Related papers: Complete left tail asymptotic for branching proces…

Let F be a distribution function with negative mean and regularly varying right tail. Under a mild smoothness condition we derive higher order asymptotic expansions for the tail distribution of the maxima of the random walk generated by F.…

Wright-Fisher diffusions and their dual ancestral graphs occupy a central role in the study of allele frequency change and genealogical structure, and they provide expressions, explicit in some special cases but generally implicit, for the…

We consider branching random walks and contact processes on infinite, connected, locally finite graphs whose reproduction and infectivity rates across edges are inversely proportional to vertex degree. We show that when the ambient graph is…

We define a large class of multifractal random measures and processes with arbitrary log-infinitely divisible exact or asymptotic scaling law. These processes generalize within a unified framework both the recently defined log-normal…

We consider the problem of probabilistic quantification of dynamical systems that have heavy-tailed characteristics. These heavy-tailed features are associated with rare transient responses due to the occurrence of internal instabilities.…

We present a flexible, deterministic numerical method for computing left-tail rare events of sums of non-negative, independent random variables. The method is based on iterative numerical integration of linear convolutions by means of…

The martingale posterior framework is a generalization of Bayesian inference where one elicits a sequence of one-step ahead predictive densities instead of the likelihood and prior. Posterior sampling then involves the imputation of unseen…

For a spatial characteristic, there exist commonly fat-tail frequency distributions of fragment-size and -mass of glass, areas enclosed by city roads, and pore size/volume in random packings. In order to give a new analytical approach for…

We establish sharp asymptotic bounds for the critical intensity of the Finitary Random Interlacements (FRI) model in four and higher dimensions with general trajectory length distributions. Our proof reveals that the construction of…

Asymptotic expansions are derived for the tail distribution of the product of two correlated normal random variables with non-zero means and arbitrary variances, and more generally the sum of independent copies of such random variables.…

We investigate Galton--Watson processes in varying environment, for which $\bar f_n \uparrow 1$ and $\sum_{n=1}^\infty (1-\bar f_n) = \infty$, where $\bar f_n$ stands for the offspring mean in generation $n$. Since the process dies out…

Let $X_1,\dots,X_n$ be independent normal random variables with $X_i\sim N(\mu_i,\sigma_i^2)$, and set $Z=\prod_{i=1}^n X_i$. We derive asymptotic approximations for the right tail probability $\mathbb{P}(Z>x)$ as $x\to\infty$. When at…

In this paper non-asymptotic exponential estimates are derived for tail of maximum martingale distribution by naturally norming in the spirit of the classical Law of Iterated Logarithm. Key words: Martingales, exponential estimations,…

The quasi-likelihood estimator and the Bayesian type estimator of the volatility parameter are in general asymptotically mixed normal. In case the limit is normal, the asymptotic expansion was derived in Yoshida (1997) as an application of…

We analyze the left-tail asymptotics of deformed Tracy-Widom distribution functions describing the fluctuations of the largest eigenvalue in invariant random matrix ensembles after removing each soft edge eigenvalue independently with…

We obtain asymptotic approximations for the probability density function of the product of two correlated normal random variables with non-zero means and arbitrary variances. As a consequence, we deduce asymptotic approximations for the…

For a centered $d$-dimensional Gaussian random vector $\xi =(\xi_1,\ldots,\xi_d)$ and a homogeneous function $h:R^d\to R$ we derive asymptotic expansions for the tail of the Gaussian chaos $h(\xi)$ given the function $h$ is sufficiently…

In this work, we propose a class of importance sampling (IS) estimators for estimating the right tail probability of a sum of continuous random variables based on a change of variables to $L^1$ polar coordinates in which the radial and…

We derive in this preprint the moment and exponential tail estimates, sufficient conditions for the Non-Central Limit Theorem (NCLT) in the ordinary one-dimensional space as well as in the space of continuous functions for the properly…

This paper provides a detailed description for the asymptotics of exponential functionals of random walks with light/heavy tails. We give the convergence rate based on the key observation that the asymptotics depends on the sample paths…