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This paper introduces a novel approach for estimating heterogeneous treatment effects of binary treatment in panel data, particularly focusing on short panel data with large cross-sectional data and observed confoundings. In contrast to…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-06-05 Meijia Wang , Ignacio Martinez , P. Richard Hahn

We propose a novel formalism for describing Structural Causal Models (SCMs) as fixed-point problems on causally ordered variables, eliminating the need for Directed Acyclic Graphs (DAGs), and establish the weakest known conditions for their…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-12-16 Meyer Scetbon , Joel Jennings , Agrin Hilmkil , Cheng Zhang , Chao Ma

Applied researchers in biomedicine and related fields are often interested in estimating the causal effect of a treatment or intervention. Although randomized clinical trials are considered the gold standard for establishing causal effects,…

Deciding on an appropriate intervention requires a causal model of a treatment, the outcome, and potential mediators. Causal mediation analysis lets us distinguish between direct and indirect effects of the intervention, but has mostly been…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-06-19 Çağlar Hızlı , ST John , Anne Juuti , Tuure Saarinen , Kirsi Pietiläinen , Pekka Marttinen

This paper studies a panel data setting where the goal is to estimate causal effects of an intervention by predicting the counterfactual values of outcomes for treated units, had they not received the treatment. Several approaches have been…

Econometrics · Economics 2019-03-26 Susan Athey , Mohsen Bayati , Guido Imbens , Zhaonan Qu

The synthetic control method (SCM) is widely used for causal inference with panel data, particularly when the number of treated units is small. It relies on the stable unit treatment value assumption (SUTVA), ruling out spillover effects.…

Econometrics · Economics 2026-03-26 Shosei Sakaguchi , Hayato Tagawa

This study demonstrates the existence of a testable condition for the identification of the causal effect of a treatment on an outcome in observational data, which relies on two sets of variables: observed covariates to be controlled for…

Econometrics · Economics 2026-05-20 Martin Huber , Jannis Kueck

In biomedical research, repeated measurements within each subject are often processed to remove artifacts and unwanted sources of variation. The resulting data are used to construct derived outcomes that act as proxies for scientific…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-02-03 Zihang Wang , Razieh Nabi , Benjamin B. Risk

The presence of unobserved confounders is one of the main challenges in identifying treatment effects. In this paper, we propose a new approach to causal inference using panel data with large large $N$ and $T$. Our approach imputes the…

Econometrics · Economics 2025-03-28 Ben Deaner , Chen-Wei Hsiang , Andrei Zeleneev

The primary analysis in two-arm clinical trials usually involves inference on a scalar treatment effect parameter; e.g., depending on the outcome, the difference of treatment-specific means, risk difference, risk ratio, or odds ratio. Most…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-04-25 Anastasios A. Tsiatis , Marie Davidian

One of the most fundamental problems in causal inference is the estimation of a causal effect when variables are confounded. This is difficult in an observational study, because one has no direct evidence that all confounders have been…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2014-11-03 Ricardo Silva , Robin Evans

Bipartite experiments are a recent object of study in causal inference, whereby treatment is applied to one set of units and outcomes of interest are measured on a different set of units. These experiments are particularly useful in…

Dynamic structural causal models (SCMs) are a powerful framework for reasoning in dynamic systems about direct effects which measure how a change in one variable affects another variable while holding all other variables constant. The…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2024-02-16 Simon Ferreira , Charles K. Assaad

Classical causal and statistical inference methods typically assume the observed data consists of independent realizations. However, in many applications this assumption is inappropriate due to a network of dependences between units in the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-07-02 Rohit Bhattacharya , Daniel Malinsky , Ilya Shpitser

In recent years, there has been a growing interest in using machine learning techniques for the estimation of treatment effects. Most of the best-performing methods rely on representation learning strategies that encourage shared behavior…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-04-19 Roger Pros , Jordi Vitrià

Causal inference methods for observational data are highly regarded due to their wide applicability. While there are already numerous methods available for de-confounding bias, these methods generally assume that covariates consist solely…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-04-30 Yonghe Zhao , Huiyan Sun

Causal inference methods are widely applied in the fields of medicine, policy, and economics. Central to these applications is the estimation of treatment effects to make decisions. Current methods make binary yes-or-no decisions based on…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-04-24 Will Y. Zou , Smitha Shyam , Michael Mui , Mingshi Wang , Jan Pedersen , Zoubin Ghahramani

Instrumental variables (IVs) are often continuous, arising in diverse fields such as economics, epidemiology, and the social sciences. Existing approaches for continuous IVs typically impose strong parametric models or assume homogeneous…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-10-17 Mei Dong , Lin Liu , Dingke Tang , Geoffrey Liu , Wei Xu , Linbo Wang

Causal inference is a critical task across fields such as healthcare, economics, and the social sciences. While recent advances in machine learning, especially those based on the deep-learning architectures, have shown potential in…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-12-30 Manqing Liu , David R. Bellamy , Andrew L. Beam

The recovery of causal effects in structural models with missing data often relies on $m$-graphs, which assume that missingness mechanisms do not directly influence substantive variables. Yet, in many real-world settings, missing data can…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-06-19 Johan de Aguas , Leonard Henckel , Johan Pensar , Guido Biele
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