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Deep learning algorithms have recently shown to be a successful tool in estimating parameters of statistical models for which simulation is easy, but likelihood computation is challenging. But the success of these approaches depends on…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-02-20 Amanda Lenzi , Haavard Rue

Scientific knowledge expands by observing the world, hypothesizing some theories about it, and testing them against collected data. When those theories take the form of statistical models, statistical analyses are involved in the process of…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-03-11 Arnaud Delaunoy

This manuscript studies a general approach to construct confidence sets for the solution of stochastic optimization, rendering empirical risk minimization as special cases. Statistical inference for stochastic optimization poses significant…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2026-05-22 Kenta Takatsu , Arun Kumar Kuchibhotla

Reliable application of machine learning-based decision systems in the wild is one of the major challenges currently investigated by the field. A large portion of established approaches aims to detect erroneous predictions by means of…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2023-04-06 Paul F. Jaeger , Carsten T. Lüth , Lukas Klein , Till J. Bungert

Black box models in machine learning have demonstrated excellent predictive performance in complex problems and high-dimensional settings. However, their lack of transparency and interpretability restrict the applicability of such models in…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-06-09 Numair Sani , Jaron Lee , Razieh Nabi , Ilya Shpitser

The increasing adoption of machine learning tools has led to calls for accountability via model interpretability. But what does it mean for a machine learning model to be interpretable by humans, and how can this be assessed? We focus on…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-08-06 Dylan Slack , Sorelle A. Friedler , Carlos Scheidegger , Chitradeep Dutta Roy

The black box nature of deep learning models complicate their usage in critical applications such as remote sensing. Conformal prediction is a method to ensure trust in such scenarios. Subject to data exchangeability, conformal prediction…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-05-07 Protim Bhattacharjee , Peter Jung

Safety-critical prediction systems, such as autonomous vehicles, weather forecasters, and medical monitors, commonly rely on probabilistic forecasters. These forecasters make predictions about possible future outcomes, and their quality and…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-04-30 Romeo Valentin

As artificial intelligence (AI) / machine learning (ML) gain widespread adoption, practitioners are increasingly seeking means to quantify and control the risk these systems incur. This challenge is especially salient when such systems have…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-06-06 Drew Prinster , Samuel Stanton , Anqi Liu , Suchi Saria

For machine learning models to be reliable and trustworthy, their decisions must be interpretable. As these models find increasing use in safety-critical applications, it is important that not just the model predictions but also their…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-12-19 Sandesh Kamath , Sankalp Mittal , Amit Deshpande , Vineeth N Balasubramanian

While improving prediction accuracy has been the focus of machine learning in recent years, this alone does not suffice for reliable decision-making. Deploying learning systems in consequential settings also requires calibrating and…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-08-06 Stephen Bates , Anastasios Angelopoulos , Lihua Lei , Jitendra Malik , Michael I. Jordan

With machine learning models being increasingly used to aid decision making even in high-stakes domains, there has been a growing interest in developing interpretable models. Although many supposedly interpretable models have been proposed,…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2021-08-17 Forough Poursabzi-Sangdeh , Daniel G. Goldstein , Jake M. Hofman , Jennifer Wortman Vaughan , Hanna Wallach

Machine learning is increasingly used to inform decision-making in sensitive situations where decisions have consequential effects on individuals' lives. In these settings, in addition to requiring models to be accurate and robust, socially…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-03-02 Amir-Hossein Karimi , Gilles Barthe , Bernhard Schölkopf , Isabel Valera

Simulation-Based Inference (SBI) is an approach to statistical inference where simulations from an assumed model are used to construct estimators and confidence sets. SBI is often used when the likelihood is intractable and to construct…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-08-05 Lorenzo Tomaselli , Valérie Ventura , Larry Wasserman

Conformal prediction constructs a set of labels instead of a single point prediction, while providing a probabilistic coverage guarantee. Beyond the coverage guarantee, adaptiveness to example difficulty is an important property. It means…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-11-18 Sooyong Jang , Insup Lee

Calibration strengthens the trustworthiness of black-box models by producing better accurate confidence estimates on given examples. However, little is known about if model explanations can help confidence calibration. Intuitively, humans…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2022-11-08 Dongfang Li , Baotian Hu , Qingcai Chen

Different users of machine learning methods require different explanations, depending on their goals. To make machine learning accountable to society, one important goal is to get actionable options for recourse, which allow an affected…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-12-21 Hidde Fokkema , Rianne de Heide , Tim van Erven

We introduce Harmonic Robustness, a powerful and intuitive method to test the robustness of any machine-learning model either during training or in black-box real-time inference monitoring without ground-truth labels. It is based on…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-04-30 Nicholas S. Kersting , Yi Li , Aman Mohanty , Oyindamola Obisesan , Raphael Okochu

Validation is often defined as the process of determining the degree to which a model is an accurate representation of the real world from the perspective of its intended uses. Validation is crucial as industries and governments depend…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2015-06-26 D. Sornette , A. B. Davis , K. Ide , K. R. Vixie , V. Pisarenko , J. R. Kamm

Local explanation frameworks aim to rationalize particular decisions made by a black-box prediction model. Existing techniques are often restricted to a specific type of predictor or based on input saliency, which may be undesirably…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-02-12 Brandon Carter , Jonas Mueller , Siddhartha Jain , David Gifford
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