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Multi-state models are commonly used for intermittent observations of a state over time, but these are generally based on the Markov assumption, that transition rates are independent of the time spent in current and previous states. In a…

Multi-state models are frequently applied for representing processes evolving through a discrete set of state. Important classes of multi-state models arise when transitions between states may depend on the time since entry into the current…

Over the past few decades, the Hawkes process has become a popular framework for modeling temporal events thanks to its flexibility to capture different dependency structures. The objective of this work is to model call sequences emitted by…

A discrete time stochastic model for a multiagent system given in terms of a large collection of interacting Markov chains is studied. The evolution of the interacting particles is described through a time inhomogeneous transition…

Exposing meaningful and interpretable neural interactions is critical to understanding neural circuits. Inferred neural interactions from neural signals primarily reflect functional interactions. In a long experiment, subject animals may…

We discuss the semiparametric modeling of mark-recapture-recovery data where the temporal and/or individual variation of model parameters is explained via covariates. Typically, in such analyses a fixed (or mixed) effects parametric model…

We propose a novel nonparametric approach for linking covariates to Continuous Time Markov Chains (CTMCs) using the mathematical framework of Reproducing Kernel Hilbert Spaces (RKHS). CTMCs provide a robust framework for modeling…

Understanding the merging behavior patterns at freeway on-ramps is important for assistanting the decisions of autonomous driving. This study develops a primitive-based framework to identify the driving patterns during merging processes and…

We introduce the Reduced-Rank Hidden Markov Model (RR-HMM), a generalization of HMMs that can model smooth state evolution as in Linear Dynamical Systems (LDSs) as well as non-log-concave predictive distributions as in…

Ecologists often use a hidden Markov model to decode a latent process, such as a sequence of an animal's behaviours, from an observed biologging time series. Modern technological devices such as video recorders and drones now allow…

We introduce an extension of finite mixture models by incorporating skew-normal distributions within a Hidden Markov Model framework. By assuming a constant transition probability matrix and allowing emission distributions to vary according…

Hidden Markov Models (HMMs) are powerful tools for modeling sequential data, where the underlying states evolve in a stochastic manner and are only indirectly observable. Traditional HMM approaches are well-established for linear sequences,…

Stabilized regression aims to identify a set of predictors whose conditional relationship with a response variable remains invariant across different environments. Existing graphical characterizations of the stable blanket are mainly…

Hidden Markov models (HMMs) are a versatile statistical framework commonly used in ecology to characterize behavioural patterns from animal movement data. In HMMs, the observed data depend on a finite number of underlying hidden states,…

State-space models (SSMs) are a popular tool for modeling animal abundances. Inference difficulties for simple linear SSMs are well known, particularly in relation to simultaneous estimation of process and observation variances. Several…

Data-based inference of directed interactions in complex dynamical systems is a problem common to many disciplines of science. In this work, we study networks of spatially separate dynamical entities, which could represent physical systems…

Hidden Markov models (HMMs) are probabilistic methods in which observations are seen as realizations of a latent Markov process with discrete states that switch over time. Moving beyond standard statistical tests, HMMs offer a statistical…

We present a new method for inferring hidden Markov models from noisy time sequences without the necessity of assuming a model architecture, thus allowing for the detection of degenerate states. This is based on the statistical prediction…

Hidden Markov Models with an underlying Mixture of Gaussian structure have proven effective in learning Human-Robot Interactions from demonstrations for various interactive tasks via Gaussian Mixture Regression. However, a mismatch occurs…

We present a study using new computational methods, based on a novel combination of machine learning for inferring admixture hidden Markov models and probabilistic model checking, to uncover interaction styles in a mobile app. These styles…