Related papers: Evolution and determinants of firm-level systemic …
Supply chain disruptions constitute an often underestimated risk for financial stability. As in financial networks, systemic risks in production networks arises when the local failure of one firm impacts the production of others and might…
Production networks constitute the backbone of every economic system. They are inherently fragile as several recent crises clearly highlighted. Estimating the system-wide consequences of local disruptions (systemic risk) requires detailed…
Crises like COVID-19 or the Japanese earthquake in 2011 exposed the fragility of corporate supply networks. The production of goods and services is a highly interdependent process and can be severely impacted by the default of critical…
National economies rest on networks of millions of customer-supplier relations. Some companies -- in the case of their default -- can trigger significant cascades of shock in the supply-chain network and are thus systemically risky. Up to…
The networked nature of supply chains makes them susceptible to systemic risk, where local firm failures can propagate through firm interdependencies that can lead to cascading supply chain disruptions. The systemic risk of supply chains…
Supply chain networks (SCN) form the structural backbone of any society. They constitute the societal metabolism that literally produces everything for everybody by coordinating practically every single person on the planet. SCNs are by no…
We study the disequilibrium dynamics of a stylised model of production networks in which firms use perishable and non-substitutable intermediate inputs, so that adverse idiosyncratic productivity shocks can trigger downstream shortages and…
Economic interdependencies have become increasingly present in globalized production, financial and trade systems. While establishing interdependencies among economic agents is crucial for the production of complex products, they may also…
This paper analyses the risk factors around investing in global supply chain infrastructure: the energy market, investor sentiment, and global shipping costs. It presents portfolio strategies associated with dynamic risks. A time-varying…
Production networks arise from supply and customer relations among firms. These systems are gaining growing attention as a consequence of disruptions due to natural or man-made disasters that happened in the last years, such as the Covid-19…
Since several years, the fragility of global supply chains (GSCs) is at historically high levels. In the same time, the landscape of hybrid threats is expanding; new forms of hybrid threats create different types of uncertainties. This…
Motivated by the recently experienced systemic shocks (the COVID-19 pandemic and the full-fledged Russia's war of aggression against Ukraine) - that have created new forms of uncertainties to our supplies - this paper explores the supply…
Risks threatening modern societies form an intricately interconnected network that often underlies crisis situations. Yet, little is known about how risk materializations in distinct domains influence each other. Here we present an approach…
Recent crises have shown that the knowledge of the structure of input-output networks at the firm level is crucial when studying economic resilience from the microscopic point of view of firms that rewire their connections under supply and…
In today's global economy, supply chain (SC) entities have become increasingly interconnected with demand and supply relationships due to the need for strategic outsourcing. Such interdependence among firms not only increases efficiency but…
The Covid-19 pandemic drastically emphasized the fragility of national and international supply networks (SNs),leading to significant supply shortages of essential goods for people, such as food and medical equipment. Severe disruptions…
Modern macroeconomic theories were unable to foresee the last Great Recession and could neither predict its prolonged duration nor the recovery rate. They are based on supply-demand equilibria that do not exist during recessionary shocks.…
Realistic credit risk assessment, the estimation of losses from counterparty's failure, is central for the financial stability. Credit risk models focus on the financial conditions of borrowers and only marginally consider other risks from…
With a steadily growing population and rapid advancements in technology, the global economy is increasing in size and complexity. This growth exacerbates global vulnerabilities and may lead to unforeseen consequences such as global…
Natural and anthropogenic disasters frequently affect both the supply and demand side of an economy. A striking recent example is the Covid-19 pandemic which has created severe disruptions to economic output in most countries. These direct…