Related papers: Testing parametric additive time-varying GARCH mod…
We propose a new class of financial volatility models, called the REcurrent Conditional Heteroskedastic (RECH) models, to improve both in-sample analysis and out-ofsample forecasting of the traditional conditional heteroskedastic models. In…
We derive generalization error bounds for traditional time-series forecasting models. Our results hold for many standard forecasting tools including autoregressive models, moving average models, and, more generally, linear state-space…
Heteroskedasticity is a common feature of financial time series and is commonly addressed in the model building process through the use of ARCH and GARCH processes. More recently multivariate variants of these processes have been in the…
Volatility, which indicates the dispersion of returns, is a crucial measure of risk and is hence used extensively for pricing and discriminating between different financial investments. As a result, accurate volatility prediction receives…
This paper introduces a spatiotemporal exponential generalised autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (spatiotemporal E-GARCH) model, extending traditional spatiotemporal GARCH models by incorporating asymmetric volatility…
Orthogonal Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity model (OGARCH) is widely used in finance industry to produce volatility and correlation forecasts. We show that the classic OGARCH model, nevertheless, tends to be too…
We employ single-qubit quantum circuit learning (QCL) to model the dynamics of volatility time series. To assess its effectiveness, we generate synthetic data using the Rational GARCH model, which is specifically designed to capture…
This paper proposes a parsimoniously time varying parameter vector autoregressive model (with exogenous variables, VARX) and studies the properties of the Lasso and adaptive Lasso as estimators of this model. The parameters of the model are…
The purpose of this paper is to propose a time-varying vector autoregressive model (TV-VAR) for forecasting multivariate time series. The model is casted into a state-space form that allows flexible description and analysis. The volatility…
Working on different aspects of algorithmic trading we empirically discovered a new market invariant. It links together the volatility of the instrument with its traded volume, the average spread and the volume in the order book. The…
In this article, we study the asymptotic behaviour of the residual autocorrelations for periodic vector autoregressive time series models (PVAR henceforth) with uncorrelated but dependent innovations (i.e., weak PVAR). We then deduce the…
We investigate the properties of a continuous time GARCH process as the solution to a L\'evy driven stochastic functional integral equation. This process occurs as a weak limit of a sequence of discrete time GARCH processes as the time…
This study focuses on the problem of testing for normality of innovations in stationary time series models.To achieve this, we introduce an information matrix (IM) based test. While the IM test was originally developed to test for model…
Quasi-Maximum Likelihood (QML) procedures are theoretically appealing and widely used for statistical inference. While there are extensive references on QML estimation in batch settings, it has attracted little attention in streaming…
We study, both analytically and numerically, an ARCH-like, multiscale model of volatility, which assumes that the volatility is governed by the observed past price changes on different time scales. With a power-law distribution of time…
The Bayesian estimation of GARCH-family models has been typically addressed through Monte Carlo sampling. Variational Inference is gaining popularity and attention as a robust approach for Bayesian inference in complex machine learning…
In this paper, the tracking control problem of an Euler-Lagrange system is addressed with regard to parametric uncertainties, and an adaptive-robust control strategy, christened Time-Delayed Adaptive Robust Control (TARC), is presented.…
This article proposes a Model Reference Adaptive Control (MRAC) strategy to achieve fixed-time convergence of parameter estimation and tracking errors for unknown linear time-invariant systems, without relying on the persistence of…
There is a serious and long-standing restriction in the literature on heavy-tailed phenomena in that moment conditions, which are unrealistic, are almost always assumed in modelling such phenomena. Further, the issue of stability is often…
We introduce a new identification strategy for uncertainty shocks to explain macroeconomic volatility in financial markets. The Chicago Board Options Exchange Volatility Index (VIX) measures market expectations of future volatility, but…