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Identification of the influential clinical symptoms and laboratory features that help in the diagnosis of dengue fever in early phase of the illness would aid in designing effective public health management and virological surveillance…
We analyze the dephasing dynamics of an impurity coupled to an anharmonic environment. We show that a strong anharmonicity produces two different effects depending on the environment temperature: for high temperatures, the system suffers a…
Multistrain diseases have multiple distinct coexisting serotypes (strains). For some diseases, such as dengue fever, the serotypes interact by antibody-dependent enhancement (ADE), in which infection with a single serotype is asymptomatic,…
Environmental phenomena are influenced by complex interactions among various factors. For instance, the amount of rainfall measured at different stations within a given area is shaped by atmospheric conditions, orography, and physics of…
During the last decades, the global prevalence of dengue progressed dramatically. It is a disease which is now endemic in more than one hundred countries of Africa, America, Asia and the Western Pacific. This study addresses a mathematical…
Simulation of rainfall over a region for long time-sequences can be very useful for planning and policy-making, especially in India where the economy is heavily reliant on monsoon rainfall. However, such simulations should be able to…
The Bayesian analysis of infectious disease surveillance data from multiple locations typically involves building and fitting a spatio-temporal model of how the disease spreads in the structured population. Here we present new generally…
A model for the transmission of dengue disease is presented. It consists of eight mutually-exclusive compartments representing the human and vector dynamics. It also includes a control parameter (adulticide spray) in order to combat the…
We investigate whether the structural connectivity of urban road networks helps explain dengue incidence in Recife, Brazil (2015--2024). For each neighborhood, we compute the average \emph{communicability curvature}, a graph-theoretic…
Thermal conditions in the urban canopy exhibit stochastic variability driven by varied radiative fluxes and turbulent wind fields, requiring probabilistic rather than deterministic prediction methods. This study presents a probabilistic…
In this article, we focus on the analysis of the potential factors driving the spread of influenza, and possible policies to mitigate the adverse effects of the disease. To be precise, we first invoke discrete Fourier transform (DFT) to…
Population dynamics with spatial information is applied to understand the spread of pests. We introduce a model describing how pests spread in discrete space. The number of pest descendants at each site is controlled by local information…
We developed an integrated recurrent neural network and nonlinear regression spatio-temporal model for vector-borne disease evolution. We take into account climate data and seasonality as external factors that correlate with disease…
In this paper, we propose a Bayesian matrix-variate spatiotemporal modeling framework for jointly analyzing multiple response variables observed at spatial locations over time. The approach relaxes the standard assumption of spatial…
Due to the profound impact of air pollution on human health, livelihoods, and economic development, air quality forecasting is of paramount significance. Initially, we employ the causal graph method to scrutinize the constraints of existing…
The integration of longitudinal measurements and survival time in statistical modeling offers a powerful framework for capturing the interplay between these two essential outcomes, particularly when they exhibit associations. However, in…
Dengue transmission is shaped by the population dynamics of the Aedes aegypti mosquito, making vector control a central strategy for disease mitigation. The impact of interventions such as larvicide, adulticide, and breeding-site reduction…
Understanding epidemic dynamics in urban environments requires models that capture interactions across space and time while incorporating biological constraints. In this work, we propose a probabilistic spatiotemporal framework based on…
Dengue is a major threat to public health in Brazil, the world's sixth biggest country by population, with over 1.5 million cases recorded in 2019 alone. Official data on dengue case counts is delivered incrementally and, for many reasons,…
Influenza forecasting in the United States (US) is complex and challenging for reasons including substantial spatial and temporal variability, nested geographic scales of forecast interest, and heterogeneous surveillance participation. Here…