Related papers: Extreme-case Range Value-at-Risk under Increasing …
The issue of model risk in default modeling has been known since inception of the Academic literature in the field. However, a rigorous treatment requires a description of all the possible models, and a measure of the distance between a…
We obtain error terms on the rate of convergence to Extreme Value Laws for a general class of weakly dependent stochastic processes. The dependence of the error terms on the `time' and `length' scales is very explicit. Specialising to data…
The Solvency II Directive and Solvency Assessment and Management (the South African equivalent) give a Solvency Capital Requirement which is based on a 99.5% Value-at-Risk (VaR) calculation. This calculation involves aggregating individual…
The popularity of Conditional Value-at-Risk (CVaR), a risk functional from finance, has been growing in the control systems community due to its intuitive interpretation and axiomatic foundation. We consider a nonstandard optimal control…
We establish sharp upper and lower bounds for distortion risk metrics under distributional uncertainty. The uncertainty sets are characterized by four key features of the underlying distribution: mean, variance, unimodality, and Wasserstein…
We consider a class of chance-constrained programs in which profit needs to be maximized while enforcing that a given adverse event remains rare. Using techniques from large deviations and extreme value theory, we show how the optimal value…
Expectile bears some interesting properties in comparison to the industry wide expected shortfall in terms of assessment of tail risk. We study the relationship between expectile and expected shortfall using duality results and the link to…
In economics, insurance and finance, value at risk (VaR) is a widely used measure of the risk of loss on a specific portfolio of financial assets. For a given portfolio, time horizon, and probability $\alpha$, the $100\alpha\%$ VaR is…
The Value-at-Risk (VaR) is a widely used instrument in financial risk management. The question of estimating the VaR of loss return distributions at extreme levels is an important question in financial applications, both from operational…
We study the properties of Expected Shortfall from the point of view of financial risk management. This measure --- which emerges as a natural remedy in some cases where Value at Risk (VaR) is not able to distinguish portfolios which bear…
We conduct a non asymptotic study of the Cross Validation (CV) estimate of the generalization risk for learning algorithms dedicated to extreme regions of the covariates space. In this Extreme Value Analysis context, the risk function…
In this paper we perform an analytical and numerical study of Extreme Value distributions in discrete dynamical systems. In this setting, recent works have shown how to get a statistics of extremes in agreement with the classical Extreme…
In this paper, we study the risk bounds for samples independently drawn from an infinitely divisible (ID) distribution. In particular, based on a martingale method, we develop two deviation inequalities for a sequence of random variables of…
This paper studies the propagation of finite-sample uncertainty under nonlinear transformations commonly used in statistical decision systems. In particular, we consider process capability indices, which are widely used in manufacturing…
Extremal dependence between international stock markets is of particular interest in today's global financial landscape. However, previous studies have shown this dependence is not necessarily stationary over time. We concern ourselves with…
It is shown that the axioms for coherent risk measures imply that whenever there is an asset in a portfolio that dominates the others in a given sample (which happens with finite probability even for large samples), then this portfolio…
Expected Shortfall (ES) in several variants has been proposed as remedy for the defi-ciencies of Value-at-Risk (VaR) which in general is not a coherent risk measure. In fact, most definitions of ES lead to the same results when applied to…
This paper studies Pareto-optimal reinsurance design in a monopolistic market with multiple primary insurers and a single reinsurer, all with heterogeneous risk preferences. The risk preferences are characterized by a family of risk…
In this work, we deal with extreme value theory in the context of continued fractions using techniques from probability theory, ergodic theory and real analysis. We give an upper bound for the rate of convergence in the Doeblin-Iosifescu…
We develop an averaging approach to robust risk measurement under payoff uncertainty. Instead of taking a worst-case value over an uncertainty neighborhood, we weight nearby payoffs more heavily under a chosen metric and average the…