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Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC) provides methods for Bayesian inference in simulation-based stochastic models which do not permit tractable likelihoods. We present a new ABC method which uses probabilistic neural emulator networks to…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2019-05-21 Jan-Matthis Lueckmann , Giacomo Bassetto , Theofanis Karaletsos , Jakob H. Macke

Two-phase sampling is commonly adopted for reducing cost and improving estimation efficiency. In many two-phase studies, the outcome and some cheap covariates are observed for a large sample in Phase I, and expensive covariates are obtained…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-10-14 Qingning Zhou , Kin Yau Wong

This paper is on Bayesian inference for parametric statistical models that are defined by a stochastic simulator which specifies how data is generated. Exact sampling is then possible but evaluating the likelihood function is typically…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-03-02 Borislav Ikonomov , Michael U. Gutmann

Monte Carlo methods are often necessary for the implementation of optimal Bayesian estimators. A fundamental technique that can be used to generate samples from virtually any target probability distribution is the so-called rejection…

Computation · Statistics 2011-11-22 Luca Martino , Joaquín Míguez

This paper considers multiple binary hypothesis tests with adaptive allocation of sensing resources from a shared budget over a small number of stages. A Bayesian formulation is provided for the multistage allocation problem of minimizing…

Methodology · Statistics 2014-11-05 Dennis Wei

Over the past few decades, researchers have developed several approaches such as the Reference Phantom Method (RPM) to estimate ultrasound attenuation coefficient (AC) and backscatter coefficient (BSC). AC and BSC can help to discriminate…

Medical Physics · Physics 2017-12-12 Kajoli Banerjee Krishnan , Nithin Nagaraj , Nitin Singhal , Shalini Thapar , Komal Yadav

This paper proposes new methodology for sequential state and parameter estimation within the ensemble Kalman filter. The method is fully Bayesian and propagates the joint posterior density of states and parameters over time. In order to…

Methodology · Statistics 2016-11-14 Jonathan R. Stroud , Matthias Katzfuss , Christopher K. Wikle

In this tutorial we schematically illustrate four algorithms: (1) ABC rejection for parameter estimation (2) ABC SMC for parameter estimation (3) ABC rejection for model selection on the joint space (4) ABC SMC for model selection on the…

Computation · Statistics 2010-01-19 Tina Toni , Michael P. H. Stumpf

Environmental processes often exhibit complex, non-linear patterns and discontinuities across space and time, posing significant challenges for traditional geostatistical modeling approaches. In this paper, we propose a hybrid…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-05-06 Mario Figueira , Michela Cameletti , Luca Patelli

Approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) is an approach for sampling from an approximate posterior distribution in the presence of a computationally intractable likelihood function. A common implementation is based on simulating model,…

Methodology · Statistics 2013-01-16 D. Prangle , M. G. B. Blum , G. Popovic , S. A. Sisson

Few problems in statistics are as perplexing as variable selection in the presence of very many redundant covariates. The variable selection problem is most familiar in parametric environments such as the linear model or additive variants…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-02-25 Yi Liu , Veronika Ročková , Yuexi Wang

Determining subgroups that respond especially well (or poorly) to specific interventions (medical or policy) requires new supervised learning methods tailored specifically for causal inference. Bayesian Causal Forest (BCF) is a recent…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-09-16 Nikolay Krantsevich , Jingyu He , P. Richard Hahn

We research relations between optimal transport theory (OTT) and approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) possibly connected to relevant metrics defined on probability measures. Those of ABC are computational methods based on Bayesian…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2021-05-06 Marco Tarsia , Antonietta Mira , Daniele Cassani

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) coordinates a labor-intensive process to measure the prevalence of autism spectrum disorder (ASD) among children in the United States. Random forests methods have shown promise in…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-07-01 Scott H Lee , Matthew J Maenner , Charles M Heilig

Approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) is a widely used inference method in Bayesian statistics to bypass the point-wise computation of the likelihood. In this paper we develop theoretical bounds for the distance between the statistics used…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2019-01-03 James Ridgway

Bayesian optimization is a sample-efficient method for solving expensive, black-box optimization problems. Stochastic programming concerns optimization under uncertainty where, typically, average performance is the quantity of interest. In…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-02-19 Jack M. Buckingham , Ivo Couckuyt , Juergen Branke

Background: We proposed approximate Bayesian computation with single distribution selection (ABC-SD) for estimating mean and standard deviation from other reported summary statistics. The ABC-SD generates pseudo data from a single…

Methodology · Statistics 2016-07-12 Deukwoo Kwon , Isildinha M. Reis

We propose a Conditional Density Filtering (C-DF) algorithm for efficient online Bayesian inference. C-DF adapts MCMC sampling to the online setting, sampling from approximations to conditional posterior distributions obtained by…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2015-09-23 Shaan Qamar , Rajarshi Guhaniyogi , David B. Dunson

The root-cause diagnostics of product quality defects in multistage manufacturing processes often requires a joint identification of crucial stages and process variables. To meet this requirement, this paper proposes a novel penalized…

Applications · Statistics 2020-06-11 Cheoljoon Jeong , Xiaolei Fang

The problem of adaptive sampling for estimating probability mass functions (pmf) uniformly well is considered. Performance of the sampling strategy is measured in terms of the worst-case mean squared error. A Bayesian variant of the…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-12-09 Dhruva Kartik , Neeraj Sood , Urbashi Mitra , Tara Javidi