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We propose a principled framework for nonparametric empirical Bayes (EB) estimation, based on the idea that the prior should be consistent with the observed posterior and that Bayesian updating should be stable. Focusing on discretized…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-07-14 Valentino Dardanoni , Stefano Demichelis

Reinforcement Learning with Verifiable Rewards (RLVR) has become a central approach for improving the reasoning ability of large language models. Recent work studies RLVR through token entropy, arguing that high-entropy tokens drive…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-12-02 Xinzhu Chen , Xuesheng Li , Zhongxiang Sun , Weijie Yu

The analyticity of the entropy and relative entropy rates of continuous-state hidden Markov models is studied here. Using the analytic continuation principle and the stability properties of the optimal filter, the analyticity of these rates…

Information Theory · Computer Science 2019-09-02 Vladislav Z. B. Tadic , Arnaud Doucet

Large Language Models (LLMs) that can express interpretable and calibrated uncertainty are crucial in high-stakes domains. While methods to compute uncertainty post-hoc exist, they are often sampling-based and therefore computationally…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-03-09 Azza Jenane , Nassim Walha , Lukas Kuhn , Florian Buettner

Randomized benchmarking (RB) is a popular procedure used to gauge the performance of a set of gates useful for quantum information processing (QIP). Recently, Proctor et al. [Phys. Rev. Lett. 119, 130502 (2017)] demonstrated a practically…

Quantum Physics · Physics 2019-07-04 Jiaan Qi , Hui Khoon Ng

Selective prediction systems can mitigate harms resulting from language model hallucinations by abstaining from answering in high-risk cases. Uncertainty quantification techniques are often employed to identify such cases, but are rarely…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2026-03-24 Edward Phillips , Fredrik K. Gustafsson , Sean Wu , Anshul Thakur , David A. Clifton

Model-based planning holds great promise for improving both sample efficiency and generalization in reinforcement learning (RL). We show that energy-based models (EBMs) are a promising class of models to use for model-based planning. EBMs…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-03-09 Yilun Du , Toru Lin , Igor Mordatch

Complex behaviors are often driven by an internal model, which integrates sensory information over time and facilitates long-term planning. Inferring an agent's internal model is a crucial ingredient in social interactions (theory of mind),…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-06-13 Zhengwei Wu , Paul Schrater , Xaq Pitkow

Covariate balance is a conventional key diagnostic for methods used estimating causal effects from observational studies. Recently, there is an emerging interest in directly incorporating covariate balance in the estimation. We study a…

Methodology · Statistics 2017-02-14 Qingyuan Zhao , Daniel Percival

Entropy notions for $\varepsilon$-incremental practical stability and incremental stability of deterministic nonlinear systems under disturbances are introduced. The entropy notions are constructed via a set of points in state space which…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2022-09-13 Michelle S. Chong

Large language model (LLM) agents are increasingly expected to operate in enterprise environments, where work is distributed across specialized roles, permission-controlled systems, and cross-departmental procedures. However, existing…

As large language models (LLMs) increasingly engage in complex social interactions, ensuring that their behaviors align with human ethical principles and intentions, known as value alignment, has become a critical scientific challenge.…

Computational Engineering, Finance, and Science · Computer Science 2026-05-29 Yu Lei , Hao Liu , Chengxing Xie , Songjia Liu , Zhiyu Yin , Canyu Chen , Guohao Li , Philip Torr , Zhen Wu

Reinforcement learning from verifiable rewards (RLVR) is an emerging paradigm for improving the reasoning ability of large language models. However, standard on-policy training discards rollout experiences after a single update, leading to…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-03-03 Runzhe Zhan , Yafu Li , Zhi Wang , Xiaoye Qu , Dongrui Liu , Jing Shao , Derek F. Wong , Yu Cheng

Accurately forecasting central bank policy decisions, particularly those of the Federal Open Market Committee(FOMC) has become increasingly important amid heightened economic uncertainty. While prior studies have used monetary policy texts…

Computational Finance · Quantitative Finance 2025-11-05 Kaito Takano , Masanori Hirano , Kei Nakagawa

We study minimal single-task peer prediction mechanisms that have limited knowledge about agents' beliefs. Without knowing what agents' beliefs are or eliciting additional information, it is not possible to design a truthful mechanism in a…

Computer Science and Game Theory · Computer Science 2017-11-28 Goran Radanovic , Boi Faltings

Deep research agents face vast, interdependent, and pervasively uncertain information. Existing systems explore what evolving intermediate representations should look like, but leave their evolution to the LLM's implicit reasoning. Without…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2026-05-26 Haolang Zhao , Yunbo Long , Lukas Beckenbauer , Alexandra Brintrup

The problem of assigning probability distributions which objectively reflect the prior information available about experiments is one of the major stumbling blocks in the use of Bayesian methods of data analysis. In this paper the method of…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2009-11-10 Ariel Caticha , Roland Preuss

Recent advances in computational perception have significantly improved the ability of autonomous robots to perform state estimation with low entropy. Such advances motivate a reconsideration of robot decision-making under uncertainty.…

Robotics · Computer Science 2021-10-19 Alphonsus Adu-Bredu , Zhen Zeng , Neha Pusalkar , Odest Chadwicke Jenkins

State entropy regularization has empirically shown better exploration and sample complexity in reinforcement learning (RL). However, its theoretical guarantees have not been studied. In this paper, we show that state entropy regularization…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-12-02 Yonatan Ashlag , Uri Koren , Mirco Mutti , Esther Derman , Pierre-Luc Bacon , Shie Mannor

The empirical risk minimization (ERM) problem with relative entropy regularization (ERM-RER) is investigated under the assumption that the reference measure is a $\sigma$-finite measure, and not necessarily a probability measure. Under this…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2024-04-09 Samir M. Perlaza , Gaetan Bisson , Iñaki Esnaola , Alain Jean-Marie , Stefano Rini