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Monitoring tools for anticipatory action are increasingly gaining traction to improve the efficiency and timeliness of humanitarian responses. Whilst predictive models can now forecast conflicts with high accuracy, translating these…
Predicting forced displacement is an important undertaking of many humanitarian aid agencies, which must anticipate flows in advance in order to provide vulnerable refugees and Internally Displaced Persons (IDPs) with shelter, food, and…
In the current context of climate change, extreme heatwaves, droughts, and floods are not only impacting the biosphere and atmosphere but the anthroposphere too. Human populations are forcibly displaced, which are now referred to as…
The risk of conflict is exasperated by a multitude of internal and external factors. Current multivariate analysis paints diverse causal risk profiles that vary with time. However, these profiles evolve and a universal model to understand…
Whether in search of better trade opportunities or escaping wars, humans have always been on the move. For almost a century, mathematical models of human mobility have been instrumental in the quantification of commuting patterns and…
Existing models of political violence often emphasize discrete transitions, when conflicts emerge, escalate, or subside, without considering the longer trajectories of violence that accumulate across time and space. This paper introduces a…
Armed conflict has led to an unprecedented number of internally displaced persons (IDPs) - individuals who are forced out of their homes but remain within their country. IDPs often urgently require shelter, food, and healthcare, yet…
Ecologists have long investigated how demographic and movement parameters determine the spatial distribution and critical habitat size of a population. However, most models oversimplify movement behavior, neglecting how landscape…
Timely population displacement estimates are critical for humanitarian response during disasters, but traditional surveys and field assessments are slow. Mobile phone data enables near real-time tracking, yet existing approaches apply…
Climate change is reshaping species interactions and movement across fragmented landscapes. Despite this, most mathematical models assume random diffusion, overlooking the influence of directed movement. Here, we develop a graph based…
Extreme weather events have significant consequences, dominating the impact of climate on society. While high-resolution weather models can forecast many types of extreme events on synoptic timescales, long-term climatological risk…
An important challenge in several disciplines is to understand how sudden changes can propagate among coupled systems. Examples include the synchronization of business cycles, population collapse in patchy ecosystems, markets shifting to a…
Precipitation is one of the most important meteorological variables for defining the climate dynamics, but the spatial patterns of precipitation have not been fully investigated yet. The complex network theory, which provides a robust tool…
Human mobility is a key factor in spatial disease dynamics and related phenomena. In computational models host mobility is typically modelled by diffusion in space or on metapolulation networks. Alternatively, an effective force of…
Expected urban population doubling calls for a compelling theory of the city. Random walks and diffusions defined on spatial city graphs spot hidden areas of geographical isolation in the urban landscape going downhill. First--passage time…
Understanding how conflict events spread over time and space is crucial for predicting and mitigating future violence. However, progress in this area has been limited by the lack of methods capable of capturing the intricate, dynamic…
Many rare weather events, including hurricanes, droughts, and floods, dramatically impact human life. To accurately forecast these events and characterize their climatology requires specialized mathematical techniques to fully leverage the…
Climate change is altering the frequency and intensity of wildfires, leading to increased evacuation events that disrupt human mobility and socioeconomic structures. These disruptions affect access to resources, employment, and housing,…
We investigate a model for spatial epidemics explicitly taking into account bi-directional movements between base and destination locations on individual mobility networks. We provide a systematic analysis of generic dynamical features of…
While traditional data systems remain fundamental to humanitarian response, they often lack the real-time responsiveness and spatial precision needed to capture increasingly complex patterns of displacement. Internal displacement reached an…