Related papers: Multi-model Online Conformal Prediction with Graph…
This paper presents a new conformal method for generating simultaneous forecasting bands guaranteed to cover the entire path of a new random trajectory with sufficiently high probability. Prompted by the need for dependable uncertainty…
Conformal prediction (CP) can convert any model's output into prediction sets guaranteed to include the true label with any user-specified probability. However, same as the model itself, CP is vulnerable to adversarial test examples…
The expense of acquiring labels in large-scale statistical machine learning makes partially and weakly-labeled data attractive, though it is not always apparent how to leverage such data for model fitting or validation. We present a…
Bin packing is a classic optimization problem with a wide range of applications, from load balancing to supply chain management. In this work, we study the online variant of the problem, in which a sequence of items of various sizes must be…
Conformal prediction (CP) converts any model's output to prediction sets with a guarantee to cover the true label with (adjustable) high probability. Robust CP extends this guarantee to worst-case (adversarial) inputs. Existing baselines…
Image segmentation is a challenging task influenced by multiple sources of uncertainty, such as the data labeling process or the sampling of training data. In this paper we focus on binary segmentation and address these challenges using…
Given a sequence of observable variables $\{(x_1, y_1), \ldots, (x_n, y_n)\}$, the conformal prediction method estimates a confidence set for $y_{n+1}$ given $x_{n+1}$ that is valid for any finite sample size by merely assuming that the…
Conformal prediction offers a distribution-free framework for constructing prediction sets with finite-sample coverage. Yet, efficiently leveraging multiple conformity scores to reduce prediction set size remains a major open challenge.…
Based on the framework of Conformal Prediction (CP), we study the online construction of confidence sets given a black-box machine learning model. By converting the target confidence levels into quantile levels, the problem can be reduced…
Traditional conformal prediction methods construct prediction sets such that the true label falls within the set with a user-specified coverage level. However, poorly chosen coverage levels can result in uninformative predictions, either…
Conformal prediction is a framework for providing prediction intervals with distribution-free validity, guaranteeing predictive coverage for data drawn from any distribution. Its two main variants are full conformal prediction and split…
Conformal prediction (CP) provides model-agnostic uncertainty quantification with guaranteed coverage, but conventional methods often produce overly conservative uncertainty sets, especially in multi-dimensional settings. This limitation…
Conformal prediction (CP) generates a set of predictions for a given test sample such that the prediction set almost always contains the true label (e.g., 99.5\% of the time). CP provides comprehensive predictions on possible labels of a…
Conformal prediction is a simple and powerful tool that can quantify uncertainty without any distributional assumptions. Many existing methods only address the average coverage guarantee, which is not ideal compared to the stronger…
Existing online multi-label classification works cannot well handle the online label thresholding problem and lack the regret analysis for their online algorithms. This paper proposes a novel framework of adaptive label thresholding…
Conformal prediction is a statistical tool for producing prediction regions for machine learning models that are valid with high probability. A key component of conformal prediction algorithms is a \emph{non-conformity score function} that…
Accurate uncertainty estimates are important in sequential model-based decision-making tasks such as Bayesian optimization. However, these estimates can be imperfect if the data violates assumptions made by the model (e.g., Gaussianity).…
This paper addresses source component shift adaptation, aiming to update predictions adapting to source component shifts for incoming data streams based on past training data. Existing online learning methods often fail to utilize recurring…
We consider conformal prediction for multivariate data and focus on hierarchical data, where some components are linear combinations of others. Intuitively, the hierarchical structure can be leveraged to reduce the size of prediction…
We apply split conformal prediction techniques to regression problems with circular responses by introducing a suitable conformity score, leading to prediction sets with adaptive arc length and finite-sample coverage guarantees for any…