Related papers: Linking climate and dengue in the Philippines usin…
We introduce a method for decomposition of trend, cycle and seasonal components in spatio-temporal models and apply it to investigate the existence of climate changes in temperature and rainfall series. The method incorporates critical…
Dengue incidence forecasting using hybrid models has been surging in the data rich world. Hybridization of statistical time series forecasting models and machine learning models are explored for dengue forecasting with different degrees of…
This paper aims to extend the Besag model, a widely used Bayesian spatial model in disease mapping, to a non-stationary spatial model for irregular lattice-type data. The goal is to improve the model's ability to capture complex spatial…
Dengue is a viral infection that can produce a severe fever and symptoms that may require hospitalization. It is transmitted between humans by the urban-adapted, day-biting Aedes mosquitoes and is therefore a particular problem in towns and…
Univariate zero-inflated models are increasingly being used to account for excess zeros in spatio-temporal infectious disease counts. However, the multivariate case is challenging due to the need to account for correlations across space,…
Dengue fever is one of the most deadly mosquito-born tropical infectious diseases. Detailed long range forecast model is vital in controlling the spread of disease and making mitigation efforts. In this study, we examine methods used to…
The hazard of pluvial flooding is largely influenced by the spatial and temporal dependence characteristics of precipitation. When extreme precipitation possesses strong spatial dependence, the risk of flooding is amplified due to catchment…
Dengue is a serious health problem in the Philippines. In 2016, the Department of Health of the country launched a dengue vaccination campaign using Dengvaxia. However, the campaign was mired with controversy and the use of Dengvaxia was…
The influence of climate on mosquito-borne diseases like dengue and chikungunya is well-established, but comprehensively tracking long-term spatial and temporal trends across large areas has been hindered by fragmented data and limited…
The rampant phenomenon of overpopulation and the remarkable increase of human movements over the last decade have caused an aggressive re-emergence of dengue fever, which made it the subject of several research fields. In this regard,…
We construct an epidemic model for the transmission of dengue fever with an early-life stage in the vector dynamics and age-structure within hosts. The early-life stage of the vector is modeled via a general function that supports multiple…
Precipitation is a complex physical process that varies in space and time. Predictions and interpolations at unobserved times and/or locations help to solve important problems in many areas. In this paper, we present a hierarchical Bayesian…
High dimensional space-time data pose known computational challenges when fitting spatio-temporal models. Such data show dependence across several dimensions of space as well as in time, and can easily involve hundreds of thousands of…
The substantial threat of concurrent air pollutants to public health is increasingly severe under climate change. To identify the common drivers and extent of spatio-temporal similarity of PM2.5 and ozone, this paper proposed a log…
A variety of models have been developed to forecast dengue cases to date. However, it remains a challenge to predict major dengue outbreaks that need timely public warnings the most. In this paper, we introduce CrossLag, an environmentally…
We introduce a dengue model (SEIR) where the human individuals are treated on an individual basis (IBM) while the mosquito population, produced by an independent model, is treated by compartments (SEI). We study the spread of epidemics by…
Diffusion processes in a social system are governed by external triggers and internal excitations via interactions between individuals over social networks. Underlying mechanisms are crucial to understand emergent phenomena in the real…
Bangladesh's worsening dengue crisis, fueled by its tropical climate, poor waste management infrastructure, rapid urbanization, and dense population, has led to increasingly deadly outbreaks, posing a significant public health threat. To…
Projections of future climate change rely heavily on climate models, and combining climate models through a multi-model ensemble is both more accurate than a single climate model and valuable for uncertainty quantification. However,…
Spatially constrained clustering is an important field of research, particularly when it involves changes over time. Partitioning a map is not simple since there is a vast number of possible partitions within the search space. In…