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We consider the problem of estimating rare event probabilities, focusing on systems whose evolution is governed by differential equations with uncertain input parameters. If the system dynamics is expensive to compute, standard sampling…

Computation · Statistics 2019-11-05 Siddhant Wahal , George Biros

The stochastic gravitational wave background from compact binary coalescences is expected to be the first detectable stochastic signal via cross-correlation searches with terrestrial detectors. It encodes the cumulative merger history of…

General Relativity and Quantum Cosmology · Physics 2026-02-17 Michael Ebersold , Tania Regimbau

Monte Carlo methods are essential tools for Bayesian inference. Gibbs sampling is a well-known Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm, extensively used in signal processing, machine learning, and statistics, employed to draw samples from…

Computation · Statistics 2017-12-21 Luca Martino , Victor Elvira , Gustau Camps-Valls

Importance sampling is one of the most widely used variance reduction strategies in Monte Carlo rendering. In this paper, we propose a novel importance sampling technique that uses a neural network to learn how to sample from a desired…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-03-25 Quan Zheng , Matthias Zwicker

Partial Bayesian neural networks (pBNNs) have been shown to perform competitively with fully Bayesian neural networks while only having a subset of the parameters be stochastic. Using sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) samplers as the inference…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-01-30 Andrew Millard , Joshua Murphy , Simon Maskell , Zheng Zhao

The coming years of gravitational wave astrophysics promises thousands of new detections, which can unlock fundamental scientific insights if the information in each observation can be properly synthesized into a coherent picture.…

High Energy Astrophysical Phenomena · Physics 2025-09-10 Jack Heinzel , Salvatore Vitale

In the realm of statistical learning, the increasing volume of accessible data and increasing model complexity necessitate robust methodologies. This paper explores two branches of robust Bayesian methods in response to this trend. The…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-12-02 Masahiro Tanaka

We present a new method for conducting Monte Carlo inference in graphical models which combines explicit search with generalized importance sampling. The idea is to reduce the variance of importance sampling by searching for significant…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2013-01-18 Dale Schuurmans , Finnegan Southey

The emission of continuous gravitational waves (CWs), with duration much longer than the typical data taking runs, is expected from several sources, notably spinning neutron stars, asymmetric with respect to their rotation axis and more…

General Relativity and Quantum Cosmology · Physics 2023-11-13 S. D'Antonio , C. Palomba , P. Astone , S. Dall'Osso , S. Dal Pra , S. Frasca , P. Leaci , F. Muciaccia , O. J. Piccinni , L. Pierini , M. Serra

Recently, Stochastic Gradient Markov Chain Monte Carlo (SG-MCMC) methods have been proposed for scaling up Monte Carlo computations to large data problems. Whilst these approaches have proven useful in many applications, vanilla SG-MCMC…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2016-12-13 Umut Şimşekli , Roland Badeau , A. Taylan Cemgil , Gaël Richard

Markov chain Monte Carlo methods have become standard tools in statistics to sample from complex probability measures. Many available techniques rely on discrete-time reversible Markov chains whose transition kernels build up over the…

Methodology · Statistics 2017-02-21 Alexandre Bouchard-Côté , Sebastian J. Vollmer , Arnaud Doucet

We present a Markov-chain Monte-Carlo (MCMC) technique to study the source parameters of gravitational-wave signals from the inspirals of stellar-mass compact binaries detected with ground-based gravitational-wave detectors such as LIGO and…

General Relativity and Quantum Cosmology · Physics 2009-11-04 Marc van der Sluys , Vivien Raymond , Ilya Mandel , Christian Roever , Nelson Christensen , Vicky Kalogera , Renate Meyer , Alberto Vecchio

We present a machine learning approach using normalising flows for inferring cosmological parameters from gravitational wave events. Our methodology is general to any type of compact binary coalescence event and cosmological model and…

General Relativity and Quantum Cosmology · Physics 2023-10-26 Federico Stachurski , Christopher Messenger , Martin Hendry

This paper presents a fully non-Gaussian version of the Hamiltonian Monte Carlo (HMC) sampling filter. The Gaussian prior assumption in the original HMC filter is relaxed. Specifically, a clustering step is introduced after the forecast…

Computation · Statistics 2016-08-19 Ahmed Attia , Azam Moosavi , Adrian Sandu

Many inference problems involve inferring the number $N$ of components in some region, along with their properties $\{\mathbf{x}_i\}_{i=1}^N$, from a dataset $\mathcal{D}$. A common statistical example is finite mixture modelling. In the…

Computation · Statistics 2015-01-15 Brendon J. Brewer

Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms are generally regarded as the gold standard technique for Bayesian inference. They are theoretically well-understood and conceptually simple to apply in practice. The drawback of MCMC is that in…

Computation · Statistics 2019-07-17 Christopher Nemeth , Paul Fearnhead

We present a deep neural network (DNN) accelerated Hamiltonian Monte Carlo (HMC) algorithm called DeepHMC for the inference of binary neutron star systems. The HMC is a non-random walk sampler that uses background gradient information to…

General Relativity and Quantum Cosmology · Physics 2025-05-06 Jules Perret , Marc Aréne , Edward K. Porter

We present a variation of a quantum algorithm for the machine learning task of classification with graph-structured data. The algorithm implements a feature extraction strategy that is based on Gaussian boson sampling (GBS) a near term…

Quantum Physics · Physics 2026-05-13 Amanuel Anteneh , Olivier Pfister

Rapid and robust parameter estimation of gravitational-wave sources is a key component of modern multi-messenger astronomy. We present a novel and straightforward method for rapid parameter estimation of gravitational-wave sources that uses…

Instrumentation and Methods for Astrophysics · Physics 2025-07-31 Alexander Harvey Nitz

The matched filtering paradigm is the mainstay of gravitational wave (GW) searches from astrophysical coalescing compact binaries. The compact binary coalescence (CBC) search pipelines perform the matched filter between the GW detector's…

General Relativity and Quantum Cosmology · Physics 2024-06-19 Chetan Verma , Amit Reza , Dilip Krishnaswamy , Sarah Caudill , Gurudatt Gaur
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