Related papers: A Data-Driven Model Predictive Controller to manag…

We consider the SEIR compartmental epidemic model subject to state and input constraints (a cap on the proportion of infectious individuals and limits on the allowed social distancing and quarantining measures, respectively). We present a…

With the outbreak of COVID-19, how to mitigate and suppress its spread is a big issue to the government. Department of public health need powerful models to model and predict the trend and scale of such pandemic. And models that could…

The mathematical interpretation of interventions for the mitigation of epidemics and pandemics in the literature often involves finding the optimal time to initiate an intervention and/or the use of infections to manage impact. Whilst these…

Sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) algorithms represent a suite of robust computational methodologies utilized for state estimation and parameter inference within dynamical systems, particularly in real-time or online environments where data…

The SARS-CoV-2 outbreak changed the everyday life of almost all the people over the world.Currently, we are facing with the problem of containing the spread of the virus both using the more effective forced lockdown, which has the drawback…

The COVID-19 pandemic has been a great catastrophe that upended human lives and caused millions of deaths all over the world. The rapid spread of the virus, with its early-stage exponential growth and subsequent 'waves', caught many medical…

On 19th March, the World Health Organisation declared a pandemic. Through this global spread, many nations have witnessed exponential growth of confirmed cases brought under control by severe mass quarantine or lockdown measures. However,…

The acute phase of the Covid-19 pandemic has made apparent the need for decision support based upon accurate epidemic modeling. This process is substantially hampered by under-reporting of cases and related data incompleteness issues. In…

In this paper, we formulate a Nonlinear Model Predictive Control (NMPC) to plan appropriate social distancing measures (and relaxations) in order to mitigate the COVID-19 pandemic effects, considering the contagion development in Brazil.…

Mechanistic models fit to streaming surveillance data are critical to understanding the transmission dynamics of an outbreak as it unfolds in real-time. However, transmission model parameter estimation can be imprecise, and sometimes even…

Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) poses a great threat to public health and the economy worldwide. Currently, COVID-19 evolves in many countries to a second stage, characterized by the need for the liberation of the economy and relaxation…

In recent years, numerous advances have been made in understanding how epidemic dynamics is affected by changes in individual behaviours. We propose an SIS-based compartmental model to tackle the simultaneous and coupled evolution of an…

We study the impact of parameter estimation and state measurement errors on a control framework for optimally mitigating the spread of epidemics. We capture the epidemic spreading process using a susceptible-infected-removed (SIR) epidemic…

In this work, we extend our previously developed compartmental SEIQRD model for SARS-CoV-2 in Belgium. We introduce SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern, vaccines, and seasonality in our model, as their addition has proven necessary for modelling…

Using a discretised version of our recently-developed SIR-type mathematical model for the spread of COVID-19, we construct a design of governmental policies for the eradication of the disease in the province of DKI Jakarta, Indonesia,…

During the COVID pandemic, periods of exponential growth of the disease have been mitigated by containment measures that in different occasions have resulted in a power-law growth of the number of cases. The first observation of such…

The rapidly spreading Covid-19 that affected almost all countries, was first reported at the end of 2019. As a consequence of its highly infectious nature, countries all over the world have imposed extremely strict measures to control its…

During an infectious disease outbreak, biases in the data and complexities of the underlying dynamics pose significant challenges in mathematically modelling the outbreak and designing policy. Motivated by the ongoing response to COVID-19,…

Ever since the outbreak of the COVID-19 epidemic, various public health control strategies have been proposed and tested against the coronavirus SARS-CoV-2. We study three specific COVID-19 epidemic control models: the susceptible, exposed,…

Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) is a rapidly emerging respiratory disease caused by the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). Due to the rapid human-to-human transmission of SARS-CoV-2, many healthcare systems…