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Uncertainty quantification (UQ) is essential for safe deployment of generative AI models such as large language models (LLMs), especially in high stakes applications. Conformal prediction (CP) offers a principled uncertainty quantification…

Quantifying uncertainty of machine learning model predictions is essential for reliable decision-making, especially in safety-critical applications. Recently, uncertainty quantification (UQ) theory has advanced significantly, building on a…

Uncertainty quantification (UQ) is crucial in machine learning, yet most (axiomatic) studies of uncertainty measures focus on classification, leaving a gap in regression settings with limited formal justification and evaluations. In this…

Large language models (LLMs) often produce confident yet incorrect responses, and uncertainty quantification is one potential solution to more robust usage. Recent works routinely rely on self-consistency to estimate aleatoric uncertainty…

While large pretrained language models (PLMs) demonstrate incredible fluency and performance on many natural language tasks, recent work has shown that well-performing PLMs are very sensitive to what prompts are feed into them. Even when…

Large Language Models (LLMs) are increasingly explored as knowledge bases (KBs), yet current evaluation methods focus too narrowly on knowledge retention, overlooking other crucial criteria for reliable performance. In this work, we rethink…

Confidence estimation for text-to-SQL aims to assess the reliability of model-generated SQL queries without having access to gold answers. We study this problem in the context of large language models (LLMs), where access to model weights…

Hallucination in large language models (LLMs) can be detected by assessing the uncertainty of model outputs, typically measured using entropy. Semantic entropy (SE) enhances traditional entropy estimation by quantifying uncertainty at the…

Neural networks (NNs) are currently changing the computational paradigm on how to combine data with mathematical laws in physics and engineering in a profound way, tackling challenging inverse and ill-posed problems not solvable with…

Advances in the general capabilities of large language models (LLMs) have led to their use for information retrieval, and as components in automated decision systems. A faithful representation of probabilistic reasoning in these models may…

We analyze an ensemble-based approach for uncertainty quantification (UQ) in atomistic neural networks. This method generates an epistemic uncertainty signal without requiring changes to the underlying multi-headed regression neural network…

Large Language Models (LLMs) display formidable capabilities in generative tasks but also pose potential risks due to their tendency to generate hallucinatory responses. Uncertainty Quantification (UQ), the evaluation of model output…

Large Language Models (LLMs) have the tendency to hallucinate, i.e., to sporadically generate false or fabricated information. This presents a major challenge, as hallucinations often appear highly convincing and users generally lack the…

Uncertainty quantification (UQ) is an essential tool for applying deep neural networks (DNNs) to real world tasks, as it attaches a degree of confidence to DNN outputs. However, despite its benefits, UQ is often left out of the standard DNN…

We introduce BSDetector, a method for detecting bad and speculative answers from a pretrained Large Language Model by estimating a numeric confidence score for any output it generated. Our uncertainty quantification technique works for any…

Large language models (LLMs) that do not give consistent answers across contexts are problematic when used for tasks with expectations of consistency, e.g., question-answering, explanations, etc. Our work presents an evaluation benchmark…

Machine learning (ML) offers promising new approaches to tackle complex problems and has been increasingly adopted in chemical and materials sciences. Broadly speaking, ML models employ generic mathematical functions and attempt to learn…

Uncertainty estimation is crucial for the reliability of safety-critical human and artificial intelligence (AI) interaction systems, particularly in the domain of healthcare engineering. However, a robust and general uncertainty measure for…

Large Language Models (LLMs) are increasingly employed in real-world applications, driving the need to evaluate the trustworthiness of their generated text. To this end, reliable uncertainty estimation is essential. Leading uncertainty…

Large language models (LLMs) are increasingly used in high-stakes settings, where overconfident responses can mislead users. Reliable confidence estimation has been shown to enhance trust and task accuracy. Yet existing methods face…