Related papers: A Compartmental Model for Epidemiology with Human …
We study the relation between different social behaviors and the onset of epidemics in a model for the dynamics of sexual transmitted diseases. The model considers the society as a system of individual sexuated agents that can be organized…
In this work we propose a novel space-dependent multiscale model for the spread of infectious diseases in a two-dimensional spatial context on realistic geographical scenarios. The model couples a system of kinetic transport equations…
Epidemic models study the spread of an undesired agent through a population, be it infectious diseases through a country, misinformation in online social media, or pests infesting a region. In combating these epidemics, we rely neither on…
Epidemic spreading can be suppressed by the introduction of containment measures such as social distancing and lock downs. Yet, when such measures are relaxed, new epidemic waves and infection cycles may occur. Here we explore this issue in…
We study the problem of a policymaker who aims at taming the spread of an epidemic while minimizing its associated social costs. The main feature of our model lies in the fact that the disease's transmission rate is a diffusive stochastic…
In the Staged Progression (SP) epidemic models, infected individuals are classified into a suitable number of states. The goal of these models is to describe as closely as possible the effect of differences in infectiousness exhibited by…
At the onset of the Covid-19 pandemic, a number of non-pharmaceutical interventions have been implemented in order to reduce transmission, thus leading to multiple phases of transmission. The disease reproduction number $R_t$, a way of…
We study the impact of contact heterogeneity on epidemic dynamics. A system characterized by multiple susceptible populations is considered. The description of the spread of an infectious disease is obtained through the study of a system of…
Epidemic models are always simplifications of real world epidemics. Which real world features to include, and which simplifications to make, depend both on the disease of interest and on the purpose of the modelling. In the present paper we…
We study a stochastic linear discrete metapolulation model to understand the effect of risk spreading by dispersion. We calculate analytically the stable distribution of populations that live in different habitats. The result shows that the…
World models have emerged as a unifying paradigm for learning latent dynamics, simulating counterfactual futures, and supporting planning under uncertainty. In this paper, we argue that computational epidemiology is a natural and…
We introduce a kinetic model that couples the movement of a population of individuals with the dynamics of a pathogen in the same population. We consider that transmission occurs when a susceptible and an infectious individual are…
Health-policy planning requires evidence on the burden that epidemics place on healthcare systems. Multiple, often dependent, datasets provide a noisy and fragmented signal from the unobserved epidemic process including transmission and…
Ideas, behaviors, and opinions spread through social networks. If the probability of spreading to a new individual is a non-linear function of the fraction of the individuals' affected neighbors, such a spreading process becomes a "complex…
A broad class of systems, including ecological, epidemiological, and sociological ones, are characterized by populations of individuals assigned to specific categories, e.g., a chemical species, an opinion or an epidemic state, that are…
We extend our BDI (birth-death-immigration) process based stochastic model of an infectious disease to time-nonhomogeneous cases. First, we discuss the deterministic model, and derive the expected value of the infection process. Then as an…
The spreading of epidemics is very much determined by the structure of the contact network, which may be impacted by the mobility dynamics of the individuals themselves. In confined scenarios where a small, closed population spends most of…
Non-pharmaceutical measures such as social distancing, can play an important role to control an epidemic in the absence of vaccinations. In this paper, we study the impact of social distancing on epidemics for which it is executable. We use…
The aim of the paper is to describe a model of the development of the Covid-19 contamination of the population of a country or a region. For this purpose a special branching process with two types of individuals is considered. This model is…
A central feature of an emerging infectious disease in a pandemic scenario is the spread through geographical scales and the impacts on different locations according to the adopted mitigation protocols. We investigated a stochastic epidemic…