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Many methods of estimating causal models do not provide estimates of confidence in the resulting model. In this work, a metric is proposed for validating the output of a causal model fit; the robustness of the model structure with resampled…

Foundation models for structured time series data must contend with a fundamental challenge: observations often conflate the true underlying physical phenomena with systematic distortions introduced by measurement instruments. This…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-07-09 Jeroen Audenaert , Daniel Muthukrishna , Paul F. Gregory , David W. Hogg , V. Ashley Villar

Structural causal models are the basic modelling unit in Pearl's causal theory; in principle they allow us to solve counterfactuals, which are at the top rung of the ladder of causation. But they often contain latent variables that limit…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2021-11-23 Marco Zaffalon , Alessandro Antonucci , Rafael Cabañas

Structural failure time models are causal models for estimating the effect of time-varying treatments on a survival outcome. G-estimation and artificial censoring have been proposed to estimate the model parameters in the presence of…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-02-19 Shu Yang , Karen Pieper , Frank Cools

In this paper we review an approach to estimating the causal effect of a time-varying treatment on time to some event of interest. This approach is designed for the situation where the treatment may have been repeatedly adapted to patient…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2007-06-13 J. J. Lok , R. D. Gill , A. W. van der Vaart , J. M. Robins

It has been recently observed that synthetic materials subjected to an external elastic stress give rise to scaling phenomena in the acoustic emission signal. Motivated by this experimental finding we develop a mesoscopic model in order to…

Materials Science · Physics 2008-02-03 Stefano Zapperi , Alessandro Vespignani , H. Eugene Stanley

Causal analyses of longitudinal data generally assume that the qualitative causal structure relating variables remains invariant over time. In structured systems that transition between qualitatively different states in discrete time steps,…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-11-11 Ranjani Srinivasan , Jaron Lee , Rohit Bhattacharya , Narges Ahmidi , Ilya Shpitser

Accurate prediction of dynamical response of structural system depends on the correct modeling of that system. However, modeling becomes increasingly challenging when there are many candidate models available to describe the system…

Applications · Statistics 2025-10-06 Subhayan De , Tianhao Yu , Patrick T. Brewick , Erik A. Johnson , Steven F. Wojtkiewicz

The validity OF a causal model can be tested ONLY IF the model imposes constraints ON the probability distribution that governs the generated data. IN the presence OF unmeasured variables, causal models may impose two types OF constraints :…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2013-01-07 Jin Tian , Judea Pearl

Psychosocial constructs can only be assessed indirectly, and measures are typically formed by a combination of indicators that are thought to relate to the construct. Reflective and formative measurement models offer different…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-02-24 Tyler J. VanderWeele

Counterfactual explanations (CEs) are a powerful means for understanding how decisions made by algorithms can be changed. Researchers have proposed a number of desiderata that CEs should meet to be practically useful, such as requiring…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-09-26 Marco Virgolin , Saverio Fracaros

Energy demand prediction is critical for grid operators, industrial energy consumers, and service providers. Energy demand is influenced by multiple factors, including weather conditions (e.g. temperature, humidity, wind speed, solar…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2025-12-18 Chutian Ma , Grigorii Pomazkin , Giacinto Paolo Saggese , Paul Smith

Structural change detection problems are often encountered in analytics and econometrics, where the performance of a model can be significantly affected by unforeseen changes in the underlying relationships. Although these problems have a…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-05-29 Pekka Malo , Lauri Viitasaari , Olga Gorskikh , Pauliina Ilmonen

The past decade has seen an increasing body of literature devoted to the estimation of causal effects in network-dependent data. However, the validity of many classical statistical methods in such data is often questioned. There is an…

Computation · Statistics 2017-05-31 Oleg Sofrygin , Romain Neugebauer , Mark J. van der Laan

Traditional member-based two-step design approaches included in current structural codes for steel structures, as well as more recent system-based direct-design alternatives, require building rigorous structural reliability frameworks for…

Materials Science · Physics 2021-10-27 Itsaso Arrayago , Kim J. R. Rasmussen , Esther Real

We study causal inference for time-to-event outcomes under right censoring in the presence of unmeasured confounding. Focusing on structural accelerated failure time models, we develop an identification and inference framework that exploits…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-05-29 Qiushi Bu , Wen Su , Xinyu Zhang , Xingqiu Zhao , Zhonghua Liu

This paper addresses the problem of identifying and estimating the causal effect of a treatment in the presence of unmeasured confounding and various types of right-censoring. Examples of these censoring mechanisms are administrative…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-03-19 Ilias Willems , Sara Rutten , Gilles Crommen , Ingrid Van Keilegom

It is generally impossible to separately measure the resistance of the functional component (i.e., the intrinsic device materials) and the parasitic component (i.e., terminals, interfaces and serial loads) in a two-terminal device. Yet such…

Mesoscale and Nanoscale Physics · Physics 2017-09-13 Yang Lu , I-Wei Chen

A fundamental challenge in causal inference with observational data is correct specification of a causal model. When there is model uncertainty, analysts may seek to use estimates from multiple candidate models that rely on distinct, and…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-03-03 Rohit Bhattacharya , Ina Ocelli , Ted Westling

The influence of electronic structure evolution upon pressure on the temperature dependencies of electrical resistivity of pure Np, Pu, Am, and Cm metals have been investigated within coherent potential approximation (CPA) for many-bands…

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