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We study identification and estimation of causal effects in settings with panel data. Traditionally researchers follow model-based identification strategies relying on assumptions governing the relation between the potential outcomes and…

Econometrics · Economics 2022-02-18 Dmitry Arkhangelsky , Guido W. Imbens

We propose a method to detect model misspecifications in nonlinear causal additive and potentially heteroscedastic noise models. We aim to identify predictor variables for which we can infer the causal effect even in cases of such…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-03-28 Christoph Schultheiss , Peter Bühlmann

Inferring causal effects of continuous-valued treatments from observational data is a crucial task promising to better inform policy- and decision-makers. A critical assumption needed to identify these effects is that all confounding…

The interpretability of prediction mechanisms with respect to the underlying prediction problem is often unclear. While several studies have focused on developing prediction models with meaningful parameters, the causal relationships…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2017-09-05 Patrick Blöbaum , Shohei Shimizu

Causal discovery aims to learn causal relationships between variables from targeted data, making it a fundamental task in machine learning. However, causal discovery algorithms often rely on unverifiable causal assumptions, which are…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-10-15 Huiyang Yi , Yanyan He , Duxin Chen , Mingyu Kang , He Wang , Wenwu Yu

Missing exposure information is a very common feature of many observational studies. Here we study identifiability and efficient estimation of causal effects on vector outcomes, in such cases where treatment is unconfounded but partially…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-02-04 Edward H. Kennedy

When making treatment selection decisions, it is essential to include a causal effect estimation analysis to compare potential outcomes under different treatments or controls, assisting in optimal selection. However, merely estimating…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-10-08 Sherly Alfonso-Sánchez , Kristina P. Sendova , Cristián Bravo

This paper considers conducting inference about the effect of a treatment (or exposure) on an outcome of interest. In the ideal setting where treatment is assigned randomly, under certain assumptions the treatment effect is identifiable…

Methodology · Statistics 2015-03-06 Amy Richardson , Michael G. Hudgens , Peter B. Gilbert , Jason P. Fine

The use of machine learning (ML) in high-stakes societal decisions has encouraged the consideration of fairness throughout the ML lifecycle. Although data integration is one of the primary steps to generate high quality training data, most…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-04-01 Sainyam Galhotra , Karthikeyan Shanmugam , Prasanna Sattigeri , Kush R. Varshney

Mendelian randomization (MR) has become an essential tool for causal inference in biomedical and public health research. By using genetic variants as instrumental variables, MR helps address unmeasured confounding and reverse causation,…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-11-04 Minhao Yao , Anqi Wang , Xihao Li , Zhonghua Liu

Recently, there has been great interest in estimating the conditional average treatment effect using flexible machine learning methods. However, in practice, investigators often have working hypotheses about effect heterogeneity across…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-09-13 Chan Park , Hyunseung Kang

Causal effect estimation is a critical task in statistical learning that aims to find the causal effect on subjects by identifying causal links between a number of predictor (or, explanatory) variables and the outcome of a treatment. In a…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-11-26 Tathagata Basu , Matthias C. M. Troffaes

The possibility of unmeasured confounding is one of the main limitations for causal inference from observational studies. There are different methods for (partially) empirically assessing the plausibility of unconfoundedness. However, most…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-10-28 Fernando Pires Hartwig , Kate Tilling , George Davey Smith

Cohort studies employ pairwise measures of association to quantify dependencies among conditions and exposures. To reliably use these measures to draw conclusions about the underlying association strengths requires that the measures be…

Quantitative Methods · Quantitative Biology 2017-05-30 Venkateshan Kannan , Kristina Alexandersson , Jesper Tegner

Due to the challenge posed by multi-source and heterogeneous data collected from diverse environments, causal relationships among features can exhibit variations influenced by different time spans, regions, or strategies. This diversity…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-02-11 Lu Liu , Yang Tang , Kexuan Zhang , Qiyu Sun

We present a method for assessing the sensitivity of the true causal effect to unmeasured confounding. The method requires the analyst to set two intuitive parameters. Otherwise, the method is assumption-free. The method returns an interval…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-02-07 Jose M. Peña

The notion of causal effect is fundamental across many scientific disciplines. Traditionally, quantitative researchers have studied causal effects at the level of variables; for example, how a certain drug dose (W) causally affects a…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-04-07 Junhyung Park , Yuqing Zhou

Design-based causal inference, also known as randomization-based or finite-population causal inference, is one of the most widely used causal inference frameworks, largely due to the merit that its validity can be guaranteed by study design…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-05-27 Siyu Heng , Jiawei Zhang , Yang Feng

In this paper, we introduce a new causal methodology that accounts for the rarity and frequency of events in observational studies based on their relevance to the underlying problem. Specifically, we propose a direct causal effect metric…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2025-02-28 Usef Faghihi , Amir Saki

Artificial intelligence models and methods commonly lack causal interpretability. Despite the advancements in interpretable machine learning (IML) methods, they frequently assign importance to features which lack causal influence on the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-01-29 Francisco Nunes Ferreira Quialheiro Simoes , Mehdi Dastani , Thijs van Ommen
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