Related papers: Stochastic Coefficient of Variation: Assessing the…
Probabilistic forecasts of renewable energy production provide users with valuable information about the uncertainty associated with the expected generation. Current state-of-the-art forecasts for solar irradiance have focused on producing…
In this paper, a stochastic model with regime switching is developed for solar photo-voltaic (PV) power in order to provide short-term probabilistic forecasts. The proposed model for solar PV power is physics inspired and explicitly…
Surface solar irradiance varies on scales as small as seconds or meters due to scattering and absorption by the atmosphere. Clouds are the main driver of this variability, but moisture structures in the atmospheric boundary layer and…
Owing to the growing concern of global warming and over-dependence on fossil fuels, there has been a huge interest in last years in the deployment of Photovoltaic (PV) systems for generating electricity. The output power of a PV array…
The variation in the radiative output of the Sun, described in terms of solar irradiance, is important to climatology. A common assumption is that solar irradiance variability is driven by its surface magnetism. Verifying this assumption…
In this work, we extend the data-driven It\^{o} stochastic differential equation (SDE) framework for the pathwise assessment of short-term forecast errors to account for the time-dependent upper bound that naturally constrains the…
In this work we analyse a set of benchmark methods for solar irradiance forecasting based on the clear-sky index, namely, persistence, climatology, smart-persistence and convex combination (CC) of persistence and climatology. To assess the…
The Sun has long been considered a constant star, to the extent that its total irradiance was termed the solar constant. It required radiometers in space to detect the small variations in solar irradiance on timescales of the solar rotation…
Clouds cast shadows on the surface and locally enhance solar irradiance by absorbing and scattering sunlight, resulting in fast and large solar irradiance fluctuations on the surface. Typical spatiotemporal scales and driving mechanisms of…
Context: The cross-covariance of solar oscillations observed at pairs of points on the solar surface is a fundamental ingredient in time-distance helioseismology. Wave travel times are extracted from the cross-covariance function and are…
A stochastic model predictive controller (SMPC) of air conditioning (AC) system is proposed to improve the energy efficiency of electric vehicles (EV). A Markov-chain based velocity predictor is adopted to provide a sense of the future…
Despite the remarkable progress in emerging solar cell technologies such as hybrid organic-inorganic perovskites, there are still significant limitations related to the stability of the devices and their non-ideal electrical behavior under…
Spatio-temporal problems exist in many areas of knowledge and disciplines ranging from biology to engineering and physics. However, solution strategies based on classical statistical techniques often fall short due to the large number of…
Accurate and reliable prediction of Photovoltaic (PV) power output is critical to electricity grid stability and power dispatching capabilities. However, Photovoltaic (PV) power generation is highly volatile and unstable due to different…
The data acquisition of solar radiation in a locality is essential for the development of efficient designs of systems, whose operation is based on solar energy. This paper presents a methodology to estimate solar irradiance using an…
Knowing the variability of total solar irradiance (TSI) at the top of the atmosphere is crucial for specifying solar influence to climate variability. Satellite measured TSI data are available only for the last 32 years. But there is an…
Accurate estimation of solar irradiance is essential for reliable modelling of solar photovoltaic (PV) power production. In Ireland's highly variable maritime climate, where ground-based measurement stations are sparsely distributed,…
The lack of long and reliable time series of solar spectral irradiance (SSI) measurements makes an accurate quantification of solar contributions to recent climate change difficult. Whereas earlier SSI observations and models provided a…
Aims: We investigate how well modeled solar irradiances agree with measurements from the SORCE satellite, both for total solar irradiance and broken down into spectral regions on timescales of several years. Methods: We use the SATIRE model…
Solar UV variability is extremely relevant for the stratospheric ozone. It has an impact on Earth's atmospheric structure and dynamics through radiative heating and ozone photochemistry. Our goal is to study the slope of the solar UV…