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Hidden Markov models (HMMs) are widely applied in studies where a discrete-valued process of interest is observed indirectly. They have for example been used to model behaviour from human and animal tracking data, disease status from…

Hidden Markov models (HMMs) are popular tools for analysing animal behaviour based on movement, acceleration and other sensor data. In particular, these models allow to infer how the animal's decision-making process interacts with internal…

Over the last decade, hidden Markov models (HMMs) have become increasingly popular in statistical ecology, where they constitute natural tools for studying animal behavior based on complex sensor data. Corresponding analyses sometimes…

Markov-switching models are powerful tools that allow capturing complex patterns from time series data driven by latent states. Recent work has highlighted the benefits of estimating components of these models nonparametrically, enhancing…

We propose a new flexible tensor model for multiple-equation regression that accounts for latent regime changes. The model allows for dynamic coefficients and multi-dimensional covariates that vary across equations. We assume the…

State-switching models such as hidden Markov models or Markov-switching regression models are routinely applied to analyse sequences of observations that are driven by underlying non-observable states. Coupled state-switching models extend…

We develop a semi-parametric state-space model for time-series data with latent regime transitions. Classical Markov-switching models use fixed parametric transition functions, such as logistic or probit links, which restrict flexibility…

The well-established methodology for the estimation of hidden semi-Markov models (HSMMs) as hidden Markov models (HMMs) with extended state spaces is further developed to incorporate covariate influences across all aspects of the state…

A Markov state model of the dynamics of a protein-like chain immersed in an implicit hard sphere solvent is derived from first principles for a system of monomers that interact via discontinuous potentials designed to account for local…

In the current era of vast data and transparent machine learning, it is essential for techniques to operate at a large scale while providing a clear mathematical comprehension of the internal workings of the method. Although there already…

Hidden Markov models (HMMs) have been used increasingly to understand how movement patterns of animals arise from behavioural states. An animal is assumed to transition between behavioural states through time, as described by transition…

Data collected from wearable devices and smartphones can shed light on an individual's pattern of behavioral and circadian routine. Phone use can be modeled as alternating event process, between the state of active use and the state of…

Hidden Markov models are widely used for modeling sequential data but typically have limited applicability in observational causal inference due to their strong conditional independence assumptions. I introduce feedback-augmented…

Motivated by applications in movement ecology, in this paper I propose a new class of integrated continuous-time hidden Markov models in which each observation depends on the underlying state of the process over the whole interval since the…

We present a flexible Bayesian semiparametric mixed model for longitudinal data analysis in the presence of potentially high-dimensional categorical covariates. Building on a novel hidden Markov tensor decomposition technique, our proposed…

We consider Markov-switching regression models, i.e. models for time series regression analyses where the functional relationship between covariates and response is subject to regime switching controlled by an unobservable Markov chain.…

Social behavior across animal species ranges from simple pairwise interactions to thousands of individuals coordinating goal-directed movements. Regardless of the scale, these interactions are governed by the interplay between multimodal…

Statistical models that involve latent Markovian state processes have become immensely popular tools for analysing time series and other sequential data. However, the plethora of model formulations, the inconsistent use of terminology, and…

We propose an extension of Markov-switching generalized additive models for location, scale, and shape (MS-GAMLSS) that allows covariates to influence not only the parameters of the state-dependent distributions but also the state…

Hidden Markov models (HMMs) are flexible time series models in which the distributions of the observations depend on unobserved serially correlated states. The state-dependent distributions in HMMs are usually taken from some class of…