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When treatment policy estimands are of interest, clinical trials often attempt to collect patient data after intercurrent events (ICEs), although such data are often limited. Retrieved dropout imputation methods, which use pre-ICE and…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-03-31 Brendah Nansereko , Marcel Wolbers , James R. Carpenter , Jonathan W. Bartlett

Clinical trials with longitudinal outcomes typically include missing data due to missed assessments or structural missingness of outcomes after intercurrent events handled with a hypothetical strategy. Approaches based on Bayesian random…

The ICH E9 addendum introduces the term intercurrent event to refer to events that happen after randomisation and that can either preclude observation of the outcome of interest or affect its interpretation. It proposes five strategies for…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-07-12 Camila Olarte Parra , Rhian M. Daniel , Jonathan W. Bartlett

We consider estimating the "de facto" or effectiveness estimand in a randomised placebo-controlled or standard-of-care-controlled drug trial with quantitative outcome, where participants who discontinue an investigational treatment are not…

Methodology · Statistics 2017-05-15 Ian R. White , Royes Joseph , Nicky Best

Inferring causal effects of treatments is a central goal in many disciplines. The potential outcomes framework is a main statistical approach to causal inference, in which a causal effect is defined as a comparison of the potential outcomes…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-01-04 Peng Ding , Fan Li

We describe the Bedside Patient Rescue (BPR) project, the goal of which is risk prediction of adverse events for non-ICU patients using ~200 variables (vitals, lab results, assessments, ...). There are several missing predictor values for…

In recent years, the field of causal inference from observational data has emerged rapidly. The literature has focused on (conditional) average causal effect estimation. When (remaining) variability of individual causal effects (ICEs) is…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-04-10 Richard Post , Edwin van den Heuvel

How to deal with missing data in observational studies is a common concern for causal inference. When the covariates are missing at random (MAR), multiple approaches have been provided to help solve the issue. However, if the exposure is…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-06-14 Yuliang Shi , Yeying Zhu , Joel A. Dubin

Causal inference methods based on electronic health record (EHR) databases must simultaneously handle confounding and missing data. Vast scholarship exists aimed at addressing these two issues separately, but surprisingly few papers attempt…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-07-28 Luke Benz , Alexander Levis , Sebastien Haneuse

Return-to-baseline is an important method to impute missing values or unobserved potential outcomes when certain hypothetical strategies are used to handle intercurrent events in clinical trials. Current return-to-baseline approaches seen…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-11-19 Yongming Qu , Biyue Dai

Estimands using the treatment policy strategy for addressing intercurrent events are common in Phase III clinical trials. One estimation approach for this strategy is retrieved dropout whereby observed data following an intercurrent event…

The recently published ICH E9 addendum on estimands in clinical trials provides a framework for precisely defining the treatment effect that is to be estimated, but says little about estimation methods. Here we report analyses of a clinical…

Applications · Statistics 2023-09-25 Camila Olarte Parra , Rhian M. Daniel , David Wright , Jonathan W. Bartlett

Intercurrent events (ICEs) and missing values are inevitable in clinical trials of any size and duration, making it difficult to assess the treatment effect for all patients in randomized clinical trials. Defining the appropriate estimand…

Applications · Statistics 2020-06-01 Yongming Qu , Junxiang Luo , Stephen J. Ruberg

Substantial advances in Bayesian methods for causal inference have been developed in recent years. We provide an introduction to Bayesian inference for causal effects for practicing statisticians who have some familiarity with Bayesian…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-12-12 Arman Oganisian , Jason A. Roy

Inferring causal effects of a treatment, intervention or policy from observational data is central to many applications. However, state-of-the-art methods for causal inference seldom consider the possibility that covariates have missing…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-02-26 Imke Mayer , Julie Josse , Félix Raimundo , Jean-Philippe Vert

Multiple imputation is widely used to handle missing data. Although Rubin's combining rule is simple, it is not clear whether or not the standard multiple imputation inference is consistent when coupled with the commonly-used full sample…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-01-03 Qian Guan , Shu Yang

While observational data are routinely used to estimate causal effects of biomedical treatments, doing so requires special methods to adjust for observed confounding. These methods invariably rely on untestable statistical and causal…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-03-02 Arman Oganisian

In some causal inference scenarios, the treatment variable is measured inaccurately, for instance in epidemiology or econometrics. Failure to correct for the effect of this measurement error can lead to biased causal effect estimates.…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-09-13 Antti Pöllänen , Pekka Marttinen

The estimands framework outlined in ICH E9 (R1) describes the components needed to precisely define the effects to be estimated in clinical trials, which includes how post-baseline "intercurrent" events (IEs) are to be handled. In…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-08-28 Thomas Drury , Juan J Abellan , Nicky Best , Ian R. White

The ICH E9(R1) Addendum (International Council for Harmonization 2019) suggests treatment-policy as one of several strategies for addressing intercurrent events such as treatment withdrawal when defining an estimand. This strategy requires…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-08-28 Suzie Cro , James H Roger , James R Carpenter
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