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New Large Language Models (LLMs) become available every few weeks, and modern application developers confronted with the unenviable task of having to decide if they should switch to a new model. While human evaluation remains the gold…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2025-12-25 Suryaansh Jain , Umair Z. Ahmed , Shubham Sahai , Ben Leong

Several statistical models are given in the form of unnormalized densities, and calculation of the normalization constant is intractable. We propose estimation methods for such unnormalized models with missing data. The key concept is to…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-06-11 Masatoshi Uehara , Takeru Matsuda , Jae Kwang Kim

Machine learning applications often require calibrated predictions, e.g. a 90\% credible interval should contain the true outcome 90\% of the times. However, typical definitions of calibration only require this to hold on average, and offer…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-09-10 Shengjia Zhao , Tengyu Ma , Stefano Ermon

Missing data are often dealt with multiple imputation. A crucial part of the multiple imputation process is selecting sensible models to generate plausible values for incomplete data. A method based on posterior predictive checking is…

Computation · Statistics 2026-05-14 Mingyang Cai , Stef van Buuren , Gerko Vink

We provide guidance on multiple imputation of missing at random treatments in observational studies. Specifically, analysts should account for both covariates and outcomes, i.e., not just use propensity scores, when imputing the missing…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-01-23 Joseph Feldman , Jerome P. Reiter

Missing data is an important challenge when dealing with high dimensional data arranged in the form of an array. In this paper, we propose methods for estimation of the parameters of array variate normal probability model from partially…

Methodology · Statistics 2015-01-06 Deniz Akdemir

In fitting a mixture of linear regression models, normal assumption is traditionally used to model the error and then regression parameters are estimated by the maximum likelihood estimators (MLE). This procedure is not valid if the normal…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-11-06 Yanyuan Ma , Shaoli Wang , Lin Xu , Weixin Yao

Conditions ensuring optimal parameter estimation in the presence of missing data are well established in inference, typically relying on the Missing-at-Random (MAR) assumption. In prediction, similar principles are often assumed to apply.…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-03-19 Pierre Catoire , Robin Genuer , Cecile Proust-Lima

Many datasets suffer from missing values due to various reasons,which not only increases the processing difficulty of related tasks but also reduces the accuracy of classification. To address this problem, the mainstream approach is to use…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-08-14 Cong Guo , Chun Liu , Wei Yang

Propensity score matching (PSM) is a pseudo-experimental method that uses statistical techniques to construct an artificial control group by matching each treated unit with one or more untreated units of similar characteristics. To date,…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2022-05-27 Yukun Liu , Jing Qin

We propose a procedure for imputing missing values of time-dependent covariates in a survival model using fully conditional specification. Specifically, we focus on imputing missing values of a longitudinal marker in joint modeling of the…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-03-29 Havi Murad , Nirit Agay , Rachel Dankner

A common approach for handling missing values in data analysis pipelines is multiple imputation via software packages such as MICE (Van Buuren and Groothuis-Oudshoorn, 2011) and Amelia (Honaker et al., 2011). These packages typically assume…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-07-23 Trung Phung , Kyle Reese , Ilya Shpitser , Rohit Bhattacharya

Bayesian model comparison (BMC) offers a principled probabilistic approach to study and rank competing models. In standard BMC, we construct a discrete probability distribution over the set of possible models, conditional on the observed…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-02-22 Marvin Schmitt , Stefan T. Radev , Paul-Christian Bürkner

Probabilistic programming has emerged as a powerful paradigm in statistics, applied science, and machine learning: by decoupling modelling from inference, it promises to allow modellers to directly reason about the processes generating…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2019-06-10 Maria I. Gorinova , Dave Moore , Matthew D. Hoffman

The abundance of data produced daily from large variety of sources has boosted the need of novel approaches on causal inference analysis from observational data. Observational data often contain noisy or missing entries. Moreover, causal…

Methodology · Statistics 2017-03-14 Fani Tsapeli , Peter Tino , Mirco Musolesi

Multiple imputation (MI) has become one of the main procedures used to treat missing data, but the guidelines from the methodological literature are not easily transferred to multilevel research. For models including random slopes, proper…

Methodology · Statistics 2016-06-30 Simon Grund , Oliver Lüdtke , Alexander Robitzsch

The inferential models (IM) framework provides prior-free, frequency-calibrated, posterior probabilistic inference. The key is the use of random sets to predict unobservable auxiliary variables connected to the observable data and unknown…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2016-01-26 Ryan Martin , Chuanhai Liu

The recently proposed Collaborative Metric Learning (CML) paradigm has aroused wide interest in the area of recommendation systems (RS) owing to its simplicity and effectiveness. Typically, the existing literature of CML depends largely on…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-06-24 Shilong Bao , Qianqian Xu , Zhiyong Yang , Xiaochun Cao , Qingming Huang

Economists are blessed with a wealth of data for analysis, but more often than not, values in some entries of the data matrix are missing. Various methods have been proposed to handle missing observations in a few variables. We exploit the…

Econometrics · Economics 2022-02-02 Ercument Cahan , Jushan Bai , Serena Ng

Projection predictive inference is a decision theoretic Bayesian approach that decouples model estimation from decision making. Given a reference model previously built including all variables present in the data, projection predictive…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-10-15 Alejandro Catalina , Paul-Christian Bürkner , Aki Vehtari