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Reliable decision-making in complex multi-agent systems requires calibrated predictions and interpretable uncertainty. We introduce SphUnc, a unified framework combining hyperspherical representation learning with structural causal…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-04-23 Rong Fu , Chunlei Meng , Jinshuo Liu , Dianyu Zhao , Yongtai Liu , Yibo Meng , Xiaowen Ma , Wangyu Wu , Yangchen Zeng , Shuaishuai Cao , Simon Fong

Traditionally, statistical and causal inference on human subjects rely on the assumption that individuals are independently affected by treatments or exposures. However, recently there has been increasing interest in settings, such as…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-02-25 Elizabeth L. Ogburn , Ilya Shpitser , Youjin Lee

Human social behavior is organized in stratified, hierarchical networks, with a support group with about 5 members, expanding proportionally at each layer up to a maximum of approximately 150 frequent interactions per individual. This is…

Physics and Society · Physics 2025-10-20 Airton Deppman

We address the problem of estimating causal effects from observational data in the presence of network confounding, a setting where both treatment assignment and observed outcomes of individuals may be influenced by their neighbors within a…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-03-24 Abhishek Dalvi , Neil Ashtekar , Vasant Honavar

Can the direction of time and the causal structure of space-time be inferred from operational principles? Causal models and tensor networks offer complementary perspectives: the former encodes cause-effect relations via directed graphs,…

Quantum Physics · Physics 2026-03-16 Carla Ferradini , Giulia Mazzola , V. Vilasini

Information and individual activities often spread globally through the network of social ties. While social contagion phenomena have been extensively studied within the framework of threshold models, it is common to make an assumption that…

Physics and Society · Physics 2023-06-07 Teruyoshi Kobayashi

Causal discovery from observational data is challenging, especially with large datasets and complex relationships. Traditional methods often struggle with scalability and capturing global structural information. To overcome these…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-07-29 Rezaur Rashid , Gabriel Terejanu

Graph data is becoming increasingly prevalent due to the growing demand for relational insights in AI across various domains. Organizations regularly use graph data to solve complex problems involving relationships and connections. Causal…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-02-23 Simi Job , Xiaohui Tao , Taotao Cai , Haoran Xie , Jianming Yong , Xin Wang

Crime prediction is crucial for public safety and resource optimization, yet is very challenging due to two aspects: i) the dynamics of criminal patterns across time and space, crime events are distributed unevenly on both spatial and…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-04-26 Lianghao Xia , Chao Huang , Yong Xu , Peng Dai , Liefeng Bo , Xiyue Zhang , Tianyi Chen

Modeling uncertainty in deep neural networks, despite recent important advances, is still an open problem. Bayesian neural networks are a powerful solution, where the prior over network weights is a design choice, often a normal…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2019-10-29 Raanan Y. Rohekar , Yaniv Gurwicz , Shami Nisimov , Gal Novik

The Linear Threshold Model is a widely used model that describes how information diffuses through a social network. According to this model, an individual adopts an idea or product after the proportion of their neighbors who have adopted it…

Social and Information Networks · Computer Science 2022-01-28 Christopher Tran , Elena Zheleva

Modern sociology has profoundly uncovered many convincing social criteria for behavioural analysis. Unfortunately, many of them are too subjective to be measured and presented in online social networks. On the other hand, data mining…

Social and Information Networks · Computer Science 2023-01-09 Xiangguo Sun , Hong Cheng , Bo Liu , Jia Li , Hongyang Chen , Guandong Xu , Hongzhi Yin

The importance of higher-order relations is widely recognized in a large number of real-world systems. However, annotating them is a tedious and sometimes impossible task. Consequently, current approaches for data modelling either ignore…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-06-06 Iulia Duta , Pietro Liò

This paper investigates causal influences between agents linked by a social graph and interacting over time. In particular, the work examines the dynamics of social learning models and distributed decision-making protocols, and derives…

Social and Information Networks · Computer Science 2026-05-19 Mert Kayaalp , Ali H. Sayed

Our understanding of the dynamics of complex networked systems has increased significantly in the last two decades. However, most of our knowledge is built upon assuming pairwise relations among the system's components. This is often an…

Physics and Society · Physics 2020-04-15 Guilherme Ferraz de Arruda , Giovanni Petri , Yamir Moreno

Accurate epidemic forecasting is crucial for effective disease control and prevention. Traditional compartmental models often struggle to estimate temporally and spatially varying epidemiological parameters, while deep learning models…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-04-08 Shuai Han , Lukas Stelz , Thomas R. Sokolowski , Kai Zhou , Horst Stöcker

Technologies to predict human actions are extremely important for applications such as human robot cooperation and autonomous driving. However, a majority of the existing algorithms focus on exploiting visual features of the videos and do…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2019-12-12 Bo Chen , Decai Li , Yuqing He , Chunsheng Hua

Hypergraph neural networks are a class of powerful models that leverage the message passing paradigm to learn over hypergraphs, a generalization of graphs well-suited to describing relational data with higher-order interactions. However,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-10-11 Shiye Su , Iulia Duta , Lucie Charlotte Magister , Pietro Liò

Structural causal models postulate noisy functional relations among a set of interacting variables. The causal structure underlying each such model is naturally represented by a directed graph whose edges indicate for each variable which…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2022-03-15 David Strieder , Tobias Freidling , Stefan Haffner , Mathias Drton

Heterogeneous graph neural networks have become popular in various domains. However, their generalizability and interpretability are limited due to the discrepancy between their inherent inference flows and human reasoning logic or…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-12-12 Tianqianjin Lin , Kaisong Song , Zhuoren Jiang , Yangyang Kang , Weikang Yuan , Xurui Li , Changlong Sun , Cui Huang , Xiaozhong Liu
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