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Numerous empirical studies employ regression discontinuity designs with multiple cutoffs and heterogeneous treatments. A common practice is to normalize all the cutoffs to zero and estimate one effect. This procedure identifies the average…

Econometrics · Economics 2021-01-06 Marinho Bertanha

This paper provides estimation and inference methods for a conditional average treatment effects (CATE) characterized by a high-dimensional parameter in both homogeneous cross-sectional and unit-heterogeneous dynamic panel data settings. In…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-12-13 Vira Semenova , Matt Goldman , Victor Chernozhukov , Matt Taddy

Developing tools for estimating heterogeneous treatment effects (HTE) and individualized treatment effects has been an area of active research in recent years. While these tools have proven to be useful in many contexts, a concern when…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-03-07 Mahsa Ashouri , Nicholas C. Henderson

This paper develops a performant Bayesian approach to conditional average treatment effect (CATE) estimation in regression discontinuity designs (RDD), an increasingly prevalent form of quasi-experiment that facilitates causal inference.…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-05-18 Rafael Alcantara , P. Richard Hahn , Hedibert F. Lopes

The Regression Discontinuity (RD) design is a widely used non-experimental method for causal inference and program evaluation. While its canonical formulation only requires a score and an outcome variable, it is common in empirical work to…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-08-25 Matias D. Cattaneo , Luke Keele , Rocio Titiunik

The conditional average treatment effect (CATE) is the best measure of individual causal effects given baseline covariates. However, the CATE only captures the (conditional) average, and can overlook risks and tail events, which are…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-06-05 Nathan Kallus , Miruna Oprescu

In the conventional regression-discontinuity (RD) design, the probability that units receive a treatment changes discontinuously as a function of one covariate exceeding a threshold or cutoff point. This paper studies an extended RD design…

Econometrics · Economics 2025-10-13 Eugenio Felipe Merlano

We present a practical guide for the analysis of regression discontinuity (RD) designs in biomedical contexts. We begin by introducing key concepts, assumptions, and estimands within both the continuity-based framework and the local…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-05-17 Matias D. Cattaneo , Luke Keele , Rocio Titiunik

To effectively optimize and personalize treatments, it is necessary to investigate the heterogeneity of treatment effects. With the wide range of users being treated over many online controlled experiments, the typical approach of manually…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-11-07 John Cai , Weinan Wang

Regression discontinuity design (RDD) is widely adopted for causal inference under intervention determined by a continuous variable. While one is interested in treatment effect heterogeneity by subgroups in many applications, RDD typically…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-11-11 Shonosuke Sugasawa , Takuya Ishihara , Daisuke Kurisu

Robust estimation of heterogeneous treatment effects is a fundamental challenge for optimal decision-making in domains ranging from personalized medicine to educational policy. In recent years, predictive machine learning has emerged as a…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-06-23 Maximilian Schuessler , Erik Sverdrup , Robert Tibshirani

Estimation of heterogeneous treatment effects is an active area of research. Most of the existing methods, however, focus on estimating the conditional average treatment effects of a single, binary treatment given a set of pre-treatment…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-05-30 Max Goplerud , Kosuke Imai , Nicole E. Pashley

Explanations of the internal validity of regression discontinuity designs (RDD) generally appeal to the idea that RDDs are ``as good as" random near the treatment cut point. Cattaneo, Frandsen, and Titiunik (2015) are the first to take this…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-09-26 Sophie Litschwartz

Regression discontinuity (RD) is a widely used quasi-experimental design for causal inference. In the standard RD, the assignment to treatment is determined by a continuous pretreatment variable (i.e., running variable) falling above or…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-06-23 Fan Li , Andrea Mercatanti , Taneli Makinen , Andrea Silvestrini

Estimation of heterogeneous treatment effects is an essential component of precision medicine. Model and algorithm-based methods have been developed within the causal inference framework to achieve valid estimation and inference. Existing…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-05-10 Ruohong Li , Honglang Wang , Wanzhu Tu

Meta-regression models are commonly used to synthesize and compare effect sizes. Unfortunately, traditional meta-regression methods are ill-equipped to handle the complex and often unknown correlations among non-independent effect sizes.…

Methodology · Statistics 2015-03-10 Zachary Fisher , Elizabeth Tipton

The Predictive Approaches to Treatment Effect Heterogeneity statement focused on baseline risk as a robust predictor of treatment effect and provided guidance on risk-based assessment of treatment effect heterogeneity in the RCT setting.…

Estimation of heterogeneous treatment effects (HTE) is of prime importance in many disciplines, ranging from personalized medicine to economics among many others. Random forests have been shown to be a flexible and powerful approach to HTE…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-10-07 Susanne Dandl , Torsten Hothorn , Heidi Seibold , Erik Sverdrup , Stefan Wager , Achim Zeileis

A crucial task for a randomized controlled trial (RCT) is to specify a statistical method that can yield an efficient estimator and powerful test for the treatment effect. A novel and effective strategy to obtain efficient and powerful…

This paper introduces BART-RDD, a sum-of-trees regression model built around a novel regression tree prior, which incorporates the special covariate structure of regression discontinuity designs. Specifically, the tree splitting process is…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-07-22 Rafael Alcantara , Meijia Wang , P. Richard Hahn , Hedibert Lopes