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Cardiovascular disease (CVD) cohorts collect data longitudinally to study the association between CVD risk factors and event times. An important area of scientific research is to better understand what features of CVD risk factor…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-12-03 Mirajul Islam , Michael J. Daniels , Zeynab Aghabazaz , Juned Siddique

Cardiovascular diseases (CVD), including atherosclerosis CVD (ASCVD), are multifactorial diseases that present a major economic and social burden worldwide. Tremendous efforts have been made to understand traditional risk factors for ASCVD,…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-05-26 Thierry Chekouo , Sandra E. Safo

Causal mediation analysis of observational data is an important tool for investigating the potential causal effects of medications on disease-related risk factors, and on time-to-death (or disease progression) through these risk factors.…

We address causal estimation in semi-competing risks settings, where a non-terminal event may be precluded by one or more terminal events. We define a principal-stratification causal estimand for treatment effects on the non-terminal event,…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-06-27 Karina Gelis-Cadena , Michael Daniels , Juned Siddique

The association between visit-to-visit systolic blood pressure variability and cardiovascular events has recently received a lot of attention in the cardiovascular literature. But blood pressure variability is usually estimated on a…

Applications · Statistics 2019-01-25 Jessica K. Barrett , Raphael Huille , Richard Parker , Yuichiro Yano , Michael Griswold

We introduce a novel Bayesian approach for jointly modeling longitudinal cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk factor trajectories, medication use, and time-to-events. Our methodology incorporates longitudinal risk factor trajectories into the…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-03-25 Zeynab Aghabazaz , Michael J Daniels , Donald M Lloyd-Jones , Juned Siddique

Models for predicting the risk of cardiovascular events based on individual patient characteristics are important tools for managing patient care. Most current and commonly used risk prediction models have been built from carefully selected…

This paper introduces aggregate Bayesian Causal Forests (aBCF), a new Bayesian model for causal inference using aggregated data. Aggregated data are common in policy evaluations where we observe individuals such as students, but…

We introduce a Bayesian nonparametric inference approach for aggregate adverse event (AE) monitoring across studies. The proposed model seamlessly integrates external data from historical trials to define a relevant background rate and…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-09-10 Shijie Yuan , Kevin Roberts , Noirrit Kiran Chandra , Yuan Ji , Peter Müller

We introduce a statistical framework for combining data from multiple large longitudinal cardiovascular cohorts to enable the study of long-term cardiovascular health starting in early adulthood. Using data from seven cohorts belonging to…

Observational cohort data is an important source of information for understanding the causal effects of treatments on survival and the degree to which these effects are mediated through changes in disease-related risk factors. However,…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-05-20 Saurabh Bhandari , Michael J. Daniels , Juned Siddique

There have been significant efforts devoted to solving the longevity risk given that a continuous growth in population ageing has become a severe issue for many developed countries over the past few decades. The Cairns-Blake-Dowd (CBD)…

Applications · Statistics 2024-12-30 Ka Kin Lam , Bo Wang

Chain Event Graphs (CEGs) are a widely applicable class of probabilistic graphical model that can represent context-specific independence statements and asymmetric unfoldings of events in an easily interpretable way. Existing model…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-06-20 Peter Strong , Jim Q Smith

We study the problem of detecting adverse drug events in electronic healthcare records. The challenge in this work is to aggregate heterogeneous data types involving diagnosis codes, drug codes, as well as lab measurements. An earlier…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-07-16 Maria Bampa , Panagiotis Papapetrou

With the increased availability of large databases of electronic health records (EHRs) comes the chance of enhancing health risks screening. Most post-marketing detections of adverse drug reaction (ADR) rely on physicians' spontaneous…

Applications · Statistics 2018-01-29 Maryan Morel , Emmanuel Bacry , Stéphane Gaïffas , Agathe Guilloux , Fanny Leroy

The use of International Classification of Diseases (ICD) codes in healthcare presents a challenge in selecting relevant codes as features for machine learning models due to this system's large number of codes. In this study, we compared…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-10-29 Peyman Ghasemi , Joon Lee

Observational studies of recurrent event rates are common in biomedical statistics. Broadly, the goal is to estimate differences in event rates under two treatments within a defined target population over a specified followup window.…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-11-13 Arman Oganisian , Anthony Girard , Jon A. Steingrimsson , Patience Moyo

As clinical data are becoming increasingly available, machine learning methods have been employed to extract knowledge from them and predict clinical events. While promising, approaches suffer from at least two main issues: low availability…

Competing risk models are survival models with several events of interest acting in competition and whose occurrence is only observed for the event that occurs first in time. This paper presents a Bayesian approach to these models in which…

Subgroup analysis is a frequently used tool for evaluating heterogeneity of treatment effect and heterogeneity in treatment harm across observed baseline patient characteristics. While treatment efficacy and adverse event measures are often…

Applications · Statistics 2018-08-14 Nicholas C. Henderson , Ravi Varadhan
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