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We present a distributionally robust PAC-Bayesian framework for certifying the performance of learning-based finite-horizon controllers. While existing PAC-Bayes control literature typically assumes bounded losses and matching training and…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-04-14 Domagoj Herceg , Duarte Antunes

This paper studies Distributionally Robust Optimization (DRO), a fundamental framework for enhancing the robustness and generalization of statistical learning and optimization. An effective ambiguity set for DRO must involve distributions…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-10-28 Jiaqi Wen , Jianyi Yang

In this article we consider the ergodic risk-sensitive control problem for a large class of multidimensional controlled diffusions on the whole space. We study the minimization and maximization problems under either a blanket stability…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2021-01-01 Ari Arapostathis , Anup Biswas , Somnath Pradhan

In this paper we introduce objective proper prior distributions for hypothesis testing and model selection based on measures of divergence between the competing models; we call them divergence based (DB) priors. DB priors have simple forms…

Methodology · Statistics 2009-02-27 M. J. Bayarri , G. García-Donato

Distributionally Robust Optimal Control (DROC) is a framework that enables robust control in a stochastic setting where the true disturbance distribution is unknown. Traditional DROC approaches require given ambiguity sets and KL divergence…

Robotics · Computer Science 2025-10-03 Rui Liu , Guangyao Shi , Pratap Tokekar

Model Updating is frequently used in Structural Health Monitoring to determine structures' operating conditions and whether maintenance is required. Data collected by sensors are used to update the values of some initially unknown…

Computation · Statistics 2024-01-23 Felipe Igea , Alice Cicirello

Clustering multivariate binary data is of interest in many scientific fields, including ecology, biomedicine, and social policy. Beyond heuristic clustering algorithms, such data can be modelled using multivariate Bernoulli mixture models.…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-04-24 Luisa Ferrari , Maria Franco Villoria , Garritt L. Page , Alex Laini

Control algorithms such as model predictive control (MPC) and state estimators rely on a number of different parameters. The performance of the closed loop usually depends on the correct setting of these parameters. Tuning is often done…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2020-10-15 David Stenger , Muzaffer Ay , Dirk Abel

This paper addresses the issue of inversion in cases where (1) the observation system is modeled by a linear transformation and additive noise, (2) the problem is ill-posed and regularization is introduced in a Bayesian framework by an a…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-02-12 Jean-François Giovannelli

Model predictive control (MPC) is an effective approach to control multivariable dynamic systems with constraints. Most real dynamic models are however affected by plant-model mismatch and process uncertainties, which can lead to…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2022-11-29 Zhengang Zhong , Ehecatl Antonio del Rio-Chanona , Panagiotis Petsagkourakis

In this work, we investigate the use of Besov priors in the context of Bayesian inverse problems. The solution to Bayesian inverse problems is the posterior distribution which naturally enables us to interpret the uncertainties. Besov…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2025-06-23 Andreas Horst , Babak Maboudi Afkham , Yiqiu Dong , Jakob Lemvig

Safe operation of autonomous systems requires robustness to both model uncertainty and uncertainty in the environment. We propose DRP-$\mathcal{L}_1$AC, a hierarchical framework for stochastic nonlinear systems that integrates…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2026-04-24 Astghik Hakobyan , Amaras Nazarians , Aditya Gahlawat , Naira Hovakimyan , Ilya Kolmanovsky

Control of nonlinear distributed parameter systems (DPS) under uncertainty is a meaningful task for many industrial processes. However, both intrinsic uncertainty and high dimensionality of DPS require intensive computations, while…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2024-10-17 Min Tao , Ioannis Zacharopoulos , Constantinos Theodoropoulos

The ranking problem is to order a collection of units by some unobserved parameter, based on observations from the associated distribution. This problem arises naturally in a number of contexts, such as business, where we may want to rank…

Methodology · Statistics 2016-10-28 Toby Kenney , Hao He , Hong Gu

We present a novel data-driven distributionally robust Model Predictive Control formulation for unknown discrete-time linear time-invariant systems affected by unknown and possibly unbounded additive uncertainties. We use off-line collected…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2022-09-20 Francesco Micheli , Tyler Summers , John Lygeros

In this paper we study model reduction of linear and bilinear quadratic stochastic control problems with parameter uncertainties. Specifically, we consider slow-fast systems with unknown diffusion coefficient and study the convergence of…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2021-02-10 Hafida Bouanani , Carsten Hartmann , Omar Kebiri

In this paper we show that there is a link between approximate Bayesian methods and prior robustness. We show that what is typically recognized as an approximation to the likelihood, either due to the simulated data as in the Approximate…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-04-03 Chaitanya Joshi , Fabrizio Ruggeri

Robust Markov Decision Processes (RMDPs) intend to ensure robustness with respect to changing or adversarial system behavior. In this framework, transitions are modeled as arbitrary elements of a known and properly structured uncertainty…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-07-25 Esther Derman , Daniel Mankowitz , Timothy Mann , Shie Mannor

Robust Model Predictive Control (MPC) for nonlinear systems is a problem that poses significant challenges as highlighted by the diversity of approaches proposed in the last decades. Often compromises with respect to computational load,…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2024-02-21 Daniel D. Leister , Justin P. Koeln

This paper considers the problem of designing time-dependent, real-time control policies for controllable nonlinear diffusion processes, with the goal of obtaining maximally-informative observations about parameters of interest. More…

Methodology · Statistics 2014-10-16 Giles Hooker , Kevin K. Lin , Bruce Rogers