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An updated and extended meta-analysis confirms that the central estimate of the social cost of carbon is around $200/tC with a large, right-skewed uncertainty and trending up. The pure rate of time preference and the inverse of the…

Econometrics · Economics 2024-09-13 Richard S. J. Tol

A meta-analysis of published estimates shows that the social cost of carbon has increased as knowledge about climate change accumulates. Correcting for inflation and emission year and controlling for the discount rate, kernel density…

General Economics · Economics 2022-08-04 Richard S. J. Tol

The majority of estimates of the social cost of carbon use preference parameters calibrated to data for North America and Europe. We here use representative data for attitudes to time and risk across the world. The social cost of carbon is…

General Economics · Economics 2024-04-09 Jinchi Dong , Richard S. J. Tol , Fangzhi Wang

We estimate the national social cost of carbon using a recent meta-analysis of the total impact of climate change and a standard integrated assessment model. The average social cost of carbon closely follows per capita income, the national…

General Economics · Economics 2026-01-21 Matthew K. Agrawala , Richard S. J. Tol

The social cost of carbon is the damage avoided by slightly reducing carbon dioxide emissions. It is a measure of the desired intensity of climate policy. The social cost of carbon is highly uncertain because of the long and complex…

General Economics · Economics 2023-10-20 Richard S. J. Tol

There is great uncertainty about future climate conditions and the appropriate policies for managing interactions between the climate and the economy. We develop a multidimensional computational model to examine how uncertainties and risks…

Economics · Quantitative Finance 2015-04-30 Yongyang Cai , Kenneth L. Judd , Thomas S. Lontzek

Carbon taxes are increasingly popular among policymakers but remain politically contentious. A key challenge relates to their distributional impacts; the extent to which tax burdens differ across population groups. As a response, a growing…

General Economics · Economics 2026-01-13 Jules Linden , Cathal O'Donoghue , Denisa Sologon

There are many published estimates of the social cost of carbon. Some are clear outliers, the result of poorly constrained models. Percentile winsorizing is an option, but I here propose conceptual winsorizing: The social cost of carbon is…

Econometrics · Economics 2025-08-13 Richard S. J. Tol

To analyze climate change mitigation strategies, economists rely on simplified climate models - climate emulators. We propose a generic and transparent calibration and evaluation strategy for these climate emulators that is based on Coupled…

General Economics · Economics 2022-06-10 Doris Folini , Felix Kübler , Aleksandra Malova , Simon Scheidegger

The cost of the impacts of climate change have already proven to be larger than previously believed. Understanding the costs and benefits of adapting to the changing climate is necessary to make targeted and appropriate investment…

General Economics · Economics 2024-11-27 Anna Josephson , Rodrigo Guerra Su , Greg Collins , Katharine Jacobs

A new version of the database for the meta-analysis of estimates of the social cost of carbon is presented. New records were added, and new fields on gender and stochasticity.

General Economics · Economics 2026-01-21 Richard S. J. Tol

The social cost of carbon (SCC) serves as a concise gauge of climate change's economic impact, often reported at the global and country level. SCC values are disproportionately high for less-developed, populous countries. Assessing the…

General Economics · Economics 2024-01-03 Francisco Estrada , Veronica Lupi , Wouter Botzen , Richard S. J. Tol

Carbon emissions significantly contribute to climate change, and carbon credits have emerged as a key tool for mitigating environmental damage and helping organizations manage their carbon footprint. Despite their growing importance across…

Computers and Society · Computer Science 2026-01-21 Qingwen Zeng , Hanlin Xu , Nanjun Xu , Zhenghao Zhao , Joakim Westerholm , Flora Salim , Junbin Gao , Huaming Chen

Machine learning (ML) requires using energy to carry out computations during the model training process. The generation of this energy comes with an environmental cost in terms of greenhouse gas emissions, depending on quantity used and the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-02-17 Alexandra Sasha Luccioni , Alex Hernandez-Garcia

Earlier meta-analyses of the economic impact of climate change are updated with more data, with three new results: (1) The central estimate of the economic impact of global warming is always negative. (2) The confidence interval about the…

General Economics · Economics 2022-08-30 Richard S. J. Tol

Despite much scientific evidence, a large fraction of the American public doubts that greenhouse gases are causing global warming. We present a simulation model as a computational test-bed for climate prediction markets. Traders adapt their…

Multiagent Systems · Computer Science 2016-07-13 John J. Nay , Martin Van der Linden , Jonathan M. Gilligan

Preference heterogeneity massively increases the social cost of carbon. We call this the Weitzman premium. Uncertainty about an exponential discount rate implies a hyperbolic discount rate, which in the near term is equal to the average…

General Economics · Economics 2025-02-04 Jinchi Dong , Richard S. J. Tol , Fangzhi Wang

By its nature, the so-called social cost of carbon (SCC(t)) will likely not cover the cost induced by climate change (damage cost and abatement cost) if it is used as a CO$_2$-price. It is a marginal price only. We define an implied…

Mathematical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2024-01-30 Christian P. Fries

This paper outlines a critical gap in the assessment methodology used to estimate the macroeconomic costs and benefits of climate policy. It shows that the vast majority of models used for assessing climate policy use assumptions about the…

Economics · Quantitative Finance 2017-03-09 H. Pollitt , J. -F. Mercure

Social cost of carbon (SCC) is estimated by integrated assessment models (IAM) and is widely used by government agencies to value climate policy impacts. While there is an ongoing debate about obtained numerical estimates and related…

General Economics · Economics 2021-11-08 Nikolay Khabarov , Alexey Smirnov , Michael Obersteiner
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