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Causal inference on time series data is a challenging problem, especially in the presence of unobserved confounders. This work focuses on estimating the causal effect between two time series that are confounded by a third, unobserved time…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-11-19 Felix Schur , Jonas Peters

Large language models (LLMs) have excelled in various natural language processing tasks, but challenges in interpretability and trustworthiness persist, limiting their use in high-stakes fields. Causal discovery offers a promising approach…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2024-06-10 Wei Zhou , Hong Huang , Guowen Zhang , Ruize Shi , Kehan Yin , Yuanyuan Lin , Bang Liu

Causal Bayesian networks (CBN) are popular graphical probabilistic models that encode causal relations among variables. Learning their graphical structure from observational data has received a lot of attention in the literature. When there…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-08-22 Christophe Gonzales , Amir-Hosein Valizadeh

We introduce DeCaFlow, a deconfounding causal generative model. Training once per dataset using just observational data and the underlying causal graph, DeCaFlow enables accurate causal inference on continuous variables under the presence…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-10-27 Alejandro Almodóvar , Adrián Javaloy , Juan Parras , Santiago Zazo , Isabel Valera

Causal discovery algorithms aim at untangling complex causal relationships from data. Here, we study causal discovery and inference methods based on staged tree models, which can represent complex and asymmetric causal relationships between…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-03-02 Manuele Leonelli , Gherardo Varando

Constraint-based causal discovery is widely used for learning causal structures, but heavy reliance on conditional independence (CI) testing makes it computationally expensive in high-dimensional settings. To mitigate this limitation, many…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-05-12 Zheng Li , Feng Xie , Shenglan Nie , Xichen Guo , Ruxin Wang , Hao Zhang

In this paper, we analyze the applicability of the Causal Identification algorithm to causal time series graphs with latent confounders. Since these graphs extend over infinitely many time steps, deciding whether causal effects across…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-04-30 Erik Jahn , Karthik Karnik , Leonard J. Schulman

Causal disentanglement aims to learn about latent causal factors behind data, holding the promise to augment existing representation learning methods in terms of interpretability and extrapolation. Recent advances establish identifiability…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-12-25 Ryan Welch , Jiaqi Zhang , Caroline Uhler

Graph-based causal discovery methods aim to capture conditional independencies consistent with the observed data and differentiate causal relationships from indirect or induced ones. Successful construction of graphical models of data…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2021-01-08 Boris Hayete , Fred Gruber , Anna Decker , Raymond Yan

In practical statistical causal discovery (SCD), embedding domain expert knowledge as constraints into the algorithm is important for reasonable causal models reflecting the broad knowledge of domain experts, despite the challenges in the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-05-13 Masayuki Takayama , Tadahisa Okuda , Thong Pham , Tatsuyoshi Ikenoue , Shingo Fukuma , Shohei Shimizu , Akiyoshi Sannai

Many questions in science center around the fundamental problem of understanding causal relationships. However, most constraint-based causal discovery algorithms, including the well-celebrated PC algorithm, often incur an exponential number…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-06-05 Kirankumar Shiragur , Jiaqi Zhang , Caroline Uhler

Large Language Models (LLMs) and causal learning each hold strong potential for clinical decision making (CDM). However, their synergy remains poorly understood, largely due to the lack of systematic benchmarks evaluating their integration…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-11-14 Linna Wang , Zhixuan You , Qihui Zhang , Jiunan Wen , Ji Shi , Yimin Chen , Yusen Wang , Fanqi Ding , Ziliang Feng , Li Lu

Causal discovery aims to recover ``what causes what'', but classical constraint-based methods (e.g., PC, FCI) suffer from error propagation, and recent LLM-based causal oracles often behave as opaque, confidence-free black boxes. This paper…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-01-16 Ziyi Ding , Chenfei Ye-Hao , Zheyuan Wang , Xiao-Ping Zhang

Discovering the causal effect of a decision is critical to nearly all forms of decision-making. In particular, it is a key quantity in drug development, in crafting government policy, and when implementing a real-world machine learning…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-03-04 Limor Gultchin , Matt J. Kusner , Varun Kanade , Ricardo Silva

We study the problem of deriving policies, or rules, that when enacted on a complex system, cause a desired outcome. Absent the ability to perform controlled experiments, such rules have to be inferred from past observations of the system's…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-09-09 Kailash Budhathoki , Mario Boley , Jilles Vreeken

In social sciences and economics, causal inference traditionally focuses on assessing the impact of predefined treatments (or interventions) on predefined outcomes, such as the effect of education programs on earnings. Causal discovery, in…

Econometrics · Economics 2024-07-12 Martin Huber

Causal discovery aims to identify causal relationships between variables and is a fundamental problem across the sciences. Traditional statistical causal discovery (SCD) methods rely solely on observational data and ignore the contextual…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2026-05-27 Hao Duong Le , Xin Xia , Haijie Xu , Chen Zhang

As systems are getting more autonomous with the development of artificial intelligence, it is important to discover the causal knowledge from observational sensory inputs. By encoding a series of cause-effect relations between events,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-01-16 Yuhao Wang , Vlado Menkovski , Hao Wang , Xin Du , Mykola Pechenizkiy

True intelligence hinges on the ability to uncover and leverage hidden causal relations. Despite significant progress in AI and computer vision (CV), there remains a lack of benchmarks for assessing models' abilities to infer latent…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2025-10-31 Disheng Liu , Yiran Qiao , Wuche Liu , Yiren Lu , Yunlai Zhou , Tuo Liang , Yu Yin , Jing Ma

Confounding is a significant obstacle to unbiased estimation of causal effects from observational data. For settings with high-dimensional covariates -- such as text data, genomics, or the behavioral social sciences -- researchers have…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2024-02-01 Katherine A. Keith , Sergey Feldman , David Jurgens , Jonathan Bragg , Rohit Bhattacharya