies to predict future investments, the unemployment rate, and recessions.…

On 23rd June 2016, 51.9% of British voters voted to leave the European Union, triggering a process and events that have led to the United Kingdom leaving the EU, an event that has become known as 'Brexit'. In this piece of research, we…

This paper investigates the time-varying impacts of international macroeconomic uncertainty shocks. We use a global vector autoregressive specification with drifting coefficients and factor stochastic volatility in the errors to model six…

Understanding sources of a model's uncertainty regarding its predictions is crucial for effective human-AI collaboration. Prior work proposes using numerical uncertainty or hedges ("I'm not sure, but ..."), which do not explain uncertainty…

This report examines a novel risk associated with current (and projected) AI tools. Making effective decisions about future actions requires us to reason under uncertainty (RUU), and doing so is essential to many critical real world…

This study investigates the relationship between the market volatility of the iShares Asia 50 ETF (AIA) and economic and market sentiment indicators from the United States, China, and globally during periods of economic uncertainty.…

We study the implications of model uncertainty in a climate-economics framework with three types of capital: "dirty" capital that produces carbon emissions when used for production, "clean" capital that generates no emissions but is…

Country instability is a global issue, with unpredictably high levels of instability thwarting socio-economic growth and possibly causing a slew of negative consequences. As a result, uncertainty prediction models for a country are becoming…

In recommendation systems, the relevance and novelty of the final results are selected through a cascade system of Matching -> Ranking -> Strategy. The matching model serves as the starting point of the pipeline and determines the upper…

Debates on an EU-leaving referendum arose in several member states after Brexit. We want to highlight how the exit of an additional country affects the power distribution in the Council of the European Union. We inspect the power indices of…

The Economic Policy Uncertainty index had gained considerable traction with both academics and policy practitioners. Here, we analyse news feed data to construct a simple, general measure of uncertainty in the United States using a highly…

In this paper we estimate a Bayesian vector autoregressive model with factor stochastic volatility in the error term to assess the effects of an uncertainty shock in the Euro area. This allows us to treat macroeconomic uncertainty as a…