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We study heterogeneity in the effect of a mindset intervention on student-level performance through an observational dataset from the National Study of Learning Mindsets (NSLM). Our analysis uses machine learning (ML) to address the…

Applications · Statistics 2018-11-16 Fredrik D. Johansson

Non-significant randomized control trials can hide subgroups of good responders to experimental drugs, thus hindering subsequent development. Identifying such heterogeneous treatment effects is key for precision medicine and many post-hoc…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-01-24 Valentine Perrin , Nathan Noiry , Nicolas Loiseau , Alex Nowak

Estimation of conditional average treatment effects (CATEs) plays an essential role in modern medicine by informing treatment decision-making at a patient level. Several metalearners have been proposed recently to estimate CATEs in an…

Applications · Statistics 2022-09-07 Yizhe Xu , Nikolaos Ignatiadis , Erik Sverdrup , Scott Fleming , Stefan Wager , Nigam Shah

Flexible estimation of heterogeneous treatment effects lies at the heart of many statistical challenges, such as personalized medicine and optimal resource allocation. In this paper, we develop a general class of two-step algorithms for…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-08-07 Xinkun Nie , Stefan Wager

Understanding treatment effect heterogeneity has become an increasingly popular task in various fields, as it helps design personalized advertisements in e-commerce or targeted treatment in biomedical studies. However, most of the existing…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-07-12 Waverly Wei , Xinwei Ma , Jingshen Wang

Causal mediation analysis aims at disentangling a treatment effect into an indirect mechanism operating through an intermediate outcome or mediator, as well as the direct effect of the treatment on the outcome of interest. However, the…

Econometrics · Economics 2020-05-05 Martin Huber , Lukáš Lafférs

Estimating individualised treatment effect (ITE) -- that is the causal effect of a set of variables (also called exposures, treatments, actions, policies, or interventions), referred to as \textit{composite treatments}, on a set of outcome…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-12-19 Vinod Kumar Chauhan , Lei Clifton , Gaurav Nigam , David A. Clifton

Estimating heterogeneous treatment effect (HTE) for survival outcomes has gained increasing attention, as it captures the variation in treatment efficacy across patients or subgroups in delaying disease progression. However, most existing…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-11-27 Na Bo , Ying Ding

We provide an inferential framework to assess variable importance for heterogeneous treatment effects. This assessment is especially useful in high-risk domains such as medicine, where decision makers hesitate to rely on black-box treatment…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-05-11 Pawel Morzywolek , Peter B. Gilbert , Alex Luedtke

In network settings, interference between units makes causal inference more challenging as outcomes may depend on the treatments received by others in the network. Typical estimands in network settings focus on treatment effects aggregated…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-07-25 Heejong Bong , Colin B. Fogarty , Elizaveta Levina , Ji Zhu

Treatment effect heterogeneity is of a great concern when evaluating policy impact: "is the treatment Pareto-improving?", "what is the proportion of people who are better off under the treatment?", etc. However, even in the simple case of a…

Econometrics · Economics 2025-09-18 Myungkou Shin

We address the problem of estimating heterogeneous treatment effects in panel data, adopting the popular Difference-in-Differences (DiD) framework under the conditional parallel trends assumption. We propose a novel doubly robust…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-04-29 Hui Lan , Haoge Chang , Eleanor Dillon , Vasilis Syrgkanis

A growing number of applications involve settings where, in order to infer heterogeneous effects, a researcher compares various units. Examples of research designs include children moving between different neighborhoods, workers moving…

Econometrics · Economics 2024-04-03 Stephane Bonhomme , Angela Denis

This paper considers the practically important case of nonparametrically estimating heterogeneous average treatment effects that vary with a limited number of discrete and continuous covariates in a selection-on-observables framework where…

Econometrics · Economics 2019-08-26 Michael Zimmert , Michael Lechner

This paper considers the identification of dynamic treatment effects with panel data, in complex designs where the treatment may not be binary and may not be absorbing. We first show that under no-anticipation and parallel-trends…

Econometrics · Economics 2025-12-23 Clément de Chaisemartin , Xavier D'Haultfœuille

We propose a double/debiased machine learning framework to estimate average derivative effects in nonparametric panel models with two-way fixed effects. It extends instrumental variable methods to panel settings, handles continuous…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-05-19 Peikai Wu , Kuan Sun , Zhiguo Xiao

We present machine learning estimators for causal and predictive parameters under covariate shift, where covariate distributions differ between training and target populations. One such parameter is the average effect of a policy that…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-09-23 Victor Chernozhukov , Michael Newey , Whitney K Newey , Rahul Singh , Vasilis Syrgkanis

Recent work has made important contributions in the development of causally-interpretable meta-analysis. These methods transport treatment effects estimated in a collection of randomized trials to a target population of interest. Ideally,…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-02-08 Justin M. Clark , Kollin W. Rott , James S. Hodges , Jared D. Huling

Applied work often studies the effect of a binary variable ("treatment") using linear models with additive effects. I study the interpretation of the OLS estimands in such models when treatment effects are heterogeneous. I show that the…

Econometrics · Economics 2020-05-21 Tymon Słoczyński

The Predictive Approaches to Treatment Effect Heterogeneity statement focused on baseline risk as a robust predictor of treatment effect and provided guidance on risk-based assessment of treatment effect heterogeneity in the RCT setting.…

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