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Driven by applications in telecommunication networks, we explore the simulation task of estimating rare event probabilities for tandem queues in their steady state. Existing literature has recognized that importance sampling methods can be…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-04-22 Ruoning Zhao , Xinyun Chen

Multiple-try Metropolis (MTM) is a popular Markov chain Monte Carlo method with the appealing feature of being amenable to parallel computing. At each iteration, it samples several candidates for the next state of the Markov chain and…

Computation · Statistics 2023-08-25 Philippe Gagnon , Florian Maire , Giacomo Zanella

Parallel tempering (PT) methods are a popular class of Markov chain Monte Carlo schemes used to sample complex high-dimensional probability distributions. They rely on a collection of $N$ interacting auxiliary chains targeting tempered…

Computation · Statistics 2021-07-28 Saifuddin Syed , Alexandre Bouchard-Côté , George Deligiannidis , Arnaud Doucet

In solving simulation-based stochastic root-finding or optimization problems that involve rare events, such as in extreme quantile estimation, running crude Monte Carlo can be prohibitively inefficient. To address this issue, importance…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-02-23 Shengyi He , Guangxin Jiang , Henry Lam , Michael C. Fu

In this work, we propose a first-order sampling method called the Metropolis-adjusted Preconditioned Langevin Algorithm for approximate sampling from a target distribution whose support is a proper convex subset of $\mathbb{R}^{d}$. Our…

Computation · Statistics 2025-02-27 Vishwak Srinivasan , Andre Wibisono , Ashia Wilson

Importance sampling is a rare event simulation technique used in Monte Carlo simulations to bias the sampling distribution towards the rare event of interest. By assigning appropriate weights to sampled points, importance sampling allows…

Establishing central limit theorems (CLTs) for ergodic averages of Markov chains is a fundamental problem in probability and its applications. Since the seminal work~\cite{MR834478}, a vast literature has emerged on the sufficient…

Probability · Mathematics 2025-12-23 Miha Brešar , Aleksandar Mijatović , Gareth Roberts

We introduce a new Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampler called the Markov Interacting Importance Sampler (MIIS). The MIIS sampler uses conditional importance sampling (IS) approximations to jointly sample the current state of the Markov…

Computation · Statistics 2015-06-26 Eduardo F. Mendes , Marcel Scharth , Robert Kohn

We present here two irreversible Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithms for general discrete state systems, one of the algorithms is based on the random-scan Gibbs sampler for discrete states and the other on its improved version, the…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2020-05-08 Fahim Faizi , George Deligiannidis , Edina Rosta

Bayesian methods and their implementations by means of sophisticated Monte Carlo techniques have become very popular in signal processing over the last years. Importance Sampling (IS) is a well-known Monte Carlo technique that approximates…

Computation · Statistics 2022-01-21 L. Martino , V. Elvira , G. Camps-Valls

Scaling of proposals for Metropolis algorithms is an important practical problem in MCMC implementation. Criteria for scaling based on empirical acceptance rates of algorithms have been found to work consistently well across a broad range…

Computation · Statistics 2009-09-07 Chris Sherlock , Gareth Roberts

General multivariate distributions are notoriously expensive to sample from, particularly the high-dimensional posterior distributions in PDE-constrained inverse problems. This paper develops a sampler for arbitrary continuous multivariate…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2019-07-05 Sergey Dolgov , Karim Anaya-Izquierdo , Colin Fox , Robert Scheichl

We propose an adaptive Metropolis-Hastings algorithm in which sampled data are used to update the proposal distribution. We use the samples found by the algorithm at a particular step to form the information-theoretically optimal mean-field…

Other Condensed Matter · Physics 2007-05-23 David H. Wolpert , Chiu Fan Lee

Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms are routinely used to draw samples from distributions with intractable normalization constants. However, standard MCMC algorithms do not apply to doubly-intractable distributions in which there are…

Computation · Statistics 2012-07-02 Iain Murray , Zoubin Ghahramani , David MacKay

Estimation in the deformable template model is a big challenge in image analysis. The issue is to estimate an atlas of a population. This atlas contains a template and the corresponding geometrical variability of the observed shapes. The…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2013-09-09 Stéphanie Allassonniere , Estelle Kuhn

Given a sequence of observations from a discrete-time, finite-state hidden Markov model, we would like to estimate the sampling distribution of a statistic. The bootstrap method is employed to approximate the confidence regions of a…

Computation · Statistics 2009-09-29 Cheng-Der Fuh , Inchi Hu

Multimodal structures in the sampling density (e.g. two competing phases) can be a serious problem for traditional Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC), because correct sampling of the different structures can only be guaranteed for infinite…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2009-11-11 M. Daghofer , M. Konegger , H. G. Evertz , W. von der Linden

Pseudo-marginal Markov chain Monte Carlo methods for sampling from intractable distributions have gained recent interest and have been theoretically studied in considerable depth. Their main appeal is that they are exact, in the sense that…

Computation · Statistics 2015-03-25 Felipe J. Medina-Aguayo , Anthony Lee , Gareth O. Roberts

Importance sampling is a widely used technique to reduce the variance of a Monte Carlo estimator by an appropriate change of measure. In this work, we study importance sam- pling in the framework of diffusion process and consider the change…

Probability · Mathematics 2018-03-28 Carsten Hartmann , Christof Schütte , Marcus Weber , Wei Zhang

Importance sampling has been known as a powerful tool to reduce the variance of Monte Carlo estimator for rare event simulation. Based on the criterion of minimizing the variance of Monte Carlo estimator within a parametric family, we…

Methodology · Statistics 2013-02-11 Cheng-Der Fuh , Huei-Wen Teng , Ren-Her Wang