Related papers: Regularized Targeted Maximum Likelihood Estimation…

Asymptotic efficiency of targeted maximum likelihood estimators (TMLE) of target features of the data distribution relies on a a second order remainder being asymptotically negligible. In previous work we proposed a nonparametric MLE termed…

Causal mediation analysis with random interventions has become an area of significant interest for understanding time-varying effects with longitudinal and survival outcomes. To tackle causal and statistical challenges due to the complex…

The Highly-Adaptive-Lasso(HAL)-TMLE is an efficient estimator of a pathwise differentiable parameter in a statistical model that at minimal (and possibly only) assumes that the sectional variation norm of the true nuisance parameters are…

Targeted maximum likelihood estimation (TMLE) is a general method for estimating parameters in semiparametric and nonparametric models. Each iteration of TMLE involves fitting a parametric submodel that targets the parameter of interest. We…

Targeted maximum likelihood estimators (TMLEs) are asymptotically optimal among regular, asymptotically linear estimators. In small samples, however, we may be far from "asymptopia" and not reap the benefits of optimality. Here we propose a…

The Highly-Adaptive-LASSO Targeted Minimum Loss Estimator (HAL-TMLE) is an efficient plug-in estimator of a pathwise differentiable parameter in a statistical model that at minimal (and possibly only) assumes that the sectional variation…

We consider estimation of a functional parameter of a realistically modeled data distribution based on observing independent and identically distributed observations. We define an $m$-th order Spline Highly Adaptive Lasso Minimum Loss…

Adaptive experimental designs have gained popularity in clinical trials and online experiments. Unlike traditional, fixed experimental designs, adaptive designs can dynamically adjust treatment randomization probabilities and other design…

Consider the case that we observe $n$ independent and identically distributed copies of a random variable with a probability distribution known to be an element of a specified statistical model. We are interested in estimating an infinite…

Estimating and obtaining reliable inference for the marginally adjusted causal dose-response curve for continuous treatments without relying on parametric assumptions is a well-known statistical challenge. Parametric models risk introducing…

Current Targeted Maximum Likelihood Estimation (TMLE) methods used to analyze time-to-event data estimate the survival probability for each time point separately, which result in estimates that are not necessarily monotone. In this paper,…

Estimating the mean counterfactual outcome under a treatment rule is a central problem in causal inference and policy evaluation. Standard estimators, including inverse probability weighting (IPW), augmented IPW (AIPW), and targeted maximum…

We introduce the Meta Highly-Adaptive-Lasso Minimum Loss Estimator (M-HAL-MLE), a novel ensemble approach for estimating functional parameters of realistically modeled data distribution from independent and identically distributed…

The Laplace approximation (LA) has been proposed as a method for approximating the marginal likelihood of statistical models with latent variables. However, the approximate maximum likelihood estimators (MLEs) based on the LA are often…

Survival is a key metric for evaluating standards of care for people living with HIV. In resource-limited settings, high rates of loss to follow-up (LTFU) often result in underestimation of mortality when only observed deaths are…

We advocate for a practical Maximum Likelihood Estimation (MLE) approach towards designing loss functions for regression and forecasting, as an alternative to the typical approach of direct empirical risk minimization on a specific target…

Estimating the conditional mean function is a central task in statistical learning. In this paper, we consider estimation and inference for a nonparametric class of real-valued cadlag functions with bounded sectional variation (Gill et al.,…

Longitudinal targeted maximum likelihood estimation (LTMLE) has very rarely been used to estimate dynamic treatment effects in the context of time-dependent confounding affected by prior treatment when faced with long follow-up times,…

We propose a novel, fully nonparametric approach for the multi-task learning, the Multi-task Highly Adaptive Lasso (MT-HAL). MT-HAL simultaneously learns features, samples and task associations important for the common model, while imposing…

We study targeted maximum likelihood estimation (TMLE) of the average treatment effect in a semiparametric regression model whose mean function is indexed by a finite-dimensional parameter, while the additive error distribution is left…