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Bayesian models based on the Dirichlet process and other stick-breaking priors have been proposed as core ingredients for clustering, topic modeling, and other unsupervised learning tasks. Prior specification is, however, relatively…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-10-27 Ryan Giordano , Runjing Liu , Michael I. Jordan , Tamara Broderick

Statistical agencies and other institutions collect data under the promise to protect the confidentiality of respondents. When releasing microdata samples, the risk that records can be identified must be assessed. To this aim, a widely…

Applications · Statistics 2015-06-03 Cinzia Carota , Maurizio Filippone , Roberto Leombruni , Silvia Polettini

Principal stratification analysis evaluates how causal effects of a treatment on a primary outcome vary across strata of units defined by their treatment effect on some intermediate quantity. This endeavor is substantially challenged when…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-03-21 Chanmin Kim , Corwin Zigler

We propose a Bayesian test of normality for univariate or multivariate data against alternative nonparametric models characterized by Dirichlet process mixture distributions. The alternative models are based on the principles of embedding…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2023-04-12 Surya T. Tokdar , Ryan Martin

We propose a restricted win probability estimand for comparing treatments in a randomized trial with a time-to-event outcome. We also propose Bayesian estimators for this summary measure as well as the unrestricted win probability. Bayesian…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-11-06 Michelle Leeberg , Xianghua Luo , Thomas A. Murray

Selection bias arises when the probability that an observation enters a dataset depends on variables related to the quantities of interest, leading to systematic distortions in estimation and uncertainty quantification. For example, in…

Edge-exchangeable probabilistic network models generate edges as an i.i.d.~sequence from a discrete measure, providing a simple means for statistical inference of latent network properties. The measure is often constructed using the…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2021-09-15 Xinglong Li , Trevor Campbell

We introduce a Bayesian nonparametric inference approach for aggregate adverse event (AE) monitoring across studies. The proposed model seamlessly integrates external data from historical trials to define a relevant background rate and…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-09-10 Shijie Yuan , Kevin Roberts , Noirrit Kiran Chandra , Yuan Ji , Peter Müller

Conventional survival analysis approaches estimate risk scores or individualized time-to-event distributions conditioned on covariates. In practice, there is often great population-level phenotypic heterogeneity, resulting from (unknown)…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-03-03 Paidamoyo Chapfuwa , Chunyuan Li , Nikhil Mehta , Lawrence Carin , Ricardo Henao

Bayesian models based on the Dirichlet process and other stick-breaking priors have been proposed as core ingredients for clustering, topic modeling, and other unsupervised learning tasks. However, due to the flexibility of these models,…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-01-27 Ryan Giordano , Runjing Liu , Michael I. Jordan , Tamara Broderick

Principal stratification (PS) is a commonly used approach for understanding the mechanisms through which a treatment affects an outcome. The goal of this work is to extend the PS framework to studies with continuous treatments, which…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-05-20 Joseph Antonelli , Minxuan Wu , Fabrizia Mealli , Brenden Beck , Alessandra Mattei

In recent years, a wide range of mortality models has been proposed to address the diverse factors influencing mortality rates, which has highlighted the need to perform model selection. Traditional mortality model selection methods, such…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-10-22 Alex Diana , Jackie Wong Siaw Tze , Aniketh Pittea

We propose autoregressive Bayesian semi-parametric models for waiting times between recurrent events. The aim is two-fold: inference on the effect of possibly time-varying covariates on the gap times and clustering of individuals based on…

Applications · Statistics 2016-07-28 Marta Tallarita , Maria De Iorio , Alessandra Guglielmi , James Malone-Lee

Parametric stochastic simulators are ubiquitous in science, often featuring high-dimensional input parameters and/or an intractable likelihood. Performing Bayesian parameter inference in this context can be challenging. We present a neural…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2021-10-27 Benjamin Kurt Miller , Alex Cole , Patrick Forré , Gilles Louppe , Christoph Weniger

Post-treatment confounding is a common problem in causal inference, including special cases of noncompliance, truncation by death, surrogate endpoint, etc. Principal stratification (Frangakis and Rubin 2002) is a general framework for…

Computation · Statistics 2023-04-07 Bo Liu , Fan Li

Randomized benchmarking (RB) protocols are standard tools for characterizing quantum devices. Prior analyses of RB protocols have not provided a complete method for analyzing realistic data, resulting in a variety of ad-hoc methods. The…

Quantum Physics · Physics 2018-02-02 Ian Hincks , Joel J. Wallman , Chris Ferrie , Chris Granade , David G. Cory

This article tackles the old problem of prediction via a nonparametric transformation model (NTM) in a new Bayesian way. Estimation of NTMs is known challenging due to model unidentifiability though appealing because of its robust…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-02-08 Chong Zhong , Jin Yang , Junshan Shen , Catherine Liu , Zhaohai Li

Completely random measures (CRMs) and their normalizations are a rich source of Bayesian nonparametric priors. Examples include the beta, gamma, and Dirichlet processes. In this paper we detail two major classes of sequential CRM…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2020-05-11 Trevor Campbell , Jonathan H. Huggins , Jonathan P. How , Tamara Broderick

In some randomized clinical trials, patients may die before the measurements of their outcomes. Even though randomization generates comparable treatment and control groups, the remaining survivors often differ significantly in background…

Applications · Statistics 2018-03-07 Fan Yang , Peng Ding

This article introduces a novel framework for nonparametric priors on real-valued random vectors, which can be viewed as a multivariate generalization of neutral-to-the right priors. It is based on randomizing the exponent measure of a…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-05-13 Florian Brück