Related papers: Interpretable Time Series Autoregression for Perio…
Real-world time series data exhibit non-stationary behavior, regime shifts, and temporally varying noise (heteroscedastic) that degrade the robustness of standard regression models. We introduce the Variability-Aware Recursive Neural…
In this contribution we introduce weakly locally stationary time series through the local approximation of the non-stationary covariance structure by a stationary one. This allows us to define autoregression coefficients in a non-stationary…
The sparsity-ranked lasso (SRL) has been developed for model selection and estimation in the presence of interactions and polynomials. The main tenet of the SRL is that an algorithm should be more skeptical of higher-order polynomials and…
Existing methods of vector autoregressive model for multivariate time series analysis make use of low-rank matrix approximation or Tucker decomposition to reduce the dimension of the over-parameterization issue. In this paper, we propose a…
In this paper we investigate forecasting coevolving time series that feature intricate dependencies and nonstationary dynamics by using an LLM Large Language Models approach We propose a novel modeling approach named ContextAware ARLLM…
Estimating a sparse covariance matrix is a fundamental problem in high-dimensional statistics. However, thresholding methods developed for independent data are generally not directly applicable to high-dimensional time series, where…
We develop a Bayesian vector autoregressive (VAR) model with multivariate stochastic volatility that is capable of handling vast dimensional information sets. Three features are introduced to permit reliable estimation of the model. First,…
Causal representation learning (CRL) seeks to recover latent variables with identifiability guarantees, typically up to permutation and component-wise reparameterization under appropriate assumptions. However, identifiability does not imply…
Structural vector autoregressive (SVAR) models are widely used to analyze the simultaneous relationships between multiple time-dependent data. Various statistical inference methods have been studied to overcome the identification problems…
Multivariate network time series are ubiquitous in modern systems, yet existing network autoregressive models typically treat nodes as scalar processes, ignoring cross-variable spillovers. To capture these complex interactions without the…
The classical vector autoregressive model is a fundamental tool for multivariate time series analysis. However, it involves too many parameters when the number of time series and lag order are even moderately large. This paper proposes to…
This paper introduces structured machine learning regressions for high-dimensional time series data potentially sampled at different frequencies. The sparse-group LASSO estimator can take advantage of such time series data structures and…
Repeated measures analyses require proper choice of the correlation model to ensure accurate inference and optimal efficiency. The linear exponent autoregressive (LEAR) correlation model provides a flexible two-parameter correlation…
Motivated by Tucker tensor decomposition, this paper imposes low-rank structures to the column and row spaces of coefficient matrices in a multivariate infinite-order vector autoregression (VAR), which leads to a supervised factor model…
Visual autoregressive (VAR) models have recently emerged as a promising alternative for image generation, offering stable training, non-iterative inference, and high-fidelity synthesis through next-scale prediction. This encourages the…
We propose a parsimonious spatiotemporal model for time series data on a spatial grid. Our model is capable of dealing with high-dimensional time series data that may be collected at hundreds of locations and capturing the spatial…
Collecting time series data spatially distributed in many locations is often important for analyzing climate change and its impacts on ecosystems. However, comprehensive spatial data collection is not always feasible, requiring us to…
Conjugate priors allow for fast inference in large dimensional vector autoregressive (VAR) models but, at the same time, introduce the restriction that each equation features the same set of explanatory variables. This paper proposes a…
Spatial autoregressive model, introduced by Clif and Ord in 1970s has been widely applied in many areas of science and econometrics such as regional economics, public finance, political sciences, agricultural economics, environmental…
Time series data is prevalent in a wide variety of real-world applications and it calls for trustworthy and explainable models for people to understand and fully trust decisions made by AI solutions. We consider the problem of building…