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We develop a finite-sample optimal estimator for regression discontinuity design when the outcomes are bounded, including binary outcomes as the leading case. Our estimator achieves minimax mean squared error among linear shrinkage…

Econometrics · Economics 2025-12-29 Takuya Ishihara , Masayuki Sawada , Kohei Yata

Causal inference methods are widely applied in the fields of medicine, policy, and economics. Central to these applications is the estimation of treatment effects to make decisions. Current methods make binary yes-or-no decisions based on…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-04-24 Will Y. Zou , Smitha Shyam , Michael Mui , Mingshi Wang , Jan Pedersen , Zoubin Ghahramani

This PhD thesis contains several contributions to the field of statistical causal modeling. Statistical causal models are statistical models embedded with causal assumptions that allow for the inference and reasoning about the behavior of…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2021-10-05 Martin Emil Jakobsen

Functional data is a powerful tool for capturing and analyzing complex patterns and relationships in a variety of fields, allowing for more precise modeling, visualization, and decision-making. For example, in healthcare, functional data…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-04-26 Xiyuan Gao , Jiayi Wang , Guanyu Hu , Jianguo Sun

A key challenge in environmental health research is unmeasured spatial confounding, driven by unobserved spatially structured variables that influence both treatment and outcome. A common approach is to fit a spatial regression that models…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-12-23 Sophie M. Woodward , Francesca Dominici , Jose R. Zubizarreta

Estimating causal effects is particularly challenging when outcomes arise in complex, non-Euclidean spaces, where conventional methods often fail to capture meaningful structural variation. We develop a framework for topological causal…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-03-04 Kwangho Kim , Hajin Lee

Estimating how a treatment affects units individually, known as heterogeneous treatment effect (HTE) estimation, is an essential part of decision-making and policy implementation. The accumulation of large amounts of data in many domains,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-06-28 Christopher Tran , Elena Zheleva

In this study, a scalable online kernel learning framework is proposed for estimating bidirectional causal effects in systems characterized by mutual dependence and heteroskedasticity. Traditional causal inference often focuses on…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-11-24 Masahiro Tanaka

Local Fr\'echet regression is a nonparametric regression method for metric space valued responses and Euclidean predictors, which can be utilized to obtain estimates of smooth trajectories taking values in general metric spaces from noisy…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-07-07 Yaqing Chen , Hans-Georg Müller

Most work in causal inference considers deterministic interventions that set each unit's treatment to some fixed value. However, under positivity violations these interventions can lead to non-identification, inefficiency, and effects with…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-06-20 Edward H. Kennedy

Single index models provide an effective dimension reduction tool in regression, especially for high dimensional data, by projecting a general multivariate predictor onto a direction vector. We propose a novel single-index model for…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-07-13 Satarupa Bhattacharjee , Hans-Georg Müller

The method of instrumental variables provides a fundamental and practical tool for causal inference in many empirical studies where unmeasured confounding between the treatments and the outcome is present. Modern data such as the genetical…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-10-28 Ziang Niu , Yuwen Gu , Wei Li

We propose nonparametric Bayesian estimators for causal inference exploiting Regression Discontinuity/Kink (RD/RK) under sharp and fuzzy designs. Our estimators are based on Gaussian Process (GP) regression and classification. The GP…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-03-01 Ximing Wu

Regression with non-Euclidean responses -- e.g., probability distributions, networks, symmetric positive-definite matrices, and compositions -- has become increasingly important in modern applications. In this paper, we propose deep…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-10-21 Kyum Kim , Yaqing Chen , Paromita Dubey

The spatial scan statistic is widely used to detect disease clusters in epidemiological surveillance. Since the seminal work by~\cite{kulldorff1997}, numerous extensions have emerged, including methods for defining scan regions, detecting…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-02-11 Takayuki Kawashima , Daisuke Yoneoka , Yuta Tanoue , Akifumi Eguchi , Shuhei Nomura

To detect changes in the mean of a time series, one may use previsible detection procedures based on nonparametric kernel prediction smoothers which cover various classic detection statistics as special cases. Bandwidth selection,…

Probability · Mathematics 2018-03-20 Ansgar Steland

This paper studies causal inference with observational data from a single large network. We consider a nonparametric model with interference in both potential outcomes and selection into treatment. Specifically, both stages may be the…

Econometrics · Economics 2025-12-30 Michael P. Leung , Pantelis Loupos

We aim to generalize the results of a randomized controlled trial (RCT) to a target population with the help of some observational data. This is a problem of causal effect identification with multiple data sources. Challenges arise when the…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-06-15 Juha Karvanen

Across many scientific disciplines, multiple observations are collected from the same experimental units, and in modern datasets these observations often arise as non-Euclidean random objects. In such settings, the incorporation of random…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-05-05 Marcos Matabuena , Mateo Cámara

Many rare diseases offer limited established treatment options, leading patients to switch therapies when new medications emerge. To analyze the impact of such treatment switches within the low sample size limitations of rare disease…

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